Cuomo v. Teachout

[xavier110]

Don't be surprised see both Teachout and Wu underperform. Cuomo is pulling out all the stops in parts of the state with support from territorial/iconic elected officials, such as those in the Hasidic Jewish community that can pull in tens of thousands of votes. Such is the case with some of the Caribbean communities, where 1199 SEIU health care union has been pulling its strings for Cuomo and Hochul.

What would you consider an underperformance though?

Barring Teachout and Wu both gettung under 15%, I think they will over-preform. I mean, they both started out unknown.

Any challenger (even a perennial non-candidate) will get some % of the vote, probably 10% at very least maybe even 15%. After all, Gail Goode, got 24% of the vote against Gillibrand in the 2010 Senate primary election and no one, literally, no one knew who Goode was. She got no endorsements, etc.

If Teachout gets under 30% of the vote, I think that would be a disappointment.

Yeah, I agree with that. Just two weeks ago, that was the number that was the talk of the political class — Cuomo's people were dismissing 25% as what any "protest vote" starts with. She must be well above 30% by now.

[xavier110]

Hillary Clinton is robocalling for Cuomo/Hochul

[xavier110]

Everyone is throwing around different numbers. Union organizer that's backing Cuomo says Hochul will pass 70. (I'm doubtful about that.) Only four days left!

http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2014/09/cuomo-hochul-first-priority-for-1199seiu/

[xavier110]

Who doesn't want a three-way battle for governor?

[xavier110]

This is the most amazing thing I've ever seen

http://www.newyorktrue.com/labor-day-parade-2014/

[xavier110]

I have to wonder how things would be going if it was a Wu/Teachout ticket - Wu for Governor, and Teachout for Lieutenant Governor.

Teachout is considerably more charismatic and better at retail politicking... so I think Wu would be performing worse

[xavier110]

The Cuomo ignoring Teachout video has already racked up 50,000 views on vimeo alone. Lol, this primary! I love how in the dark we are — and how little makes sense. (For example, I think Teachout will perform very strongly in upstate, but I have no idea how Wu will fare.)

eta: Teachout's also robocalling about how Cuomo accepted $80k from Koch family in 2010 race

[xavier110]

The reason why I think upstate is where Teachout will do relatively well -- her thriving social media, especially FB, is nearly all upstate people. It's a little ridiculous, but look at all the people who share, like, and post. They're from upstate, and they seem to be the most angry about fracking, Common Core, and Cuomo generally.

[xavier110]

What has been so odd about this race is that there are virtually no public polls showing Cuomo in danger of Teachout (or Hochul of Wu) yet my friends and I (especially my friends who are very much in the know either working for officials/unions etc) feel that there is something about this election that really puts Cuomo in a hard place. It's as if there's some sort of magical aura.

There haven't been any public polls at all.

But yeah, I know what you're talking about. It does feel like something strange could happen.

I have a lot of friends who are registered Democrats and everyone I've talked to is either voting for Teachout or not voting at all. I can't find any Cuomo voters. I guess most of them are at old folks homes.

Well, Moreland unfolded a month ago, and since then Cuomo has received nearly uniformly bad press. (That alone, I would say has put him at the level of the "unknown" Gillibrand among Dem primary voters.)


Also, this shouldn't surprise anyone, but Cuomo's been threatening elected Dems who may want to endorse Teachout:
http://nypost.com/2014/09/08/cuomo-and-de-blasio-intimidate-democrats-backing-teachout/

[xavier110]

Also, everyone, please look at these statistics before comparing Teachout to typical protest candidates:

Teachout trumps Crist in references on Twitter: http://topsy.com/analytics?q1=zephyr%20teachout&q2=charlie%20crist&via=Topsy

She's everyone trumped Cuomo (full names) recently: http://topsy.com/analytics?q1=zephyr%20teachout&q2=andrew%20cuomo&via=Topsy

Last names, there's a wider gap in Cuomo's favor: http://topsy.com/analytics?q1=teachout&q2=cuomo&via=Topsy

But, for perspective, let's throw in Astorino: http://topsy.com/analytics?q1=zephyr%20teachout&q2=andrew%20cuomo&q3=rob%20astorino&via=Topsy

http://topsy.com/analytics?q1=teachout&q2=cuomo&q3=astorino&via=Topsy


I just don't know how some dismiss her so quickly. Anyway, tomorrow(!) is judgment day!

[xavier110]

The Teachout social media stuff is insane. Like compare any result vs. searching Cuomo. A few reporters have pointed this out, but yes, enthusiasm is on Teachout's side.

I got my mother and her friend, both in Suffolk, to go off and vote Teachout/Wu. Did my duty.

[xavier110]

I told y'all she would win counties upstate! I didn't expect half of the state, but yeah. She almost hit 40% - to all the people who scoffed earlier, ha.

Anyway, it looks like she won a mix of anti-fracking/Common Core voters as well as educated (wealthy) white liberals. For example, her surprisingly close showing in Suffolk County suggests that she won the rich enclaves/towns of Southampton and East Hampton. Minority communities killed her.

[xavier110]

How much was Teachout's victory in Romney counties due to Republicans trying to unseat Cuomo?

It's a closed primary...

[xavier110]

And yup, to follow up what I said before - Teachout won Long Island's bougie, educated areas, lost minority communities. That's the pattern you see across the state, largely

 http://www.newsday.com/long-island/cuomo-stronger-on-south-shore-teachout-on-east-end-1.9281287