Agree or disagree: The debates will determine Biden's fate.

[Obama24]

I have argued over and over that there has been a consistent failure of this administration to:

1) Sell their accomplishments to the public

2) Successfully counter the image of Biden as asleep at the wheel / frail / having dementia etc, instead of creating the image of him as a hard worker for the American people that is sacrificing his golden years for the people.

3) Successfully counter the perception that the economy isn't good, or, effectively seed blame for things such as inflation as being a result of Trump's massive Covid spending

4) Failed among the average voter to really sell the differences between Biden and Trump in any meaningful way.

Your average non-partisan voter really  does not care about January 6th 2021.

I don't think many grasp that to a hungry family, democracy isn't the sanctity of a building that houses unpopular people in Washington, it's someone being able to put food on their table. To a person struggling to make rent, democracy isn't some hallowed virtue but rather the ability to live in freedom of fear from eviction. Democracy becomes an abstract for one because of our poor educational system and because ultimately people value their wallets over ideals.

5) Has failed to make young voters and voters of color, who are among the cornerstones of the Democratic Party, sufficiently excited, engaged, and enthusiastic. Low turn out traditionally is the death of a Democratic administration.

Obama due to both the novelty of his biracial heritage but also because of his natural charisma, his hard work and outreach and PR campaigns and engagement, held and still holds a sway over the youth of America even today. He'd win a 300+ EV if he could run this year.

Bill Clinton presented himself as a young, energetic, dedicated worker of the American people and essentially was the 90s version of JFK. Biden doesn't inspire any similar enthusiasm, nor does he have any similar charisma to either of his immediate Dem predecessors.

We are an apathetic, increasingly low attention having society who values the security of our wallets over most things.

We have 300 million people or so, yet, only a little over half the eligible voters of this country tend to vote with any regularity in Presidential elections. Most people simply do not care enough about this Republic or the democracy which governs it enough to sustain it, truthfully.

What people care about is image, and perception, rather than reality.

The economy is doing pretty well, but the working class person and the young voter aren't feeling that boom trickle down. There are many institutional failures such as a hard job market and unfair employment standards that have left many jaded. There is the perception that we are in a malaise even if this isn't statistically accurate.

As such, I feel that the debates - however many there will be - are Biden's last chance to turn the ship around, to present himself as an effective and strong leader who has been working hard for people. To show yes, he's old, but he's not frail or demented. To show he's the better alternative to a section of the public that doesn't see any meaningful difference in their lives from D to R or R to D.

The debates this year more than anything else will make or break this election, not any criminal conviction if there is any.

Agree? Or disagree?

[Obama24]

I actually agree with this, at least to some extent. Biden's been letting Trump dominate the news cycle, which is his biggest mistake. Trump's a fool to agree to debate - he's leading!

I'd also blame the news media for covering every fart he makes. They've been guilty of this since 2015 because he is the ultimate form of clickbait and they are desperate for views. If Trump wasn't normalized by the media as soon as he declared a good chunk of Mexicans rapists, he'd never have had the Presidency. I feel the mainstream media is just as guilty as Trump himself for creating and building MAGA.

And I agree, Trump only really stands to lose if he debates Joe.

I don't really see an upside. Why give your opponent air time when you're leading?

Unless, of course, you yourself are scared the polls are wrong. Or you're just that deeply insecure and easily led by ego.

If Biden comes off like he did at the SOTU, or is even basically just coherent, he'll be seen as the winner; in the public's perception of Biden, the bar is that low. And Biden will be, I feel, in attack mode the entire debate.

Trump is kinda used to weak opponents like Jeb or "Little Marco", who are overwhelmed by him; we saw in 2020 Biden isn't that way; or people who hold to traditional debate standards like Hillary; Biden as we saw in 2020 isn't afraid to go low if he has to. I can actually see a curse or two being slung at these debates given the absolute and accrued animosity between these two.

Also, Trump of 2024 isn't 2016 Trump. He doesn't himself have the same ADHD manic energy he used to. If he comes off the way he has in recent rallies, and Biden comes off just basically oriented to place and time, he'll lose the debate.

[Obama24]

I think there's a reason we have a debate before the conventions. Democrats still have a chance to replace Biden at the convention. This will be a litmus test to see if he can hack it and bring the race back and if he can't, there's always plan B. Republicans are unfortunately stuck with Trump regardless of what happens.

I actually think that's part of why there's been seeding for astro turf support of Kamala on Twitter etc. They're trying to set her up as the candidate who can get the youth vote. I think it's very possible Biden has been told to perform well or step down in June.

[Obama24]

I think there's a reason we have a debate before the conventions. Democrats still have a chance to replace Biden at the convention. This will be a litmus test to see if he can hack it and bring the race back and if he can't, there's always plan B. Republicans are unfortunately stuck with Trump regardless of what happens.

I actually think that's part of why there's been seeding for astro turf support of Kamala on Twitter etc. They're trying to set her up as the candidate who can get the youth vote. I think it's very possible Biden has been told to perform well or step down in June.

And who exactly is telling him this

DNC figures. If you think they're happy with the poll numbers, I assure you they're not. I actually think Kamala would have a better chance of beating Trump than Biden does.