Perceptions of the economy, and history's echo.

[Obama24]

History is often said to echo rather than directly be replicated.

Back in 1992, America was in what was at the time called a jobless recovery. The prime period of actual recession (July 1990 - March 1991) had passed, yet despite the statistics, Americans in 1992 felt things could be better economically. It is because of this that the Clinton campaign focused on the economy - "it's the economy stupid" and the perception of a sluggish economy, it could be argued, was a big factor in his victory.

Now, in 2024, by numbers the economy has gotten out of the precarious position it was in in 2020-2022. Yet it seems that in the perception of a number of Americans, the economy is still poor. Even though we are technically out of the worst of the economic downturn, Americans still feel wages are too small and inflation, especially in food, is still high. Will Trump be able to use this perception that the economy "is bad" to win?

[Obama24]

That's the only reason Trump can win.

Simultaneously, Trump being his opponent is a big reason why Biden can still win.

I think Biden is ironically now probably one of the few Democrats that could lose, actually. Had, say, Michelle Obama had run this year, she'd have won in a landslide. I think even Hillary Clinton could've done a better job and actually beaten him this time. The nostalgia for the 90s is a lot stronger now than it was in 2016, even among Gen Z who wasn't even alive for most of it. I think the time is also more right for a female President.

Frankly, the idea should've been Biden wins in 2020. He presides over the end of Covid and is seen as a guy who stopped Trump in 2020. Legacy secure, he passes the ball to a younger and/or stronger Democrat with a stronger brand than him to win against Trump again in 2024.

[Obama24]

That's the only reason Trump can win.

Simultaneously, Trump being his opponent is a big reason why Biden can still win.

I think Biden is ironically now probably one of the few Democrats that could lose, actually. Had, say, Michelle Obama had run this year, she'd have won in a landslide. I think even Hillary Clinton could've done a better job and actually beaten him this time. The nostalgia for the 90s is a lot stronger now than it was in 2016, even among Gen Z who wasn't even alive for most of it. I think the time is also more right for a female President.

Frankly, the idea should've been Biden wins in 2020. He presides over the end of Covid and is seen as a guy who stopped Trump in 2020. Legacy secure, he passes the ball to a younger and/or stronger Democrat with a stronger brand than him to win against Trump again in 2024.

On the contrary, Bill Clinton neutralizes a lot of Trump's weaknesses. Imagine Bill being around while Stormy Daniels is testifying at Trump's trial.

I do agree regarding the first part, but Clinton nostalgia peaked in the mid 2000s and has depreciated ever since.

Gotta disagree with that. Your terminally online person really only cares about Clinton's indiscretions...And I think your average person is more nostalgic now. for the 90s in general - cost of living, the reach of a dollar, etc - even if they're not nostalgic for the Clintons per se.

Trump is also uniquely horrifying compared even to Bill - Sexualizing his own daughter, Daniels coming out and saying he reminded her of his daughter, etc.

Also, we had 4 years of Trump and everything Hillary said about him ended up being vindicated.

[Obama24]

Who is the economy bad for? My stock portfolio is doing wonderfully, my salary continues to rocket, and I don't know anyone struggling. I just don't understand

Working class people. Not everyone lives on the golf course.

[Obama24]

That's the only reason Trump can win.

Simultaneously, Trump being his opponent is a big reason why Biden can still win.

I think Biden is ironically now probably one of the few Democrats that could lose, actually. Had, say, Michelle Obama had run this year, she'd have won in a landslide. I think even Hillary Clinton could've done a better job and actually beaten him this time. The nostalgia for the 90s is a lot stronger now than it was in 2016, even among Gen Z who wasn't even alive for most of it. I think the time is also more right for a female President.

Frankly, the idea should've been Biden wins in 2020. He presides over the end of Covid and is seen as a guy who stopped Trump in 2020. Legacy secure, he passes the ball to a younger and/or stronger Democrat with a stronger brand than him to win against Trump again in 2024.

Just curious though if you had to predict the election RN, what would you say your prediction is?

I say lean Trump at the moment, but it feels like it changes from week to week RN. Ask me again in October.