State Legislatures and Redistricting

[nhmagic]

Hilarious that New Hampshire's legislature is about as Republican as Utah's and only behind unambiguously behind Wyoming.

I am also surprised at the the strength of some of other the new Republican majorities. The newly-Republican Alabama Senate is close to a 2/3 majority. For a state that had such large DFL majorities before, Minnesota's Republican majorities are not large but not the razor-thin ones I expected. Maine Senate 60% GOP? I didn't even realise the chamber was considered competitive. (Interestingly, Maine now has a GOP redistricting trifecta, not that it matters much in a state with two districts. Perhaps you could draw an R+1 district?) The Arkansas House, while still majority Democratic, is only 55% from 72% before, and the GOP notoriously failed to nominate candidates that might have won this year.

Yes they could draw an R+1 district in ME, itd look funny and would cost Obama an electoral vote in 2012.

Also, NHs legislature is now veto proof, so technically not a trifecta, but Lynch doesnt really have a say in anything.

[nhmagic]

Yes they could draw an R+1 district in ME, itd look funny and would cost Obama an electoral vote in 2012.

Also, NHs legislature is now veto proof, so technically not a trifecta, but Lynch doesnt really have a say in anything.

Remember - even an R+1 district leaned Democratic in 2008.  Why?  THe Cook PVI ratings are based on the 2004 and 2008 AVERAGE margin vs. the national margin, and Bush won in 2004. You'd need the 2012 national mood to meet the 2004 and 2008 average in order for an R+1 district to cost Obama an electoral vote.

Thats true...forgot about that.  Still, it would mean hed have to work for it in that district probably.