2010 Indiana Senate and Congressional Elections

[nhmagic]

I think Bayh's vote on the Health Care Bill will determine how he does. I think the election could get interestingly close if Bayh votes for the Health Care Bill. I'll tell you now, I think Ellsworth's approval ratings dropped 15 points or more since voting for that Health Care Bill. I campaigned for him in `06 and `08, and I am extremely ticked with him now.

The thing you have to respect about Ellsworth -- whether you like the health care bill or not -- is that he voted for it knowing it was a loser in his district and may well cost him his seat.  Of course, the same would be true of a Republican who voted against it in a district where the issue was a winner.  Dave Reichart might be that guy.  

But yeah, you're right.  We will probably see both Ellsworth and Donnelly dumped in 2010.

How much of a democrat is Ellsworth.  I mean he was the former sherrif right?  I don't necessarily think his vote was principled - he needs big money to win as a democrat in Indiana, and the dems would hang him out to dry if he didnt vote for it.  I feel like both these guys jumped in only because they had a chance to win as a democrat.  The other question is which are most likely to switch to the republican party?  I know Indiana (my family for one) dems, and they are about as moderate of dems as you can get.  Bayh for all intents and purposes has been the only moderate democrat outside of Lieberman.

[nhmagic]

I think Bayh's vote on the Health Care Bill will determine how he does. I think the election could get interestingly close if Bayh votes for the Health Care Bill. I'll tell you now, I think Ellsworth's approval ratings dropped 15 points or more since voting for that Health Care Bill. I campaigned for him in `06 and `08, and I am extremely ticked with him now.

The thing you have to respect about Ellsworth -- whether you like the health care bill or not -- is that he voted for it knowing it was a loser in his district and may well cost him his seat.  Of course, the same would be true of a Republican who voted against it in a district where the issue was a winner.  Dave Reichart might be that guy.  

But yeah, you're right.  We will probably see both Ellsworth and Donnelly dumped in 2010.

How much of a democrat is Ellsworth.  I mean he was the former sherrif right?  I don't necessarily think his vote was principled - he needs big money to win as a democrat in Indiana, and the dems would hang him out to dry if he didnt vote for it.  I feel like both these guys jumped in only because they had a chance to win as a democrat.  The other question is which are most likely to switch to the republican party?  I know Indiana (my family for one) dems, and they are about as moderate of dems as you can get.  Bayh for all intents and purposes has been the only moderate democrat outside of Lieberman.

You're pretty close to being correct, I think.  We have a saying..."Come to Indiana, where our Democrats are Republicans and our Republicans are Constitution Party Members."

Bayh is still pro-choice, but barely.  I would say there are many more moderate Democrats than Lieberman.  Even if you want to factor in his attention-whore campaigning for every Tom, Dick and Sarah with an R by their name, Lieberman still votes pro-choice, pro-gay (for the most part) and pro-environment.  Not sure if he remains anti-gun.  He does seem to be moderating fiscally.  And his foreign policy has been simple -- "Whatever the IDF wants."

But taken as a whole, I would suggest that Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu, Mark Pryor and quite probably Mark Begich and Kay Hagan are more conservative than Bayh.  Definitely more than Lieberman. 

Still, Bayh is about as far from the liberal warrior his father was. And you're spot-on.  There are hardly any liberal Democrats in Indiana.  They just don't win election.  Pete Visclosky does, but he gets elected largely based on the suburban Chicago and inner-city Gary votes.  The one inner city CD in Indianapolis tends to elect liberals.  But we'll never have a liberal Governor or Senator again.  At least not in my lifetime.

Frankly, though that makes me sad, I am relieved to have a Senator Lugar and a Senator Bayh.  As opposed to a Senator Quayle and Senator Coats.  Or a Senator Pence and Senator Souder.

I remember the last dem Indiana governor, O'Bannon, who caused my poor (as in monetarily poor) grandmother incredible pain when he raised property taxes and sent his minions out to collect.  Old people, left and right, were losing their homes.  Suffice to say, she and the rest of the state are very happy with Daniels.  Mark Begich and Kay Hagan have not shown me at all that they are anything but liberals.  Ben Nelson, Mark Pryor sure.  Landrieu sneaks by.  The downtown district could elect a republican in a wave - we got close a couple of times.

[nhmagic]

Carson almost lost IN7 a couple of times prior to her death, i think 2004 was one of those.  It's kind of hard though, 40% of that CD is republican (the west side, Broadripple) 60% of the CD is black and democrat (the east side, 38th st, Tibbs, et. al).  JSojourner, correct me if those elements are not in the district, it looks like it is though on the map.

[nhmagic]

JSoj: Where do you live in Indiana?  Are you rural, or Chicago/Michigan area?  I was born and raised in Indianapolis, moved to Phoenix when I was 11.  Dad still lives there.  It's changed a lot and has probably the cleanest downtown I've seen out of any city I've been to.  I lived in both the westside and the "ring around the ring" or the slum suburb ghetto right outside of city center .

Phips, thanks for the percentages...I can't remember where I got the idea that Carson's races were close...