Castle is IN!!! (user search)
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  Castle is IN!!! (search mode)
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Author Topic: Castle is IN!!!  (Read 8336 times)
nhmagic
azmagic
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,097
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.62, S: 4.61

« on: October 06, 2009, 08:19:42 PM »

IM SO EXCITED NOW. lol.


he already has a developed website: http://www.castleforsenate.com/
This already shows how aware he is of the possible competition.  Having a site right out the gate is essential these days and this one was obviously under professional development for awhile.  If he had lagged in this area, I would have been worried.  Nate Silver, a person I loathe, says his chances are north of 55-60% to win the seat.

Also, Beau Biden would be wise to wait.  If he is and likely will be defeated by Castle, that produces a stain upon future election prospects until a good democratic year comes along.  I highly doubt that year will be in the middle of the 6 year itch of Obamas presidency though - nearly every president loses a big amount of seats in the third midterm.  At the same time, if Obama loses re-election, then Biden would be in a prime position for a Republican midterm, which as history shows, makes it easier in most cases (excepting Bush).
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nhmagic
azmagic
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,097
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.62, S: 4.61

« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2009, 11:57:25 PM »

IM SO EXCITED NOW. lol.


he already has a developed website: http://www.castleforsenate.com/
This already shows how aware he is of the possible competition.  Having a site right out the gate is essential these days and this one was obviously under professional development for awhile.  If he had lagged in this area, I would have been worried.  Nate Silver, a person I loathe, says his chances are north of 55-60% to win the seat.

Also, Beau Biden would be wise to wait.  If he is and likely will be defeated by Castle, that produces a stain upon future election prospects until a good democratic year comes along.  I highly doubt that year will be in the middle of the 6 year itch of Obamas presidency though - nearly every president loses a big amount of seats in the third midterm.  At the same time, if Obama loses re-election, then Biden would be in a prime position for a Republican midterm, which as history shows, makes it easier in most cases (excepting Bush).

If Democrats have a bad 2010, they probably wont ALSO have a bad 2014.  Usually only one of the two midterms is bad.  
Thats not an accurate statement.  That has only been a phenomenon in the Bush (911 for his first midterm) and Clinton (impeachment backlash) years. The average midterm always produces a loss for the president.  1st midterm ave - 17 house seats, 1.1. senate seats / 2nd midterm ave - 29.8 house seats / 5.6 senate seats.  Now, what is rare are gigantor midterms on the level of 1994 and 2006.

See this link: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2006102601
Scroll down and it has a chart of midterms for presidents since Truman.
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