Arizona Supreme Court rules to uphold 1864 near total abortion ban

[mjba257]

This law is getting overturned. Probably soon. Like this week soon. It isn't slated to take effect for 14 days so that's enough time for a special session to be declared, pass it through the legislature, and for the governor to sign.

GOP knows this is terrible politically and are acting fast. Multiple prominent AZ Republicans have denounced the ruling. Question is will Dems go along? This ruling could be a godsend for them, but blocking an attempt to repeal could backfire because it show it's all about politics and any negative effects from the law can be blamed on them.

Downside for GOP is repealing the law could cause backlash from pro-life hardliners. But there is a golden opportunity to gain moderate bonafides. Whenever a Republican says they are 'moderate' on the abortion issue, they now have a record to point to backing it up.

[mjba257]

Republicans control both houses of the Arizona legislature, so I'm skeptical that they can just easily restore the status quo (15 week ban) in a quick special session.

I read (can't find the source) that they have the votes to do it, so long as the Democrats go along with it. The only way this gets forestalled is if the Dems block a repeal because they think this is good electorally for them. But of course that also carries a risk of backlash.

The smartest thing to do is just repeal the 1864 law. Repubs will tell their base that the 1864 law is out of step with the modern era and that the 15 week law is far more palatable today. There isn't a large evangelical population in AZ so the backlash from pro-lifers won't be as severe as some other places.

Dems, OTOH, can run on the fact that this even had to happen and if it weren't for them, this law wouldn't have been overturned so quickly. Try and keep it on the mind of voters and hope they don't forget by November (Americans have notoriously short memories).

[mjba257]

This law is getting overturned. Probably soon. Like this week soon. It isn't slated to take effect for 14 days so that's enough time for a special session to be declared, pass it through the legislature, and for the governor to sign.

GOP knows this is terrible politically and are acting fast. Multiple prominent AZ Republicans have denounced the ruling. Question is will Dems go along? This ruling could be a godsend for them, but blocking an attempt to repeal could backfire because it show it's all about politics and any negative effects from the law can be blamed on them.

Downside for GOP is repealing the law could cause backlash from pro-life hardliners. But there is a golden opportunity to gain moderate bonafides. Whenever a Republican says they are 'moderate' on the abortion issue, they now have a record to point to backing it up.

I don’t think this is the winning triangulation you think it is. The genie is out of the bottle now, regardless of whether the legislature tries to dial it back.

It’s like making a royal f***-up at work and then a week later semi-fixing your royal screw-up that shook your management’s confidence in you. There’s no real going back.

Americans have short memories. I have made mistakes at work (one of which was pretty bad on my part) and within a week, everyone had pretty much forgotten. And I still passed my evaluation with flying colors! If you are a smooth talker and can charm others, it's amazing the stuff you get away with.

[mjba257]

This law is getting overturned. Probably soon. Like this week soon. It isn't slated to take effect for 14 days so that's enough time for a special session to be declared, pass it through the legislature, and for the governor to sign.

GOP knows this is terrible politically and are acting fast. Multiple prominent AZ Republicans have denounced the ruling. Question is will Dems go along? This ruling could be a godsend for them, but blocking an attempt to repeal could backfire because it show it's all about politics and any negative effects from the law can be blamed on them.

Downside for GOP is repealing the law could cause backlash from pro-life hardliners. But there is a golden opportunity to gain moderate bonafides. Whenever a Republican says they are 'moderate' on the abortion issue, they now have a record to point to backing it up.

There's an upside for Ds in having a highly publicized special session with debate puts Rs on the defensive and drives one of the biggest possible wedges through the coalition. AZ GOP is already staring down the barrel this November, but it's good to get Republicans to tear themselves to pieces over this (they deserve it). It's just too bad that it couldn't happen sooner to election day.

Good. There needs to be a fine line drawn between the evangelicons and the moderate GOP. And because the Trump and Lake, the two most influential figures among Arizona Republicans, came out on the side of the moderates, that means the moderates probably win this battle. I want the GOP the moderate, particularly on these hot button issues. It's so ironic that it's the MAGA grifters, who I usually despise, may be what pushes the evangelicons out of the party.

[mjba257]

Republicans control both houses of the Arizona legislature, so I'm skeptical that they can just easily restore the status quo (15 week ban) in a quick special session.

I read (can't find the source) that they have the votes to do it, so long as the Democrats go along with it. The only way this gets forestalled is if the Dems block a repeal because they think this is good electorally for them. But of course that also carries a risk of backlash.

The smartest thing to do is just repeal the 1864 law. Repubs will tell their base that the 1864 law is out of step with the modern era and that the 15 week law is far more palatable today. There isn't a large evangelical population in AZ so the backlash from pro-lifers won't be as severe as some other places.

Dems, OTOH, can run on the fact that this even had to happen and if it weren't for them, this law wouldn't have been overturned so quickly. Try and keep it on the mind of voters and hope they don't forget by November (Americans have notoriously short memories).

We'll see. Do both party leaders support going back to the 15 week status quo? If so, the margins are narrow enough that the votes are probably there. Does Arizona have stalling tactics? I could see most of the Republicans in most houses doing everything they can to derail this, up to and including removing the leaders from their posts. I would also expect some of the "moderate" Republicans trying to "compromise" with repealing the 1864 law and replacing it with a 6- or 8-week ban.

But if the votes are there to go back to 15, I don't think there's any chance that Democrats block this and let Arizona go without any abortions for the next 6 months. That would be a complete betrayal of the women of the state and honestly would be a recallable offense from Hobbs.

I don't know what the rules of procedure in the AZ legislature is, all I can say is that the votes to get this overturned are there. Some pro-life Repubs may try stall tactics, but the AZ GOP takes marching orders directly from Trump & Lake and those two want this law gone. It's all about politics and what's politically beneficial to them. Trump isn't going to cede a crucial battleground state. If a hard-core pro-life Republican is going to grandstand and risk Trump's electoral chances in the state, they will be punished, mark my words.

[mjba257]

If a hard-core pro-life Republican is going to grandstand and risk Trump's electoral chances in the state, they will be punished, mark my words.

People who truly believe that abortion is literally murder aren't going to let threats of "punishment" stop them.

Think about it - if you lived in Germany in the 1940s and could single-handedly stop the Holocaust, and Hitler was like "you better not! I'll punish you!!" would you do it? The religious right sees abortion is equivalent to, or worse than the Holocaust.

And that is the setup to an intra-party civil war. All predicated on what the rules of procedures in the AZ legislature are, but if someone tries to stall, we all know how vindictive Trump is and the only thing he cares about is what is electorally beneficial to him. If this turns into a massive spat between Trump/MAGA Inc. and pro-life conservatives, that could cause a permanent rift between evangelicals and the GOP. Remember, for many evangelicals, abortion is the only reason they vote R. And if you have a party that punishes pro-life lawmakers and whose standard bearer who actively worked to kill a pro-life law, that could be a deal breaker for them.

[mjba257]

Republicans control both AZ chambers by exactly one vote, so in theory they only need 2 libertarian types to do a deal here (knowing the Western states, it's probably a lot more than that), and if Democrats block it, that's on them. 

Agree. Blocking a repeal carries way too high a risk of serious backlash. In politics, the safest answer is usually the best answer. And in this case, it is in both parties interests to get this law struck down and it's the correct thing to do.

[mjba257]

I don't think Democrats in the Arizona legislature would block a repeal of the 1864 law, but I'm uncertain whether Republicans will allow one to come up for a vote.  (Note: I'm assuming that the majority party controls the legislative agenda, as is done in the US Congress -- if this is wrong, someone please correct me.)

Again IDK the rules of procedure in AZ. From what I've heard there are more than enough crossover GOP votes to get this overturned. I don't know much about the party leadership in the legislature and where they stand ideologically. But several important members of their caucus + Kari Lake + former Gov. Ducey + Trump want it gone. Typically, party leaders in statehouses don't follow the orders of their partty higher-ups

[mjba257]

Well look what we have here…

https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/10/arizona-republicans-against-state-abortion-ban

That's already one Republican in each chamber publicly opposed to the total ban.  This is clearly getting modified before the election.

The GOP house leader is very anti-abortion and is not expected to bring it up for a vote (as of now)

Any way for the house leader to be overriden? If Trump thinks this will hurt his electoral prospects in the state, I can imagine him putting pressure, either publicly or privately, on this person.

[mjba257]

How long before Ben Toma is in Trump's crosshairs? I've said many times Trump isn't gonna cede a critical battleground state, and if he sees these as an electoral obstacle, he will fight tooth and nail to get rid of it. And god be damned to anyone that gets in his way.

[mjba257]

How long before Ben Toma is in Trump's crosshairs? I've said many times Trump isn't gonna cede a critical battleground state, and if he sees these as an electoral obstacle, he will fight tooth and nail to get rid of it. And god be damned to anyone that gets in his way.

I don't think you are grasping how anti-abortion people think about this issue. Ben Toma literally thinks the Holocaust just ended and it's up to him not to restart it. He won't care if Trump insults him for it.

If Arizonans want legal abortion, they will have to vote in Democratic governors, legislators, and judges forever. There's no more Roe safety net. Any time Republicans take power in most states, abortion is going to become illegal, because to them it's literally a life and death issue and they don't care about the long term electoral consequences.

You are describing an evangelicon and not every Republican is one of them. Many Republicans support compromise laws like 15-weeks and don't think of this as "the Holocaust".

[mjba257]

How long before Ben Toma is in Trump's crosshairs? I've said many times Trump isn't gonna cede a critical battleground state, and if he sees these as an electoral obstacle, he will fight tooth and nail to get rid of it. And god be damned to anyone that gets in his way.

I don't think you are grasping how anti-abortion people think about this issue. Ben Toma literally thinks the Holocaust just ended and it's up to him not to restart it. He won't care if Trump insults him for it.

If Arizonans want legal abortion, they will have to vote in Democratic governors, legislators, and judges forever. There's no more Roe safety net. Any time Republicans take power in most states, abortion is going to become illegal, because to them it's literally a life and death issue and they don't care about the long term electoral consequences.

You are describing an evangelicon and not every Republican is one of them. Many Republicans support compromise laws like 15-weeks and don't think of this as "the Holocaust".

Without Evangelicals the GOP is dead. They have to keep them in the fold or they have no electoral future.

If the GOP loses evangelicals, then that would finally give them the go ahead to drop the wedge issues that no one cares about. There are countless number of center to center-right voters who agree with most GOP policies but get turned away by the evangelicals. May cause short term pain but long term gain. Only question is where do the evangelicals ultimately go?

[mjba257]

How long before Ben Toma is in Trump's crosshairs? I've said many times Trump isn't gonna cede a critical battleground state, and if he sees these as an electoral obstacle, he will fight tooth and nail to get rid of it. And god be damned to anyone that gets in his way.

I don't think you are grasping how anti-abortion people think about this issue. Ben Toma literally thinks the Holocaust just ended and it's up to him not to restart it. He won't care if Trump insults him for it.

If Arizonans want legal abortion, they will have to vote in Democratic governors, legislators, and judges forever. There's no more Roe safety net. Any time Republicans take power in most states, abortion is going to become illegal, because to them it's literally a life and death issue and they don't care about the long term electoral consequences.

You are describing an evangelicon and not every Republican is one of them. Many Republicans support compromise laws like 15-weeks and don't think of this as "the Holocaust".

Without Evangelicals the GOP is dead. They have to keep them in the fold or they have no electoral future.

If the GOP loses evangelicals, then that would finally give them the go ahead to drop the wedge issues that no one cares about. There are countless number of center to center-right voters who agree with most GOP policies but get turned away by the evangelicals. May cause short term pain but long term gain. Only question is where do the evangelicals ultimately go?

You seem to misunderstand the relationship. Evangelicals aren’t republicans, republicans are evangelicals. In much of the south, Midwest and plains the republican party is majority evangelical. They quite literally would cease to exist in any meaningful way if they loose those states.

Evangelicals weren't a political force until the mid-70s when they were an important part of the Carter Coalition. It was during the 80s that the evangelicals started to migrate to the GOP. The evangelical-dominated plains region had been voting Republican long before then. There was a farm recession in the 1940s under FDR than caused the Plains to flip to the GOP.

Party coalitions do change and evangelicals leaving the GOP would be a massive shift in American politics. But there are plenty of demographics of people that could fill in that gap. The Northeast, for example, was once a GOP stronghold. It was the evangelical swing of the GOP that cost them the region. But even to this day, there is a fiscally conservative bent in these states. Why do you think people like Chris Sununu, Phil Scott, Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, etc are popular in their respective states? None of them are running on abortion bans or Christian nationalism. They focus on broadly popular kitchen table issues that appeal to everyone.

So that would be the clear path forward for a secularized GOP. And I think it be much better for healing our national divisions if the parties focused solely on the economic and not the cultural issues.