My 2012 Senate predictions: GOP +6

[FloridaRepublican]

This is what I see the map looking like on election day:

±0? I'd love to agree with you, but I'm really not sure we're going to end up winning Nevada after all, and I'm kind of worried about Wisconsin too.

I tend to be an optimist when it comes to far-off congressional races.

My logic works like this:
Missouri - This one is very, very difficult to call and is a coinflip. I do think that the latest PPP poll is too favorable for Republicans (33-37-30 D-R-I registration) and underestimates McCaskill strengths. Steelman is a worthy opponent and will have a strong narrative but I suspect that McCaskill still has the right "brand" to outperform Obama significantly among traditional working class Democrats. As always with Missouri, the race will be down to the wire. (I'd probably change MO to Republican if I made my map today)

Montana - Rehberg is an absolute idiot and has a history of making inane gaffes and verbal mistakes. These will come to bite him hard in the arse and the voters, for the most part, are unaware of them because he hasn't faced a tough challenge since 2000 (they obviously know/remember about the wealth gaffe but he's has a plethora of stupid statements). Tester is still well liked in Montana and has an image that will allow voters to split their tickets comfortably.

Virginia - The opposition is George Allen. Need I say more? I fully expect his campaign to go down in flames once attack ads start reminding voters that he is the "macaca" guy. We'll see though.

Wisconsin - I'd be scared if I expected Tommy Thompson to be the nominee but I think it will be Neumann and he will be weak. Tammy Baldwin will probably end up being branded as an evil communist lesbian from Madison but Neumann's favorables should get hammered as well. WI's Democratic edge should deliver this for Baldwin (hopefully).

Nevada - The turnout machine that got Harry Reid re-elected will be out in full force next year and if Heller's voting record is any indication, there will be little in the way of ticket splitting between Berkeley and Heller. On the whole, I'd expect that to be detrimental for Heller. Yet again, this race is a complete coinflip

I don't feel like I need to explain MA, MI, OH, HI etc. Anyways, I just view all of these races as being more likely to go our way that against us outside of Missouri but they're still marginal at the maximum level.

"Optimist" is an understatement.

[FloridaRepublican]

My map really isn't that optimistic, it matches polling numbers with about a 1 to 2 percent deviation from them in favor of my D homies.

What you described would be a best-case scenario for Democrats.