43rd British Columbia general election

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Two new polls out from Research Co and Pollara continuing to show the NDP with a large lead and with the B.C Conservatives with an eight point lead over B.C United (nee B.C Liberals.)

There is apparently some kind of guessing game over whether the B.C NDP will call a snap election even as David Eby continues to reiterate that the NDP are committed to the fixed election date and have important legislation to get passed before that.

The logistics also back this up. Not only is David Eby's wife going to give birth sometime in the summer, but the party hasn't chosen a campaign manager, and most importantly, they haven't nominated a single candidate (except for maybe one or two incumbents, not sure.)

While it is true that the B.C NDP called a snap election in 2020 and appointed a good number of candidates (there were 7 contested nominations), historically the B.C NDP prides itself (as does the NDP across Canada) on holding local nominations with local and not appointed or recruited 'star candidates.'

While the NDP membership and supporters gave the B.C NDP a pass in 2020 due to Covid and likely due to the likelihood of a first ever landslide B.C NDP reelection, I think Eby and his team know he'd be pushing it trying to do that for a second straight time.

Interestingly, several recruited candidates won contested nominations in 2020 for the NDP, at the very least Grace Lore, Murray Rankin and Brenda Bailey.

The split with B.C United and the B.C Conservatives could mean the NDP winning in additional non traditional NDP ridings like maybe even Kelowna, so that should mean a battle for nominations and many new members. I also think the NDP would appreciate that.

However, the real reason I'm making this post is to mention that Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau is switching from running in the Cowichan Valley (she mentioned that her riding was split up in the redistribution) to running in Victoria against NDP cabinet minister Grace Lore, the former riding of Carole James.

What is it the kids say these days? "Tell me you want to lose without telling me you want to lose."

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

What will be interesting is which party comes in second or heck maybe even Greens form official opposition.  I am pretty sure BC United and BC Conservatives will merge before 2028 but whomever comes in second has upper hand and party will look more like that.

If BC United, maybe good in long term as Lower Mainland probably more receptive to them and while your pro-business type isn't exactly popular now, economic policy tends to go in cycles so at least will be able to win when economic conservatism becomes more popular even though unlikely will dominate way pro free enterprise coalition whatever it was called did in past.  Still will always be susceptible to a more right wing takeover and actually think keeping liberal name helped party before as MAGA type crazies see word liberal as a four letter word so they stayed out of power, but rest on centre-right cared more about policies than name so united right minus the crazies.  

BC Conservatives, at moment being populist and more out there seem better positioned to do well as lots of parties across Canada and globe like them doing well.  But with how urban, diverse, and educated BC is, its probably one of the worst provinces for right wing populism.  Will dominate Interior once merged but unlikely to do well in Lower Mainland.  In fact BC might follow path of California which was once a state GOP won most of the time but now is no longer competitive at any level.

That being said there isn't enough time left to merge or even cut a deal to not run candidates against each other.  And even if they did latter I highly doubt would get the combined.  Many BC Conservatives see BC United as another left wing party like BC NDP (they are not) and would just stay home if only choice was BC United.  By same token some more moderate types find BC Conservatives too extreme and would either stay home or plug nose and vote NDP.  A lot of the wealthy ridings BC Liberals used to dominate in Lower Mainland like Vancouver-Quilchena and West Vancouver-Capilano are eerily similar to your Romney-Biden counties in US.  It seems in US & UK your wealthy educated types are seeing big swings to left and I suspect it has little to do with becoming more economically left wing and more their disdain for right wing populism is stronger than dislike of left wing economic policies.  Even in Alberta, you saw this with some fairly well off ridings in Calgary almost going NDP and in Winnipeg NDP did win some and few didn't come closer than ever have before.

So if had a non-compete agreement, would maybe stop an NDP landslide, but NDP would still win a comfortable majority.  And dividing up ridings based on non-compete would be very messy and anger it would create probably would lead to many on other side just staying home and not voting at all.

There won't be a non compete agreement as the B.C Conservatives have already nominated 35 candidates (not including John Rustad) and the B.C United have already nominated 31 (about 1/2 incumbents.)

A non compete is also not in the interests of Rustad as he clearly hopes to shut B.C United out of the legislature even if it means winning only a handful of seats for his party mostly or entirely in the North. Causing Kevin Falcon to lose in Vancouver-Quilchena and defeating Shirley Bond in Prince George won't be easy, but if B.C United is reduced to a two seat rump (although that is enough for official party status) of two MLAs first elected in 2001, that would be close to wiping B.C United out.

It's interesting what Rustad's motivations might be. This is a guy who was first elected in 2005 who voted for both the carbon tax and SOGI and seemed to be a well respected conservative leaning B.C Liberal MLA and cabinet minister who gave no indication of being a right wing populist.

Neither, I should add, did Maxime Bernier, who was a libertarian but was satisfied as a mainstream Conservative cabinet minister or even Donald Trump who was a finger in the wind private citizen who advocated mostly mainstream views (although he did pay for advertising calling for the Central Park Five to be locked up.)

I think there are two possibilities with Rustad:
1.He's an opportunist who saw the election of Falcon to the leadership with Falcon's views of warmed over Reaganomics combined with 'woke' social views as an unpalatable combination for most British Columbians and recognized an opening, especially with the rise of the Federal Conservatives in British Columbia. WAC Bennett saw a similar opening (although this seems to be more limited in becoming the opposition right now rather than government) when he jumped to Social Credit in 1952.

2.He has a personal dislike of Kevin Falcon and simply wants to destroy him.

Of course, both can be true.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Furstenau's move to Victoria -Beacon Hill does not seem to make sense? maybe the Greens are sensing something in the Capital but that just doesn't seem like a shift is happening. Yes the new Cowichan Valley is more NDP friendly but it makes more sense for the Green leader to move to Juan de fuca-Malahat. No John Horgan and it now pulls in more Green polls around Malahat.

I think posters here are right, the Lower mainland will not vote BCC if they stick to social conservativism, and will instead favour a more moderate centre-right United BUT... there may be enough rightwing voters who shift and for the NDP to win all but about 3 seats (I still think Van-Quilchena will stay BCU, Delta South, West Van-Capilano). AND I'm giving the Greens West Van-Sea to Sky. I think there are more right-leaning voters in Abbostford to split the vote and for the NDP to gain those seats.
With the right split; I can only see Kootenay-Rookies, both Prince George, both Peace River, Nechako Lakes, 3 Kelowna seats (Kelowna Centre going NDP), Salmon Arm-Shuswap and maybe Kamloops-North Thompson (Kamloops Centre going NDP).

That's 13 seats for United and CONS, Greens 2; I think that is best case with the spilt we see going on.

Delta South is made up of two communities, Ladner and Tsawwassen (the 'T' is silent) with roughly equal populations. I forget which is which, but one of them is kind of a throwback to the suburbs of the 1950s in the United States (or some of the U.S exurbs of today): semi rural with a large number of churches. It's something of a small enclave 'Bible belt.'

I don't see the B.C Conservatives winning Delta South, but I certainly think they could split the vote to allow the NDP to win with just over 30% in a three way race, as the NDP received in 2020 (and with the Greens getting about 10%.)

Given the religious right prevalence in Delta South, this isn't a riding where populist Conservatives should take too many votes from the NDP. When we look at the rise of the B.C Conservatives in general though, it shouldn't be overlooked that there are quite a lot of populists who vote for the NDP who also can find a B.C Conservative Party appealing.

You're right that B.C United should also hold onto West Vancouver-Capilano.

I agree with you on Furstenau that it would have made more sense for her to run in Juan De Fuca-Malahat, this is why I don't think it's a conspiracy theory (of mine) to believe that while she wants to lead the B.C Green Party in the next election, she doesn't want to get reelected.

Edit to add: I'd be surprised if Bruce Banman lost.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

So far we have 15 MLAs who are not running for re-election:
- 5 NDP
Katrina Chen; Burnaby-Lougheed
George Heyman; Vancouver-Fairview
Selina Robinson; Coquitlam-Maillardville (no surprise there with the recent controversy)
Doug Routley; Nanaimo-North Cowichan
Nicholas Simons; Powell River-Sunshine Coast

Routley and Simons are 2005 crew so it's almost 20 years elected for them

- 10 BCU
Dan Ashton; Penticton
Doug Clovechok; Columbia River-Revelstoke
Mike de Jong; Abbotsford West (1994! going out at 30 years not bad)
Karin Kirkpatrick; West Vancouver-Capilano
Greg Kyllo; Shuswap
Norm Letnick; Kelowna-Lake Country
Mike Morris; Prince George-Mackenzie
Ellis Ross; Skeena
Ben Stewart; Kelowna West
Jordan Sturdy; West Vancouver-Sea to Sky


Nomination news:
NDP
> Vancouver-Little Mountain (new seat): looks like we have current City Councillor Christine Boyle running against former City Councillor Andrea Reimer for the NDP nomination here.

> Powell River-Sunshine Coast; 5! people are running for the nomination
-Amanda Amaral, current School District Trustees chair
-Randene Neill, former Global BC journalist
-Jäger Rosenberg, Secondary School student and air cadet;
-Jacquie Shields, president of the Sunshine Coast Teachers Association;
-Darnelda Siegers, previous mayor of Sechelt and previous Sunshine Coast Regional District chair.

>West Vanouver-Sea-to-Sky: Whistler Councillor Jen Ford has announced.

I wasn't aware of this, but according to Keith Baldrey on this morning's Baldrey's beat on CKNW, the B.C Conservatives and B.C United have been appointing many candidates whereas, as we see here, it looks like the B.C NDP is returning to its tradition of local candidates running for the nomination voted on by local constituency members.

Baldrey was on with host Rob Fai, who has a background in communications but not in 'journalism' as he was the long time radio announcer for the local Vancouver Canadians minor league baseball team. I think Fai is a breath of fresh air compared to normal host Mike Smyth who is constantly looking for the most sensationalist and cynical explanations.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

I get the argument that replacing one flawed system with another isn't really an improvement (it actually is in this case), but I don't think it's currently legal for Vancouver to adopt any other electoral system. One thing I wish the BC government would do is allow for municipalities to experiment with electoral reform.

I don't know what you mean by not 'currently legal.' The only thing is that there are two provincial acts on municipal governments, the one for the rest of the province and the one for the city of Vancouver called the Vancouver Charter.

Presently the city of Vancouver has called on the provincial government to amend the Vancouver Charter to get rid of its elected park board and replace it with a board appointed by the city.

The provincial government had set some conditions for the city of Vancouver to meet for the province to amend the Vancouver Charter, apparently mainly that the city get buy in from the nearby indigenous communities, which the city has since received.

OT: The opposition to this is a clear case of status quo bias given that the opponents have argued this would create a 'democratic deficit.' Logically given that Vancouver is the only city in British Columbia (never mind the rest of the world) to have an elected park board, every other B.C city must presently have a 'democratic deficit.'

Early behavioral economics experiments showed that people react differently to losing something than to not getting something they were promised but never had (I think that's what it was and I forget the name given to this phenomena) so, there is no question status quo bias is real.

Taken on the merits., I think it's hard to argue with Mayor Ken Sim that the elected parks board is nothing more than another layer of bureaucracy that slows implementation of city policy down.

In addition to parks obviously the parks board also has shared jurisdiction with the council on such things as community centers.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

I get the argument that replacing one flawed system with another isn't really an improvement (it actually is in this case), but I don't think it's currently legal for Vancouver to adopt any other electoral system. One thing I wish the BC government would do is allow for municipalities to experiment with electoral reform.

I don't know what you mean by not 'currently legal.' The only thing is that there are two provincial acts on municipal governments, the one for the rest of the province and the one for the city of Vancouver called the Vancouver Charter.

Not talking at all about the park boards, I'm referring to if the city wanted to adopt proportional representation or STV to elect its councillors, it's not allowed to because of provincial legislation. Its only choices are status quo or wards.

I brought up the parks board because it's an example of how the province would have to amend the Vancouver Charter. I wasn't aware those were the only two options, but it's not like the Vancouver Charter is set in stone and it's very unlikely the province would impede if the city wanted the change as we see with the parks board. The province, as with the parks board may have some broader concerns it might insist the city meet (I can't imagine what that would be here.) For pure speculation I suppose the province might have a problem with STV in terms of the transparency of the vote count.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

NDP 2012 byelection winner and Chilliwack-Hope MLA from 2012-2013 Gwen O'Mahony is the B.C Conservative nominee for Nanaimo-Lantzville.

Nanaimo is something of an NDP stronghold, but it's also an area that has supported populist right wing types in the past.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Online Leger survey that 'confirms' the B.C Conservative lead over B.C United but also counters the Mainstreet IVR poll.

March 22-24, 2024

Overall
NDP 43%
B.C Conservative 26%
B.C United 18%
Green 11%

Metro Vancouver (whatever that includes)
NDP 42%
B.C Conservative 28%
B.C United 19%
Green 9%

Vancouver Island
NDP 46%
B.C Conservative 17%
B.C United 20%
Green 14%

Rest of Province (this is the term Leger used, and not 'Interior')
NDP: 44%
B.C Conservative 27%
B.C United 16%
Green 12%

Essentially I don't know where they included Surrey and the Fraser Valley, or maybe just the Fraser Valley. There are a handful of other areas I don't know either, but they aren't as big (the North Shore mainly: North and West Vancouver and Powell River-Sunshine Coast.)

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1776654069144207512

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Rumours are the government could call an early election.

Very unlikely. Eby has said on many occasions he wouldn't and they NDP only just started nominating candidates this weekend.

This rumor has been thrown out since Eby won the leadership.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

A lot of the remaining BC United voters are federal Liberal types - and I suspect that many would vote NDP before they would vote for a party of rightwing conspiracy theorists, climate change deniers and anti-vaccine fanatics like the BC Cons. Christy Clark's ex-husband Mark Marissen tweeted this week that he would vote NDP if the only alternative was the BC Cons.

Also, no one knows the BC Con leader John Rustad - and by all accounts he is very weak and underwhelming - so once you get into a leadership focused campaign - the BC United party could regain some ground since they have way more money, more incumbents and a leader in Falcon, who while unappealing - is much more experienced performer than Rustad

Obviously I have a bias, but both Rustad and Banman are unappealing. When people desire change sometimes that doesn't matter of course.

Rustad was a provincial Liberal MLA from 2005 and a cabinet minister under Christy Clark from 2013 to 2017. As a Liberal MLA and cabinet minister he signed off on all the things he now claims to oppose such as the carbon tax and SOGI.

Although not high profile, he is clearly an opportunist who likely recognized that B.C United Leader Kevin Falcon's Reagonomics economics views combined with support for 'woke' social policy was an odd combination that created space for an alternative. Of course, I don't know what went on behind the scenes to create this split between Rustad and Falcon.

It's interesting how these far right types who see conspiracy theories everywhere keep falling for obviously inauthentic people or outright con artists like John Rustad, Maxim Bernier and Donald Trump.

Bruce Banman meanwhile is a defeated one term mayor of Abbotsford whose highest profile move was to authorize the spreading of chicken manure at night around a homeless camp in order to clear it out. This inhumane method likely cost Banman reelection although it was a narrow defeat.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Well well, maybe this will be a closer race than thought https://press.liaisonstrategies.ca/bc-ndp-lead-bc-conservatives-by/ .  It is one poll and I think discrepancy is Angus-Reid mentions BC United was formerly BC Liberals whereas this one does not.  Still BC Conservatives surging is real.  How big a threat they present to NDP, tough to say.  Are rather right wing for BC so my thinking is once come under greater scrutiny they fall back especially in Lower Mainland.  Still it would not shock me one bit if BC United + BC Conservatives get more votes than NDP although BC NDP + BC Greens probably still get more votes than right does.  If like Angus-Reid probably merge.  If like Liason, BC United likely implodes and BC Conservatives become new right wing coalition in 2028 much like Social Credit was from 1952-1986 and BC Liberals from 2001 to 2020.

I don't think it would shock *anyone* if BC United and BC Cons combined outpoll the NDP, because that's more of a statistical-noise thing, and a lot of people would agree that how the BCNDP did last time around was "high end" for them rather than a permanent new normal.  It's only relevant to those who obsessively view politics through a Duverger prism where the Bill Bennett/Dave Barrett races marked an ideal state of affairs.

And as mentioned, not all BC United types would be on board w/a BC Con big tent, much as not all federal PCs were on board with the "united right" in '04 (and not all NDPers *or* Libs would be on board if the federal parties merged).

As an example of this, not in British Columbia, but in New Brunswick, former Jean Charest era Progressive Conservative M.P John Herron, is seeking the New Brunswick provincial Liberal nomination. Blaine Higgs is probably the closest example of John Rustad given that B.C, like New Brunswick, isn't resource dominated right wing like Alberta or Saskatchewan. Of course, New Brunswick does have the Irving dominance unlike British Columbia.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1783897808493220347?t=xBk_Fw0zs_3v5qA...
And so what became a possibility has become reality.  A poll finds the Conservatives tied, which I think gives the lead in modeled seats. Now for now this is a outlier, but it may be all that they need. Just Polling close enough to the NDP will mean that there is enough viability for opposition consolidation - rather than dissolution - for whenever there happens to be the next election.

Odd, the full poll has slightly different numbers including a slight Conservative lead. The first caveat of course is that Mainstreet Polls are junk as CEO Quitto Maggi has been caught previously trying to influence elections and not just poll them (both in Calgary in 2017 against Naheed Nenshi and I believe in Toronto as well in the recent mayoral by-election.) Apparently during several other municipal elections and by-elections as well.

After the Calgary election when the polling association called him out, Maggi gave a very Trumpian reply denial.

In this case, everybody should realize the graphic presented can't be correct as a sample size of 475 produces a margin of error at the 95% confidence interval of +-4.6% and not +-3.2%.

For anybody not familiar, determining the margin of error at the 95% confidence interval (19 times out of 20) is fairly simple. It's 1/square root of the sample size.

Even taking this poll totally seriously though, there was a nearly as recent ResearchCo poll that has the NDP up 18% over the Conservatives. There has been a difference in results between online surveys like ResearchCo and IVR polls.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1783974004056834267

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Lot of cope from BC United there considering theyre indisputably behind the conservatives

True, but I'm sure the goal of Quitto Maggi/Mainstreet Research with their junk polls is to get B.C United supporters to switch to the B.C Conservatives. Of course, that doesn't mean that it can't be successful.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

This seems more like US would be had Sanders instead of Biden won Democrat nomination in 2020 and what would establishment GOP who hated Trump do in that case?  Biden was centrist enough easy to support him but if Sanders was chosen I bet they would have run a third party candidate so in a roundabout way I am saying your business types who supported BC Liberals but cannot stand right wing populism are probably sticking with BC United even if that is all they have left.

FWIW, Christy Clark's ex-husband Mark Marrissen who is a dyed in the wool "blue Liberal" old Paul Martin backer has tweeted that if he has to choose between the BC NDP under Eby and the climate change denying crackpots in the BC Conservative party - he is voting NDP

Yeah, I was thinking of that when I thought of the NDP as the establishment party. They're no longer thought of as the socialist hordes, and are probably closer to Biden than Sanders rhetorically.

The business community doesn't have the impact in British Columbia it used to for, I think the three following reasons, however many in the business community still hate the NDP and support any 'free enterprise' party that can defeat the NDP.

1.Campaign finance reform, the business community can't simply donate millions to other parties to defeat the NDP.

2.The business community is more diverse/diffuse. Unlike in the 1970s when the NDP were in power, the mining community isn't as dominant in the Interior especially, and unlike in the 1990s, the forestry community isn't as dominant in the Interior and the Coast.

One reason for this is that the there are natural limits to growth for resource industries, especially renewable resources. There are also some business sectors that tend to favor the NDP over education (high tech) and environmental regulations (tourism.) Of course, the NDP risks the support from the tourism sector with the ban on Air B&B short term rentals.

So, as British Columbia's population has increased by about 2 million since 1991, the forestry sector could only decline in importance. Of course, the first renewable resource sector that faced declining importance as populations increased was the fishery.

3.The media isn't as powerful as in the 1970s and the 1990s. People outside of British Columbia have no idea how high the percentage of British Columbians who watched BCTV news up to the 2000s was. Only that T.V show in Quebec has a higher percentage audience. Similarly, CKNW radio talk show host Rafe Mair was extremely powerful and was frequently demagogic.

So, these things aren't as widely known in British Columbia as they would have been in the 1990s, but, in addition to Air B&B, many in forestry hate the NDP for the changes they've pushed through on forest tenure, and the housing construction industry is threatening to 'go on strike' over the high costs the NDP have imposed (or allowed municipalities to impose) on new construction.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

I find it amusing how they still use this dated 1970s language about saving "free enterprise" - as if the NDP under Horgan or Eby ever posed the slightest threat to free enterprise. Its not as if the BC NDP has workers of the world unite as its mission statement and wants to nationalize all heavy industry.

There are definitely companies in the resource sector that are anti NDP and many in the construction sector aren't exactly happy with the NDP either.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

There are lots of companies in the resource sector who are not crazy about some federal Liberal policies and yet the Liberals are never labelled anti-free enterprise - in fact they are very much the party of big business

Justin Trudeau has definitely been labelled an anti-free enterprise 'socialist' and they are the party of 'Eastern Establishment' big business but opposed by the Western Resource big business (I wonder who J.D Irving in New Brunswick supports.)

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

So wait, am I right in assessing that basically the entirety of the collapse of BC United is because of the name change?

LOL

https://youtu.be/G8JOqXC17CA?si=fc_3OBWW2fyD5Kon

That Youtuber is a complete jerk.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

More bad news for BC United.

https://twitter.com/RobShaw_BC/status/1796585696179913064

No honor among thieves.

Update: It seems disputed this is happening. Maybe Doerkson does have honor. I know Rob Shaw doesn't and is nothing more than a slimy stenographer for the Conservative Party.

Update II: He did cross. Nope. no honor.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

I was unfair to Rob Shaw.
https://twitter.com/RobShaw_BC/status/1796560177304678513

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Falcon should step down. I think Peter Milobar would be the obvious choice to replace him by acclamation.  

Falcon should say "I think I was a successful leader. I lasted longer than a head of lettuce."