If Manchin wins, will he break w/ Dems as often as Ben Nelson?

[Guderian]

My guess is Manchin will vote like a generic Republican over the next two years. He will need to distance himself from Obama as much as possible in that period. They will be together on the ticket in 2012 and Manchin must avoid associating himself with someone who will lose West Virginia by 20 points. After that he can probably relax and be a typical moderate Democrat.