Official 2023 General Election Results Thread

[Birdish]

First polls close in KY in 45 minutes. I honestly can't wait. I might be insane, but I love election nights. I just wish I was able to take off tomorrow...

It really is insane that any state has a 6PM poll closing time.

That's how they keep the working class down.

I remember someone once explaining to me that the early poll closing time had something to do with Coal Miners getting to vote. Although I can't remember the entire context as to why.

[Birdish]

Is Beshear losing Nicholas County concerning since he won it in 2019?

Different counties count differently. Wouldn't be surprised if they counted election day votes first.

[Birdish]

With Elliot county, both NBC and DDHQ have the same amount of votes, but the winner switched. Somebody has the date inputed wrong.

[Birdish]

Could it also have been that Bevin was uniquely unpopular in coal country?

[Birdish]

omg CNN is really talking about their new poll right now instead of going over the results. really?

Figures. Let me guess it's all bad for Biden?

Yes, it's Trump +4.

The crosstabs are essentially what NYT and ABC/Wapo are showing - Biden 73/23 with blacks, 50/46 with Hispanics, Trump 45/41 with Independents, and you guessed it... Trump leading by 1 among young voters, 48/47.

They also showed 71% of GOP is enthused to vote, while only 61% of Dems are. Which makes me believe that the people taking these polls are not very representative of the actual electorate, they're a very deflated group clearly.

Either way, when polls are telling you one thing but the actual results tonight do not seem to be bearing these numbers out - very most so with young voters - then at one point do we stop relying on them, especially over actual results coming in?

It does kind of feel like they were hoping for a Dem wipeout tonight to reinforce the seriousness of their poll. Now it's just giving off 2022 polling vibes.

[Birdish]

Dems did the same thing in 2017 VA over one poll zagging and showing a GOP surge. Was probably Emerson too.

It was the Donna Brazille Republican surge.

Democrats were super emotionally fragile at that moment too. People were genuinely questioning if democrats could ever win without Obama.

[Birdish]

I do think if Democrats end up have a good night tonight, it quiets some of the "Replace Biden" push that popped up after the NYTs/Siena polls. They don't really have much to do with each other, but you can't argue Biden is having a negative effect down ballot.

[Birdish]

https://twitter.com/ChristianHeiens/status/1722054579439726822

Theres no early vote in yet.

[Birdish]

OMG. CNN is really continuing to go with the poll. Right after Kacie Hunt says there may be credence, given these results, that people are once again counting Joe Biden out, Dana Bash says "back with more of our poll next, the bad signs for Biden and the disgruntled electorate"

they are REALLY trying to push the D/Biden disarray messaging at the same time as these election results are coming in. this is just too much

The Dems aren’t in disarray at all. Dems in general are doing pretty great.
It’s just Biden that’s the problem.
The better that Dems do tonight, the more this reinforces that Biden’s poor poll numbers are on him personally rather than the party as a whole.

It's odd though. Trump dragged Republicans down. Obama dragged Democrats down. Is Biden such a nonfactor that he doesn't drag anyone down?

[Birdish]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1722062934023483640

I feel like I speak for many people when I say Frank LaRose can suck it.

[Birdish]

Has Virginia stopped counting? It feels like we've gotten almost news out of there in an hour.

[Birdish]

One obvious interpretation of both the Kentucky and Mississippi governor races are that incumbents are doing better than the polls showed.

This was true in the 2022 midterms as well.

You can read whatever you like into that regarding Biden.

Sure, but you have to admit a democrat winning Kentucky by +5 is significantly more impressive than a Republican winning Mississippi by the same margin.

[Birdish]

Are the results good or bad for Dems?

Good.

[Birdish]

Maybe polls just generally suck?

I'm constantly reminded of that tweet where dude says that pollsters need a new strategy to reach voters under 35 or 40 or whatever who would rather pull the pin on a hand grenade than answer a call from a # they don't recognize.

They keep trying with online surveys but depending on how they reach out, that doesn't solve the problem either. How man millennials and younger actually answer emails from strangers? Even worse, most email services now sort messages into separate folders, most of which don't get checked.

[Birdish]

Republicans overperformed slightly in the Northeast tonight. They flipped the mayorship in Manchester, New Hampshire and flipped a State Senate seat in a swingy part of central Massachusetts. Gabe Amo ran even to Biden in areas that are trending D, but did worse in white working class areas in RI-01 and even lost Woonsocket, a former D bastion, in part due to bad turnout but in part due to trends. They also did very well in the Suffolk County, NY Executive office.

Low turnout in Suffolk County from what I've read.

[Birdish]

Who are these mighty democrats of South Carolina? I'd like to meet them one day.