Something generally smells really off with these polls; this poll requires too many people who voted not only for Whitmer but straight ticket Dem in 2022 to suddenly flip to Trump. I can def buy there will be a notable handful of Whitmer - Trump voters, but not this many, and I also don't buy voters who didn't vote in 2022 break for Trump by over a 2-1 margin.
I can buy it. It used to be that Republicans were the higher propensity voters (mainly college educated whites) who showed up in the midterms, but now that has reversed. So it seems midterms and off-year elections now favor Democrats, while presidential elections (especially with Trump on the ballot) favor Republicans.
It should be noted that in the NE-01 special election in June 28, 2022, Republicans did a good bit worse (with lower turnout in the special) than they did on November 8, 2022 (with higher turnout in the general).
It also should be noted that in that special election involving Pat Ryan and Marc Molinaro, Republicans did better in the same district boundaries in the general (better with the higher turnout on Nov 8 2022 than in the lower turnout in Aug 23 2022)
Same thing was true in 2018 and 2020. For instance, take a look at the PA-18 special results in 2018 vs the higher turnout general results. Take a look at AZ-08 special 2018 vs AZ-08 general 2018.
There are some exceptions such as GA-06 special summer 2017 vs general Nov 2018. But usually higher turnout has benefited R's.
Oh and if I recall correctly, Mike Garcia in CA-25 (previous district lines) actually did a bit worse on Nov 2020 than he did in the special earlier in that year, but many were saying he was a goner in the general because of the higher turnout and he ended up outperforming expectations!
Poll
