What makes the decision of so many not run even more curious is the electoral college math.
Consider this. A strong Republican would win all of the McCain 2008 states and almost certainly bring back the traditional R states of IN, VA, and NC. That person would also likely win FL and OH, both center/right states historically.
Based on the EC totals, the Republican would need only flip just ONE other Obama state. Just ONE. If the economy remains poor, think PA, MI, or WI. If the nominee has appeal with Hispanics, think CO, NV, and NM.
While we hear lots of stories about how unbeatable Obama is, the EC math says otherwise. That assumes a credible R nominee obviously. Still, this race should be much closer than it probably will be.
Just based on the math, I still think a late entry is possible. All of the No's don't make sense when looking at the map.
I don't agree with your determination of what the outcome might be. Looking at this realistically, from 1992 through the 2004 election Obama is in a great place right now. He appeals to the states that have tended to be more Republican but due to demographic changes in the past 20 years are definitely trending Democratic. Indiana will most likely go Republican in 2012 but Virginia and North Carolina are leaning Democratic --Virginia more so than NC.
Lets look at this since 1992...
Dark Red = Voted for the Democratic (Presidential) candidate EVERY election since, and including,1992
Dark Blue = Same as above, but Republican.
Light Red = Voted for the Democratic candidate a majority of elections since, and including, 1992
Light Blue = Same as above, but Republican.
On this map, there are 281 EV for the Democrat, and 257 for the Republican. Probability says that Obama will win. But we can look a little further in terms of what Obama's appeal is.
Because he won Indiana in 2008 by a plurality I will keep Indiana on the table as leaning Republican, but he's unlikely to win it --I think anyway.
Colorado, Florida, Virginia and North Carolina were decisive victories and Obama was definitely competitive. Even though he lost Missouri, I would also throw this in the same category. Even if he loses these, he still wins the Presidency.
Obama could also be competitive in Montana --he was in 2008.
But on my map, he loses all these states and STILL wins.
He would have to lose Iowa and Nevada, or Ohio, or some combination of 12 Electoral Votes to lose the Presidency...and because he appeals to another 79 Electoral Votes that usually go Republican, it ain't gonna happen.
