Youngkin doesn't need the Rustbelt.
If he wins his Home State of Virginia along with NC, GA, AZ and NV in 2028 he is President.
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Youngkin would win Texas, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina. He would probably do well enough in Southern, conservative suburbs and continue the GOP gains in WWC areas in the upper midwest. Whitmer would definitely counter those gains though and do decently in MI and WI.
Youngkin got zero i repeat 0 appeal to WWC,Texas would be tossup but Whitmer definitely takes Ohio and Iowa.