Jeb Bush is way overrated as a candidate. It's been almost a decade since Jeb was governor of Florida (and Florida has been one of most rapidly changing state demographically), he would not excite the Republican base to turn out, but he is not really a "moderate" either....and his name is Bush, a name now synonymous with failure.
Usually, the "favorite son" factor is being overrated. However, it can still make a difference, especially with close elections. I'm convinced had Kerry picked Bob Graham in 2004 (who was wildly popular despite not seeking reelection) and played this card, he would've carried Florida and become President.
It's true in 2016 Jeb will be out of office for a decade and he missed other opportunities in meanwhile. However, despite Florida changing, he remains reasonably popular there (unlike in other states, he's more associated with his own career than being GWB's brother). Since Florida tends to be close, with Bush on the ticket, I'd give it to Republicans.
