POLAND locals 2014 (user search)
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Author Topic: POLAND locals 2014  (Read 1079 times)
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 57,380


« on: November 17, 2014, 06:35:12 PM »

Damn, I was about to create this thread.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,380


« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2014, 06:51:03 PM »

ComputerProblems caused some CountingDelay during Monday. ExitPolls saw PiS at 31.5 and PO at 27.3, its female PM has already conceded the first defeat for 9 years. (Yet, PO should be able to form far more coalitions than PiS.) SecondRound in 2 weeks.

It ought to be noted that these numbers are only for total popular vote for Voivodeship Sejmiks (roughly equivalents of state legislatures) and, obviously, results varies from Voivodeship to Voivodeship.

Also, these numbers does not include numerous races for mayors and councils on all levels (county, commune, municipal, borough).

The fact, however, is that for the first time in 9 years PiS did came first in something, which is understadalbly vieved as PO's defeat, albeit narrow.

Here are projected numbers:

PiS: 31.5%
PO: 27.3%
PSL: 17%
SLD: 8,8%
KNP: 4.2%

PKW expects full results to be known by early afternoon tomorrow.

I'll write more later.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,380


« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2014, 06:02:05 AM »

Oh well, it appears we can't expect results today.

Cayó el sistema! Cayó el sistema!
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,380


« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2014, 06:09:35 AM »

For those surprised at PSL's showing (whooping 17% while they frequently struggle to reach the 5% threshold at national level): that's really nothing unusual to exceed their parliamentary showing (although 17% is above expectations).

PSL is a party of local establishment with a strong network of support (and interests) on county and commune level. Many people may no longer vote for PSL parliamentary and presidential candidates (hell, in the last presidential election, Pawlak got pathetic 1,75%, finishing fifth), but they still love their PSL mayors, wójts, sołtyses and councilmembers.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,380


« Reply #4 on: November 18, 2014, 12:07:02 PM »
« Edited: November 18, 2014, 12:14:47 PM by Pope Callixtus IV »

For those surprised at PSL's showing (whooping 17% while they frequently struggle to reach the 5% threshold at national level): that's really nothing unusual to exceed their parliamentary showing (although 17% is above expectations).

PSL is a party of local establishment with a strong network of support (and interests) on county and commune level. Many people may no longer vote for PSL parliamentary and presidential candidates (hell, in the last presidential election, Pawlak got pathetic 1,75%, finishing fifth), but they still love their PSL mayors, wójts, sołtyses and councilmembers.

17% is - as far as i remember - by far their highest share of votes ever, isn't it? Caused by those, who are unpleased by PO and PiS?

Well, no, mainly because PSL has no significant support beside country areas. While there is a discontent due to PO and PiS domination, PSL is not the force to benefit from this, given, among other reasons, they are in coalition with PO.

Lower turnout may be a better explanation. PSL electorate is very dedicated, especially with local elections.

To answer your first question, yes, it's their best result since 1989 (although only 0.5% better than 2010), although not the best result ever, given that PSL is over 100 years old.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,380


« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2014, 12:14:15 PM »

For trivia, there are Sejmiks total popular vote in previous local elections:

2002:

SLD-UP: 24,65%
PO-PiS: 16,02%
Samoobrona: 15,98%
LPR: 14,36%
PSL: 10,81%
AWS remains: 3,44%
KNP-OP and ROB: 2,34%
UW: 2,29%
UPR: 2,27%
PPP: 1,50%
KPEiR: 1,14%
ZChN-ROP-RKN: 1,09%

2006:

PO: 27,18%
PiS: 25,08%
LiD: 14,25%
PSL: 13,24%
Samoobrona: 5,64%
LPR: 4,74%

2010:

PO: 30,89%
PiS: 23,05%
PSL: 16,30%
SLD: 15,20%
ODŚ: 1,64%
KNP: 1,22%
RAŚ: 0,97%
German Minority: 0,40%
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,380


« Reply #6 on: November 18, 2014, 02:02:54 PM »

Meanwhile, SLD noted a very disappointing result on Sunday, while, at the same time, having a steady rise in the national polls (as mentioned in my Poland 2015 thread, they had best polling in nine years). Quite a reverse of PSL situation.

SLD local machine, once very strong, is no longer the same.
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