RFK Jr.'s five best states. (user search)
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  RFK Jr.'s five best states. (search mode)
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Author Topic: RFK Jr.'s five best states.  (Read 463 times)
Open Source Intelligence
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Posts: 971
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« on: May 01, 2024, 07:14:03 PM »


I'll add Minnesota to those.

Looking at 1996, Perot's best states were Maine, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, and North Dakota. In that vein, I think Mountain West states ex-Colorado he'd probably do well. It's Libertarians' best region in the country, they're smaller populations ex-Colorado so you don't need a lot of votes numerically to get a higher percentage, they've been friendlier to third parties, and the overall winner of those states is not in doubt.
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Open Source Intelligence
Jr. Member
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Posts: 971
United States
« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2024, 02:19:32 PM »

I've gone through the Zogby polls and made an index based on RFK's favorables, his relative performance when replacing Trump/Biden, and the amount of voters undecided between Trump and Biden to construct an index of where RFK might perform best. The top ten states that come from this are:

1) Utah
2) Texas
3) Arkansas
4) Kentucky
5) Wyoming
6) Ohio
7) New Mexico
Cool Maine
9) Mississippi
10) Nebraska

Alaska is actually in the bottom ten states, as is Idaho. I think what people may be missing is that RFK does not appeal to the same people who we usually think of as NeverTrumpers. While he does absorb some of these voters in places like Utah, he's first and foremost not a candidate for the educated suburbs or typical libertarians.

He's a candidate looked fondly on by the working class of all races, excepting those in fossil fuel-heavy states like WV and PA due to his environmentalism.

Here's the full map of my index:


Unless you're talking Dixiecrats, we have more than a hundred years' worth of evidence that the South supports non-duopoly candidates the least of all areas in the country, so 3, 4, and 9 I don't see at all.
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