🇭🇷 Croatian General Election, April 17th 2024: HDZ-DP coalition to be formed (user search)

Quote from: DavidB. on December 28, 2023, 04:54:46 PM

Croatia will hold a general election in 2024. Officially, the election can be held no later than in September, but it is assumed it will be in the middle of March, before Easter. Once the Parliament is dissolved, President Zoran Milanović (SDP) gets to decide on the date within a certain range. The governing center-right HDZ would prefer a short campaign; Milanović will try to avoid that.

The Parliament has 151 seats; 140 of those are elected in ten multi-member constituencies with each 14 seats. 3 are elected by the diaspora and 8 are elected by the so-called 'national minorities'.

History
Croatia became independent in 1991 and has mostly been governed by HDZ, which can be considered the country's 'natural party of government'. The only exceptions were 2000-2003 and 2011-2015, in which the country was governed by a coalition led by the SDP, the social democratic successor of the Croatian faction of the Yugoslav communists. HDZ, on the other hand, started off as a very strongly nationalist and rather authoritarian party under President Franjo Tuđman (1990-1999); after his passing, however, HDZ moderated into a more typical pro-European right-wing party, albeit with a base that is partly much more conservative.

After the 2011-15 Milanović government, during which Croatia entered the European Union, an election followed in which HDZ came first but could not form a stable coalition under the very outspokenly right-wing Tomislav Karamarko. He was then replaced by the more centrist Andrej Plenković, who succeeded to form a coalition with (then) centrist Most. In July 2020, Plenković's HDZ managed to surprise - partly riding the COVID-19 rally-around-the-flag wave - by winning in a landslide by Croatian standards in what was supposed to be a neck-and-neck race. Although with only 46%, turnout was extremely low. This time, Plenković's HDZ was already very close to a majority in Parliament: he only needed two centrist/liberal splinters and the 8 seats for 'national minorities' for a stable majority.

Under the last government, Croatia has entered both the Schengen area and the eurozone, meaning it is now embedded in all types of European and transatlantic cooperation. Plenković has been careful not to align himself with the Visegrad 4 countries and instead stay close to Germany, EU Commission President Von der Leyen, and the 'EPP mainstream'. Plenković is Von der Leyen's darling: he is the head of government with the most bilateral visits with her since 2019 - and he is widely rumored to be interested in a top EU or NATO job, which may mean his stint as Prime Minister is almost finished.

Party system
From left to right, the political spectrum consists of Možemo ('We Can'), a Western-style green-left coalition that was riding high in the polls but has come down a little after winning and governing in the capital of Zagreb, which apparently hasn't been to everyone's liking; of the aforemenetioned SDP, fairly typical European social democrats; the center-right natural party of government HDZ still led by Plenković; right-wing conservative Most ('Bridge'), which has shifted from a centrist position to a more decidedly right-wing course over the years and which seems to be running in an alliance with the Croatian Sovereignists this time; and nationalist right-wing Homeland Movement (DP, Domovinski Pokret), which was catapulted to great heights due to patriotic singer Miroslav Škoro's shock performance in the 2019 presidential election, in which he almost reached the runoff - but has faced lots of infighting, splitoffs and Škoro's departure ever since.

In addition, some splinters will take part in the election, such as liberal Fokus and Centar, the regionalist Istrian Democratic Assembly, the Social Democrats (an SDP splitoff), and representatives of the Serbian minority.

Current polls look as follows...

... but Croatian polls absolutely blow, to the point where I almost assume they're made up - and they have often tended to underestimate HDZ support.

Anything can still happen, but the safest bet right now is a HDZ victory at the same or perhaps a slightly lower level than in 2020, with a similar outcome in terms of government formation. But things could get more complicated if HDZ don't reach a majority with the centrist splinters and the minority representatives, which is also very possible.

Electoral geography
In terms of geography, HDZ rack up the score in Dalmatia and Slavonia. These areas are more rural, religious and conservative in the first place, but there is also a very clear correlation between HDZ support and the extent to which areas were affected by the Homeland War for independence - in the first place the areas which were then located within the secessionist Serbian 'Krajina' statelet.

SDP do very well in Istria, on the Northern Adriatic Islands, and in northern Međimurje and Zagorje - the former two had no love for Croatian nationalism in the first place due to its cultural and historical ties to Italy, while Yugonostalgia is strong in the latter two. Možemo depend almost entirely on a good performance in the capital of Zagreb. The Homeland Movement does best in Slavonia, where Škoro is from, while Most do best in Dalmatia.

Within Dalmatia, it's mostly Northern Dalmatia and, further south, the Hinterland - the zagora - that push up the score for HDZ. The Southern Dalmatian coastline is more of a bellwether with higher SDP scores - the difference between the South Dalmatian coastline (and islands) and the strongly right-wing Hinterland is partly related to a historical orientation towards Italy vs historical orientation towards Herzegovina thing, as well as to a Partisan in WWII vs Ustaše in WWII thing. Like the South Dalmatian coastline, Central Croatia is also a bellwether. The runoff in the 2020 presidential election shows quite a good picture of a 50/50 left/right election.

Former election results - by election, constituency, municipality and precinct - can be found here.

Thanks for the very detailed post.

It seems that HDZ is also pretty weak in Zagreb. Any other reason than "big city so more left-wing"??

Are very any voter demographics from past elections?? Like voting behaviour by age, gender or occupation??

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