Stabenow: I'm running in 2018

[dmmidmi]

Expect this race to start off as "Lean Dem," then quickly fall to "Likely Dem," and stay there until election day.

Though, I definitely am interested to see who the MI-GOP will throw their weight behind. Camp, Rogers, and Amash wouldn't jump into an open-seat race, so it seems highly unlikely that any of them jump in the ring against Stabenow. None of the current US House members seem likely to do so.

Maybe Randy Richardville? Jase Bolger would get smoked in the general.

[dmmidmi]

Republicans have much better targets than Stabenow in 2018 (as in 2012), so unless there's a true star candidate here I don't expect this race to be competitive. Republicans will be focused on keeping the Governorship.

Snyder maybe just because?

He could legitimately challenge Stabenow, but he strikes me as an "executive" type who isn't particularly interested in being part of a legislature. He might've agreed to run if the seat was safe, to stay in the game (a la Mike Johanns), but I don't think he'll challenge a reasonably popular sitting Senator.

You have to go back a long way in Michigan history to identify an outgoing Governor that had any real success after leaving office. The last ex-Governor that ran for a Senate seat was Soapy Williams--who was a popular Governor, by most standards--and he lost to Robert P. Griffin pretty handily.

[dmmidmi]

Republicans have much better targets than Stabenow in 2018 (as in 2012), so unless there's a true star candidate here I don't expect this race to be competitive. Republicans will be focused on keeping the Governorship.

Snyder maybe just because?

He could legitimately challenge Stabenow, but he strikes me as an "executive" type who isn't particularly interested in being part of a legislature. He might've agreed to run if the seat was safe, to stay in the game (a la Mike Johanns), but I don't think he'll challenge a reasonably popular sitting Senator.

You have to go back a long way in Michigan history to identify an outgoing Governor that had any real success after leaving office. The last ex-Governor that ran for a Senate seat was Soapy Williams--who was a popular Governor, by most standards--and he lost to Robert P. Griffin pretty handily.

George Romney served in the Cabinet and John Swainson was appointed to the Michigan Supreme Court, though to be fair those are different types of success. (Swainson resigned from the SCoMI to run for an open Senate seat in 1976, but he was convicted of perjury and actually never returned to public office after the resignation).

Right, but it has been a long time since an outgoing Michigan Governor was subsequently elected to office.

Michigan is dead for the GOP.

That's a rather odd claim, since the GOP controls all statewide executive positions, both chambers of the state legislature safely, and a 9-5 majority in the House election. Although it does typically lose Senate and presidential elections, those are the only ones. The Republican Party is, on balance, probably the stronger of the two in Michigan.

The state GOP did an excellent job of carving up the state into a few majority-minority districts, and a bunch of districts that are just Republican enough that it's difficult for Democrats to win there. For instance, the City of Lansing is split into two Congressional Districts (MI-08 includes East Lansing and some of the more liberal parts of Mid-Michigan, but that's completely offset by including Livingston county). Extremely liberal Muskegon county is packed into MI-02, along with some of the most conservative parts of the state. But, look at Democratic performance in the districts represented by Dingell, Conyers, and Kildee.

However, the state GOP also benefits from a few strong incumbents. The day Fred Upton retires is the day you can expect MI-06 to instantly become competitive. Dan Benishek has won a couple of close races (though his election bids have been boosted by a more conservative MI-01 than in decades past) in a seemingly competitive district.

The state Democrats have some issues to sort out, for sure. But to say that the GOP is "the stronger" party in Michigan--where a Republican has failed to win Michigan's electoral votes since Guns n' Roses were popular, and only one Republican has been sent to the Senate since the 1970s--is false.

No one will seriously contend this if they got blown out in 2014 in an open race. Michigan is gone on the federal level.

This is the closest to reality. That, and I'm hard-pressed to think of a Republican that's savvy enough to evenly match up with Stabenow. She booted an incumbent in a 50-50 year--do you really think she'll be shown the door in anything other than a massive landslide year for the GOP?

[dmmidmi]

Calling it now. She loses.

You heard it here first.

So you think there will be 3 Republican waves in a row?

It really depends on whether a Democrat wins in 2016. Even if they won't, by sheer numbers, Democrats have nowhere to go but down in 2018.

That's true, but didn't you say you thought Republicans were favored to win the presidency in 2016? I could be mistaking you for someone else.

I do think they're favored, but it's ridiculous to pretend this seat isn't vulnerable. The main reason Stabenow won by such a large margin in 2012, besides it being a great Democratic year, was the total implosion of her opponent. Assuming she faces someone like Snyder or one of the congressmen, she's going to be in a serious fight.

Just like every other outgoing Michigan Governor, Snyder's approvals will be in the dumps the day he leaves office.

With respect to Stabenow's large 2012 victory--the problem here is that the MI-GOP's bench is packed full of candidates that are good enough to win competitive US House races and a few lower-level races, but definitely prove that they aren't ready for primetime when they enter a more high-profile race (like Governor or Senate). Part of this has to do with where these Republicans call home (Justin Amash and Terri Lynn Land are both from Grand Rapids, Mike Rogers is from Howell, Dave Camp is from Midland, Pete Hoekstra is from Holland), part of this is that the candidates simply aren't skilled (Mike Bouchard, Dick DeVos, Mike Cox, Rocky Raczkowski, and the aforementioned Land and Hoekstra).

The problem isn't that Republicans lose these races because the candidates implode--it's because their bench, with respect to these types of races, kinda sucks.