Official Michigan Megathread

[dmmidmi]

http://www.freep.com/article/20140603/NEWS06/306030043/Detroit-bankruptcy-pensions-artwork

If the DIA can be saved from a potential fire sale, Snyder's approvals will go up.

[dmmidmi]

Given her appearance at Mackinac, this has been pretty accurate so far: http://www.deadlinedetroit.com/articles/9519/dems_use_seinfeld_parody_video_to_mock_terri_lynn_land#.U5bwv3JdXMU

[dmmidmi]

In other news, the GR Chamber and RTL are endorsing Brian Ellis over Justin Amash: http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2014/06/brian_ellis_backed_by_grand_ra.html#incart_most-comments

[dmmidmi]

Even though they endorsed Rick Snyder earlier this year, the Detroit Regional Chamber is throwing its support behind Gary Peters: http://www.mlive.com/business/detroit/index.ssf/2014/06/detroit_regional_chamber_endor_1.html#incart_river_default

[dmmidmi]

Even though they endorsed Rick Snyder earlier this year, the Detroit Regional Chamber is throwing its support behind Gary Peters: http://www.mlive.com/business/detroit/index.ssf/2014/06/detroit_regional_chamber_endor_1.html#incart_river_default

Why in the world would a pro-business organization support Peters?  I can understand why they may like his "bipartisan track record," but what makes them think he's a better choice than Land?

Because he has a pretty successful track record of bringing home the bacon for his constituents. There's no promise that Terri Lynn Land would do the same thing.

For big businesses in Metro Detroit, he's probably the safer bet.

[dmmidmi]

Meet the people who are hoping to replace Gary Peters: http://www.freep.com/article/20140626/NEWS06/306260042/14th-congressional-district-Michigan

Every time I look at that district's boundaries, my jaw drops.

[dmmidmi]

Even Republicans agree that Terri Lynn Land's ads are terrible: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140626/POLITICS02/306260043/Political-Insider-GOP-candidate-lands-pollster-s-worst-ad-list

So much for the "Michiganders love her and elected her in two landslides, so she must be a great politician" line of reasoning.

[dmmidmi]

Looks a little like the fight for Dave Camp's seat is heating up: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140714/POLITICS01/307140013/0/POLITICS/GOP-battle-Camp-s-Congress-seat-gets-feisty

I'm betting Moolenaar still wins on August 5th, though.

[dmmidmi]

Most recent poll shows Snyder and Schauer tied at 40 apiece and Peters leading Land by 9.

Who did it?  There's no way Peters is that far ahead (even if he leads), and most polls have had Snyder with a modest lead as well.

Magellan Strategies did it, who typically provides polling for GOP candidates and conservative organizations: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/Magellan_MI_0614.pdf

Either way, even if Peters' lead has been modest, it has been consistent.

[dmmidmi]

Another crappy Terri Lynn Land commercial: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140716/POLITICS02/307160046/0/politics/New-Land-Senate-ad-emphasizes-Michigan-heritage

[dmmidmi]

And if you want more proof that the Washington Post sucks: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/she-the-people/wp/2014/07/15/lands-clever-anti-war-on-women-ad-didnt-do-much-to-close-the-gender-gap-in-michigan/

A few things...

1. That ad wasn't "funny" or "clever." It was stupid, because she thinks the fact that she is a woman proves that the policy positions that she takes cannot possibly adversely affect women, generally.
2. She is out-raising Gary Peters because she has dumped a bunch of her own money into the race.
3. Gender is merely one reason why she can't out-poll Gary Peters. Being an awful candidate, lack of intellectual prowess, and a refusal to take real positions on most important issues are other reasons.

[dmmidmi]

Additionally...guess who got the nod for worst political ad of the year?

http://www.nationaljournal.com/against-the-grain/the-2014-against-the-grain-awards-20140715

You guessed it.

[dmmidmi]

Terri Lynn Land can't seem to follow campaign donor laws that she enforced as Secretary of State: http://www.wzzm13.com/story/news/politics/elections/2014/07/17/freep-terri-lynn-land/12775105/

Whatever. If her husband wasn't donating to her campaign, her fundraising numbers would be embarrassing.

By the way, I think I've seen Terri's latest commercial before...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ytpi43C-MI

Right! The bastards who raise my energy rates each year came up with that commercial years ago.

[dmmidmi]

Brian Ellis touts the endorsement of former Congressman and known racist Peter Hoekstra in his new ad. I can't be assed to find a link more

Trying to secure that conservative Dutch vote (which is most of West Michigan).

Following up on my previous comment, the Michigan Democratic Party has filed two complaints against Landslide Terri: http://www.mlive.com/lansing-news/index.ssf/2014/07/michigan_democratic_party_file.html

The first complaint has to do with her donation of $2.9 million to her own campaign, even though she never disclosed that she had that much money. The second has to do with her association with Land & Co.

Things just keep getting better for her campaign.

[dmmidmi]

Looks like Amash will win next week, margin's the question.

That's what happens when you challenge someone with >60% approvals.

There are just as many Ellis signs in East GR, but far more Amash signs out throughout the rest of the district.

[dmmidmi]

What do you think the margin will be?

If I had to guess--I'd say he wins the primary in the 60-40 or 65-35 range. There is simply no motivation for West Michigan Republicans to switch gears.

Though, I'd be surprised if the margin was any wider. There just doesn't seem to be any visible support for Ellis in the rural areas of MI-03. And when you're running to the right of Amash, this is a significant source of support.

I got a letter from the Ellis campaign in the mail. So you can probably guess what their strategy is now. With that being said, there's no reason for Democrats to show up to vote against Amash, either.

[dmmidmi]

By the way, thank God this is happening: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140730/POLITICS01/307300082/0/politics01/Bernstein-launching-run-Michigan-Supreme-Court

For those of you not from Michigan: the Sam Bernstein Law Firm specializes in personal injury, and they saturate the airwaves with their advertisements (particularly during Detroit Tigers telecasts).

Please, please, please let him win.

[dmmidmi]

Don't forget, guys. For the first time in forever, a proposal is on today's ballot. To learn more about Proposal 1, visit http://www.mlive.com/lansing-news/index.ssf/2014/07/michigan_primary_2014_proposal.html

And I get to go cast my ballot between Justin Amash and Brian Ellis. The choices feel a little bit like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UthMHjoNyjA

[dmmidmi]

Pub establishment sees their assessment of Land vindicated. That said, I highly doubt Rogers or Camp would've won. So what difference does it make?

Rogers may have actually made this a race--but nevertheless, a race that Peters would have won anyway. Camp's odds may have been marginally better than Land's, but not by much.

The reality is that Peters is a pretty good fit for the role--he's from one of the wealthiest parts of Metro Detroit, knocked off a Republican incumbent in 2006, and doesn't seem groomed for anything beyond the Senate seat.

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I tried explaining why none of this mattered months ago, particularly the part in bold, but it fell on deaf ears. Running for SOS is totally different from running for an actual office--it's a little difficult to put into words, but Michigan voters seem to be willing to ignore party-affiliation, due to the non-partisan and lightweight nature of the office.

Everybody is now seeing that Land isn't a particularly skilled campaigner or politician. Everybody who lives in Michigan--and follows state-level politics--knew this a long time ago.

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Yeah, but she's closer to being a bad candidate than a great candidate. "She's a candidate" is probably the best way of putting it.

[dmmidmi]

But, if Terri Lynn Land is looking for some encouraging news...http://www.sentinel-standard.com/article/20140805/NEWS/140809535

[dmmidmi]

I wish Hansen Clarke would've actually put up a fight, but it looks like Brenda Lawrence will be taking over Peters' seat next year: http://www.freep.com/article/20140805/NEWS06/308050235/14th-Congress-Clarke-Lawrence-Hobbs

[dmmidmi]

Kochs just triaged the Senate race, all airtime cancelled. About time too.

This seat isn't in the GOP's path to 51, anyway. Michigan's Republican leadership indicated as much in that National Journal article.

[dmmidmi]

In other news, Justin Amash is a crybaby: http://www.mlive.com/opinion/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2014/08/amashs_dissent_why_my_opponent.html#incart_most-comments

Your opponent aired smear ads during primary season? Boo f'ing hoo. You're a politician. People accused Bill Clinton of murder and running drugs in Arkansas. If you have national ambitions, get used to it, because it's going to get worse.

[dmmidmi]

The NRSC isn't throwing in the towel just yet: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/214985-senate-republicans-buy-15m-in-michigan-ads

[dmmidmi]

The Terri Lynn Land campaign finance drama takes another turn: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140819/POLITICS01/308190031

She made less than $45k in 2012? Yeah, right.