2012 Presidential Election TL

[California8429]

With the 2010 election night results in...it's time for the presidential campaign to get underway.

Senate

Dem-49
Rep-48
Ind-3

Governor

House
Rep-218
Dem-217

Up next: Speaker elections

[California8429]

After persuading fellow and new House members, multiple threw their hats into the race to be Speaker.
December 12 Mike Pence announced he would be a candidate for Speaker
December 15 Minority Leader John Boehner announced he would be a candidate for Speaker.
December 17 Paul Ryan announced he would be a candidate for Speaker.
December 21 The unofficial Republican whip count shows the following…
Pence 49
Boehner  115
Ryan 33
Undecided 22
December 30 After days of phone calls and closed door meetings, Eric Cantor announces he will be a candidate for Speaker.  The move was seen as a way to unify the party in their first act as a majority, but only a one vote majority. Numerous congressman said that Boehner would be Majority Leader and could not win the Speakership if he ran.
Immediately following Cantor’s announcement, John Boehner announced he would not seek the Speakership and would support Cantor.
December 31 Paul Ryan stated he would support Cantor for Speaker. Late in the day, Mike Pence said he would also step aside for Cantor.
January 6 Eric Cantor is elected Speaker over Nancy Pelosi 218-217. John Boehner becomes the Majority Leader with Paul Ryan as the Majority Whip. Mike Pence it assigned to head “Ways and Means”.
The only major change in the Senate is Dick Durbin becomes the new Majority Leader.
Cantor announced that the House’s first focus will be the repeal of “Obamacare”. Republicans were given a majority for this very reason, the repeal and override of Obamacare as a mandate of the American people. We will do everything in our power to strangle this massive government takeover and bring in real sensible health care solutions that the people want.

[California8429]

comments? suggestions? before we head into the Presidential race

[California8429]

Jan 7 Gary Johnson goes to visit Ron Paul. Staffers say that the two discussed the 2012 election. Sources say that the two decided upon which one would run in 2012 and that it was likely going to be Johnson with Paul's blessing.


Jan 14 Rick Santorum is the first to announce a run for President on Meet the Press.

We are facing a socialist presidency right now. The voters have a choice for a clear conservative candidate, that's why I'm running. It's time we restore this nation to be one nation under God. We need to remember our morals. We need to help those in need and protect those that cannot protect themselves, and that includes the unborn. We need somehow to be a strong conservative voice and that's why I can win the Presidency.


Jan 20 Average National Polling
Romney 21%
Gingrich 20%
Huckabee 13%
Palin 13%
Daniels 10%
Pawlenty 7%
Paul 7%
Barbour 4%
Santorum 3%
Johnson 2%



Jan 22 Mike Huckabee announces he will make a final decision on if he will run for Presidency around March or April. Huckabee said he loves his popular Fox show. I'm only going to run if there's a real mandate, a real movement of the people for this. I mean, I really love my show, it's going to take some hard thinking on this.


Jan 25 Tim Palwenty announces in his home town of South St. Paul that he will run for President.  Our nation is at a cross roads. We have the choice between government control, and personal liberty. We have the choice of responsibility, and irresponsibility. We have the choice of staying the greatest nation in the world, or no longer being the greatest nation. Friends, this election is too important, to not care. It's too important to stay at home. We need fiscal responsibility restored to the federal government, we need to pay back our debt, we need to reform entitlement programs and we need to undo all the reckless polices of Barack Obama. I'm running for President to fulfill that moral duty to the American people!

Jan 26 Tim Pawlenty’s entrance into the race is cut short when Senate President Pro Tem, Robert Bryd is admitted into a hospital after his heart stopped.

Jan 27 Robert Bryd is in a stable conditions, but with the help of machines. The doctors say he will only be able to live with the pump.

Jan 31 Robert Bryd dies. The funeral is to be held next week. The media is in a fury over who will become the new Senate President Pro Tem. With the Senate at 48-48 lead (with two independents that caucus with the democrats and one with republicans), Republicans could still win if they pick a moderate who can gain the support of Independents Crist and Lieberman. Daniel Inouye of Hawaii, Patrick Leahy of Vermont and Orrin Hatch of Utah declared their running. Dick Lugar is also a potential candidate on the Republican side.

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Feb 3 Daniel Inouye will run on the Democratic side. Orrin Hatch announces he will run on the Republican side. The race is expected to go 49-49 with Joe Lieberman deciding who will be the new Senate President Pro Tem.

Feb 4 Patrick Leahy announces he will also run for Senate Pro Tem.

Feb 6 Bryd’s funeral is today.

Feb 7 The Senate votes 46 Inouye, 49 Hatch and 4 Leahy with Lieberman voting for fellow independent Leahy . Orrin Hatch is the new Senate President Pro Tem.

Hatch approval rating...
Approve 39%
Disapprove 31%

Feb 9 George Pataki announces he will run for President.
We need real leadership for the country. We need proven experience to get the job done. We need this economy turned around, we need real health care reform, we need to win the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and we need to defeat foreign and domestic terrorists. And I’m the man that will stand up for the fight, I’m not going to bow down to anyone. You have my word, you. Come. First.

Feb 11 Average National Polling
Romney 20%
Gingrich 19%
Palin 11%
Daniels 9%
Huckabee 8%
Pataki 8%
Pawlenty 8%
Paul 7%
Barbour 4%
Santorum 4%
Johnson 2%

Feb 13 The DOW rises to 1200. Unemployment is at 7.8%. President Obama announces that the economy is recovering and that in four years unemployment will be back down to 4%.

[California8429]

Red-Romney
Green-Gingrich
Blue-Huckabee
Yellow-Daniels
Clear-Favorite Son/Daughter

[California8429]

No one would vote for Byrd as Pro Tempore after he dies...

Thanks for the catch. I meant Leahy

[California8429]

So the GOP picks up 40 seats and control of the House, and Boehner ends up getting not 1, but 3 challengers as leader of the caucus?  That seems highly implausible.  When was the last time a party took control of the House or Senate and proceeded to immediately dump their leader....setting aside cases where there's some kind of scandal, like Lott's Strom Thurmond comments?

Boehner was not credited with the entire House win and because of the 218-217 split, Republicans were afraid they would lose the Speakership if he was their candidate

[California8429]

Feb 14 Gary Johnson announces in New Hampshire that he will run for President.
This nation is moving towards a socialist, big government takeover of our economy, of our lives and of our liberties. We need to end this now. We need to reverse this now. The Republican party is about liberty and personal choice, that means personal choice with a woman’s right to choose to in the bedroom to the fact that the Constitution says that the “Patriot Act” is unconstitutional. Liberty starts here, it starts today.

Feb 16 Governor Gary Johnson appears with Ron Paul in Nevada where Congressman Ron Paul endorses Johnson.
I know that as President, Gary Johnson will lead, protect and serve our nation well. I would trust no one else in this race to be my President..

Feb 18 The RNC releases the following schedule for 2012
Late Jan-Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada
Early Feb-Arizona, North Dakota, Colorado, Florida, Maine, Delaware
Late Feb-California, Alaska, Montana, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, Connecticut, Massachusetts,
Early Mar-Washington, Utah, Kansas, Missouri, Wisconsin, New Jersey
Late Mar-Hawaii, Wyoming, Minnesota, Tennessee, West Virginia, New York
Early Apr-Idaho, New Mexico, Louisiana, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, South Dakota
Late Apr-Texas, Ohio, Vermont, Rhode Island, Virginia, Maryland, D.C.
Early May- Oregon, Nebraska, Kentucky
Late May-Indiana, North Carolina

Feb 20 Governor Haley Barbour announces at the Mississippi State Capitol that he will run for President.
See the way I see it, is that the President is so charismatic, that the nation is falling to his tricks, and with a weak field for the GOP, nobody I saw, could stop him. That’s why I ran. I’ve had enough experience all across the board to not only stop his radical left agenda, but to bring in true fiscal conservative, sound, polices, that can turn around our nation.

Feb 22 Mike Huckabee announces he’ll be releasing a new book June 1st titled “Real America: Overcoming All Odds” about his person story and the stories of others, that overcame great obstacles with God on their side and hard work.

Feb 23 Average National Polling
Romney 20%
Gingrich 18%
Palin 10%
Daniels 9%
Huckabee 9%
Pataki 9%
Pawlenty 8%
Johnson 7%

Barbour 6%
Santorum 4%

Feb 24 Governor Pataki spent the week in New Hampshire touting his experience and support for personal choice and liberty. Governor Pawlenty was in Iowa talking about family values and his personal story. Governor Barbour headed to South Carolina to establish a campaign HQ then went up to Iowa for town halls. Senator Santorum spent the week in South Carolina talking about how he is the true conservative in the race, morally, socially, and fiscally. Governor Johnson toured Nevada with Ron Paul, talking about his more libertarian plan for the nation he felt was what the nation needs and wants.

Feb 27 Mitt Romney has made some noise in New Hampshire, as a large high school gym has been rented.

Maps to follow

[California8429]

Red-Romney
Blue-Huckabee
Light Blue-Barbour
Green-Gingrich
Dark Green-Johnson
Yellow-Daniels
Gray-Palin
Orange-Pawlenty
Brown-Pataki

[California8429]

Apr 1 Mitt Romney announces in New Hampshire he will run for President. Immediately he gains a jump in the polls.

We need a strong economy, a free nation, and a nation that does not give up. Now is the time to stand up, for a free and strong America. For a better America than we found it for our kids and our grandkids. Now is the time to stand up against big government and push for real solutions. Now is the time to lead.

Apr 2 Mike Huckabee announces on Huckabee that he will not run for President.

I love my nation, and I love my show. I believe we’re going to win 2012, and I think Republicans will make even greater gains in the Congress and Governor’s seats around the country. I will do everything I can for a conservative nominee. And maybe, there will even be a guy I like enough to endorse him or her, during the primaries. My door is open. I welcome your thoughts and suggestions.
Many saw Huckabee’s announcement as continual bad blood with Romney, cutting off his announcement with one of his own.

Apr 4 FoxNews announces it will hold its first debate April 30. All the candidates have been invited, and candidates that announce by April 28 will also be invited.

April 7 Weekly Focus:
Mitt Romney-New Hampshire
George Pataki- Nevada
Tim Pawlenty-Iowa
Haley Barbour-Iowa
Gary Johnson-New Hampshire
Rick Santorum- South Carolina

Apr 9 Average National Polling
Romney 26%
Gingrich 20%
Palin 11%
Daniels 9%
Pataki 9%
Pawlenty 9%
Johnson 6%
Barbour 6%
Santorum 4%

Apr 11 Gary Johnson announced in New Hampshire is plan to legalize marijuana and other drugs as well as decriminalization of all drugs. We banned the drinking of alcohol, and guess what? Nothing good happened. So let’s learn from our mistakes now. Stupidity is doing the same thing twice. No, I don’t think drinking and driving or smoking and driving is okay. If you hurt someone abusing drugs or alcohol, then you should be put in prison and fined. But if you aren’t hurting anyone, I don’t have a problem controlling drugs and making sure people use them safely because these people are going to do them anyways.

Apr 13 Tim Pawlenty and Haley Barbour team up in Iowa and give joint forums and town halls for the week. Both men had good things to say about one another and there was no attacks on each other during their week tour of the state.

Apr 14 Newt Gingrich said he will come to a conclusion about a Presidential run this month.

[California8429]

Red-Romney
Blue-Barbour
Green-Gingrich
Dark Green-Johnson
Yellow-Daniels
Gray-Palin
Orange-Pawlenty
Brown-Pataki

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Polling With Only Announced Candidates
Romney 34%
Pataki 20%
Pawlenty 16%
Johnson 12%
Barbour 11%
Santorum 7%

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Apr 15 Weekly Focus:
Mitt Romney-Nevada
George Pataki- New England
Tim Pawlenty-New Hampshire
Haley Barbour-South Carolina
Gary Johnson-Iowa
Rick Santorum- Iowa

Apr 17 Sarah Palin says she will decide before the summer if she will run for President, and she has been given a lot of support on the matter.

Apr 19 Iowa Polling
Gingrich 23%
Romney 23%
Palin 13%
Pawlenty 9%
Daniels 8%
Barbour 8%
Pataki 6%
Santorum 5%
Johnson 5%

Apr 20 New Hampshire Polling
Romney 27%
Pawlenty 19%
Pataki 13%
Gingrich 10%
Johnson 9%
Daniels 7%
Palin 7%
Barbour 5%
Santorum 3%

Apr 21 Tim Pawlenty attacks RomneyCare in New Hampshire, saying it is too much like ObamaCare. Most candidates agree on the news, that RomneyCare is not something they approve of, or think is best for the nation. What we need is real common sense reform. Open up borders. Cut waste and fraud. Make Medicare and Medicaid more transparent. Keep choices between a doctor and a patient. Computerize health records. Simple things like this can save us a fortune.

Apr 24 Newt Gingrich heads out to Iowa.

Apr 25 Newt Gingrich announces he will run for President.

I couldn’t sit by and watch our nation go down a socialist road. We have government takeover of our economy, of the automotive industry, of banks, of health care. We have czars, and wasteful government programs. A trillion dollars for a stimulus package that did absolutely nothing. This isn’t dumb, this is absolute stupidity. We need to change this now. We need replacement, not just reform. I am running for President, to restore our control back on a fiscal conservative track, back on the right track, and move our economy, our education, our health care and our military back to the top in the world where no one can match us or even come close. That’s what we need to do right now. We need real conservative, fundamental change and repeal and remove practically everything the Congress and President has done in the past few years.

Apr 27 on Fox News… The debate is expected to be a hot contest between Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney. Libertarians are excited to see how well Gary Johnson performs and if he can carry their movement like Ron Paul. Tim Pawlenty has set the bar set the bar low on his performance due to his low charismatic skills and leaks from the campaign on debate prep. There is no speculation on how well Pataki will do, but he is expected to do decent. Rick Santorum is also a wild card, many are excited to see if he is as bad as Palin. Haley Barbour is expected to do well as well, only his southern drawl isn’t going to help him look like he can win the general.

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Apr 30 “George Pataki, Newt Gingrich declared winners of the debate”
Mitt Romney performed rather lower than expected, not being able to come off as much as a Republican as centrist or Obamalike, especially on health care. Pataki focused on the fiscal issues and only touted his conservative social records opposed to moderate or liberal stances. Newt Gingrich’s wealth of knowledge came in handily as he positioned himself as the credible “right” candidate on the floor. Gary Johnson pleased libertarians but no one else. Rick Santorum looked unqualified and childish. Haley Barbour received good ratings and while he did not receive a large push in the polls, his approvals did jump.  Tim Pawlenty performed average, yet a boring appearance.

Polling after the debate…
Gingrich 23%
Romney 23%
Pataki 11%
Palin 9%
Daniels 9%
Barbour 8%
Pawlenty 8%
Johnson 6%
Santorum 3%

[California8429]

Red-Romney
Blue-Barbour
Green-Gingrich
Dark Green-Johnson
Yellow-Daniels
Gray-Palin
Orange-Pawlenty
Brown-Pataki

[California8429]

comments? suggestions? announcement of support? before we head into May

[California8429]

Good so far.  A few things to keep in mind though, as you go forward.

First, in the year before the election, one key metric of how the candidates are doing is fundraising.  How much $ does each candidate raise each quarter?  That's almost as important as polling.

In a presidential primary race, the national polls tend to change very very slowly until about a month or two before the primaries start.  Then you might start to see a lot of fast movement just before the voting starts (see, e.g., Giuliani's consistent lead in the national polls through much of 2007, and then very sudden collapse at the end of the year).  They definitely don't change as a result of things like debates, since virtually no one watches primary debates.  OTOH, it's possible for minor candidates to gain enough attention for a small niche following as a result of debates, as happened with Ron Paul in the last election.

Polling in Iowa and New Hampshire is more fluid, because people there are actually paying attention to the race much earlier than the rest of the country is.  But IA and NH also tend to see faster movement in the polls in the final month or so leading up to the vote.

It's unusual for no candidate to have more than 30% nationally plus in both Iowa and New Hampshire.....and you've got no one with more than 27% of the vote in any of them at the moment.  Realistically, in most cases, the media is not going to have time to cover more than about four or five candidates.  The remaining candidates will be widely considered to be joke candidates with no chance of winning, and will languish at 2-3% in the polls at best.

There definitely isn't polling of every state every single month, though if you really want to make national maps each month, knock yourself out.

Thanks forthe comments. I just want this to be more interesting then evertyhing changing at the very end, yes true in reality. It would just shorten the time line.

I will have fundraising numbers out next update.

[California8429]

May 1 Sarah Palin says she will decide on a run before the end of the month.


May 3 Fundraising numbers are released (in order of polling)
Romney $16.7 million
Gingrich $15.8 million
Pataki $9.6 million
Barbour $10.4 million
Pawlenty $6.1 million
Johnson $5.5 million
Santorum $1.3 million

May 6 Mitch Daniels says he will consider a presidential run.

May 9 New Hampshire Polling
Romney 31%
Pataki 26%
Gingrich 17%
Palwenty 10%
Johnson 7%
Barbour 6%
Santorum 3%

May 10 Iowa Polling
Gingrich 32%
Romney 27%
Pawlenty 12%
Barbour 11%
Pataki 9%
Johnson 5%
Santorum 4%

May 13 Unemployment is at 8% and the DOW continues to drop. Obama says to invest in the economy and spend. This isn’t anything we should worry about, we have seen these drops before, but the long term shows economic recovery..


May 15 Semi-Month Focus
Mitt Romney-New Hampshire/Iowa
Newt Gingrich- South Carolina/Florida
George Pataki- New Hampshire
Tim Pawlenty-Iowa/Midwest
Haley Barbour-Iowa/South
Gary Johnson-New England
Rick Santorum- South Carolina

[California8429]

May 17 Sources say Sarah Palin met with FoxNews last week to discuss a possible TV show.

May 19 Olympia Snowe announces in Maine that she will run for President. This is seen as a surprise, though many moderates brought up her name as a possible Republican moderate they would support and see as electable. Snowe was joined by fellow Senator Susan Collins at her announcement.

We need strong leadership right now. We need good government, and government used to promote the general welfare. Now conservatives may attack me as being a moderate, or a RINO, but let me tell you something. I am no such thing, I do however, look at the outcome. Yes, I voted against the Bush Tax cuts. The same reason John McCain did, because we were about to go to War and that is not fiscally responsible. I have promoted well placed and effective tax cuts and well spent money. I believe in liberty, in freedom and your personal choices. That’s why I’m running for President.

May 20 National Polling with announced candidates
Gingrich 33%
Romney 27%
Pataki 11%
Pawlenty 9%
Barbour 6%
Snowe 6%
Johnson 4%
Santorum 4%

May 24 CNN will host a republican primary debate at the end of June. Candidates must receive at least 4% in average national polling to attend.

May 27 The DOW drops to 10,000

May 28 Sarah Palin is scheduled to be in Wasilla Alaska May 31. Commentators are split on if she will run for President or not. Some believe she will get a FoxNews show.

May 30 May 15 Semi-Month Focus
Mitt Romney-South Carolina/Florida
Newt Gingrich- Iowa
George Pataki- Iowa
Tim Pawlenty-Nevada
Haley Barbour-South Carolina/New Hampshire
Olympia Snowe- New Hampshire/Iowa
Gary Johnson-Nevada
Rick Santorum- Iowa

May 31 Sarah Palin makes an announcement.

We’ve done a lot of good in this country because of you guys, and we’ve got a long road ahead. We need to fight this socialist movement. We’ve got to stop government takeover of your lives and put our nation back down the track of freedom. I’ve taken a lot of time to think of my future and how I will play a role in this. I’ve talked to numerous people from friends and families to supporters around our great nation and I’ve made my decision. I’m going to be marching with you on Washington. I’m going to be standing with you in the fight and I’m going to be loud when I yell “freedom”. And with that said, I won’t be running for President, but I will be fighting for the presidency. I will be fighting so next November, we have a conservative in the White House.

[California8429]

Red-Romney
Blue-Barbour
Green-Gingrich
Dark Green-Johnson
Yellow-Daniels
Gray-Snowe
Orange-Pawlenty
Brown-Pataki

[California8429]

seems there are a lot of guests looking at the TL

[California8429]

June 1 Mitch Daniels said he is currently discussing a presidential run with family, friends and potential supporters. I’m not going to jump to any conclusion. This is a huge thing we’re talking about here and I am not going to decide until I have an absolute decision for you and that includes deciding the effects it will have on my family and my life.


June 4 Sarah Palin announces she will have a Fox News show. Sources say that the show will be a talk show more oriented as another Oprah than actually a news show.

June 7 Presidential Obama starts troop pullout in Iraq.

We will not be sending any more combat soldiers in. From now on, we are only going to bring them home.. Violence continues to mount in regions. The Kurds have been recently pushing hard to be granted independence and join with neighboring Kurds in other countries (especially Turkey and Iran) for their own Kurdistan. President Obama said he is confident the Iraqi government as well as regional governments will be able to settle the problem peacefully and well.


June 12 Presidential candidates over the past few days were asked if they would support the creation of Kurdistan.
Gingrich-Yes
Romney-No
Pataki-No
Pawlenty-Yes
Barbour-Yes
Snowe-Yes
Johnson-Yes
Santorum-No

June 15 Semi-Month Focus
Mitt Romney-Iowa/Nevada
Newt Gingrich- New Hampshire/South Carolina
George Pataki- Nevada/Florida
Tim Pawlenty-Florida/South Carolina
Haley Barbour-Iowa
Olympia Snowe- New Hampshire/Nevada
Gary Johnson-South Carolina/Florida
Rick Santorum- New Hampshire

[California8429]

Do you guys want me to go at the current path? Or speed up things so one update is a month or two instead of a half a month?

[California8429]

June
There is no clear winner in the debate with Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, George Pataki and to a lesser extent, Olympia Snowe and Haley Barbour all performing well.


The Shias are blocking any movement that will give the Kurds independence or more power. President Obama says he is confident that the Iraqi people will solve the problem peacefully as they have shown they can do.

Mitch Daniels announced he will explore a presidential run forming an exploratory committee.

Daniels said if supporters can raise $5 million by the end of the quarter which will end in a few weeks, he will continue his exploratory committee.

National Polling
Gingrich 30%
Romney 25%
Pataki 10%
Daniels 8%
Pawlenty 7%
Snowe 7%
Barbour 6%
Johnson 4%
Santorum 3%

July
Moderates are worried that Romney, Pataki and Snowe are splitting the moderate vote with Pawlenty and Johnson also chipping off some of their block which they believe will lead them to a nominee to far right to win the presidency.

Rudy Giuliani endorses Governor Pataki

We need real, strong leadership. Somebody ready on the job day one. Somebody who has been through crisis and can manage our national security. I’ve worked with George during 9/11 and I would love to see him as our President because I know I can trust him.

Gas prices rise to $4 in some parts of the country. Gingrich uses the opportunity to promote his “Drill Here. Drill Now.” Plan.


John McCain says he will not make an endorsement in the primaries and will “leave it up to the voters to decide”.

Tim Pawlenty’s campaign seems to be gaining little national tracking, put is picking up speed in Iowa and New Hampshire.

National Polling
Gingrich 34%
Romney 24%
Pataki 10%
Daniels 8%
Snowe 6%
Barbour 6%
Pawlenty 6%
Johnson 4%
Santorum 2%