Predict the margin in each of the following states:

[BigZuck08]

- Alaska (worth 3 electoral votes in 2024) R+7
- Iowa (6) R+9
- Ohio (17) R+10
- Maine's second congressional district (1) R+4
- Texas (40) R+4
- Florida (30) R+4
- North Carolina (16) R+4
- Georgia (16) D+1
- Arizona (11) D+1
- Wisconsin (10) D+1
- Pennsylvania (19) D+1
- Nevada (6) R+1
- Michigan (15) D+3
- Nebraska's second congressional district (1) D+1
- Minnesota (10) D+7
- New Hampshire (4) D+8
- Maine (2 at-large EVs) D+7
- Virginia (13) D+7
- New Mexico (5) D+11
- Colorado (10) D+14
- New Jersey (14) D+9
- Oregon 8 D+16
- Illinois (19) D+17
- Delaware (3) D+16
- Washington state (12) D+15

[BigZuck08]

Solely because  it  could've been  seen as  the  very   last and final  act, of ... her time?

OH doesn't have that thing where its presidential elections are more beneficial for the Democrats than off-year ones. Though the opposite isn't true anymore either, just ask Tim Ryan.

I think  he was  a terrific fit  for  the state's electorate  and  its mood  at  that particular point in time, unlike Vance's weaknesses. I think  he performed about as well as  any  generic Democrat  ever could've  in  that kind of environment, giving  the national Republican establishment  some  really scary  injuries  to "go home" with, the sweat  running  along  their backs  came as  a pleasantly nasty surprise  in 2022.

In Arizona, it'll be a mixed bag. Gallego is a good Democratic candidate, and the Republicans nominee may not help Trump all that much, come 2024's time.

What're  your thoughts  on   its  state of play   if Sinema decides to run  for  re-election  once more?

Manchin is done. Tester could probably finish with a similar result to Bullock, perhaps slightly better than his. And Brown will get something similar to Ryan's, just slightly better as well. In other words

Meanwhile, Sherrod Brown's going to look to repeat  that feat  next year, running well ahead  of  his state's  partisan baseline  yet again, as well Jon Tester. Do you really think  they're both "significant underdogs" for re-election, at  this stage?

- Alaska (worth 3 electoral votes in 2024) R+7
- Iowa (6) R+9
- Ohio (17) R+10
- Maine's second congressional district (1) R+4
- Texas (40) R+4
- Florida (30) R+4
- North Carolina (16) R+4
- Georgia (16) D+1
- Arizona (11) D+1
- Wisconsin (10) D+1
- Pennsylvania (19) D+1
- Nevada (6) R+1
- Michigan (15) D+3
- Nebraska's second congressional district (1) D+1
- Minnesota (10) D+7
- New Hampshire (4) D+8
- Maine (2 at-large EVs) D+7
- Virginia (13) D+7
- New Mexico (5) D+11
- Colorado (10) D+14
- New Jersey (14) D+9
- Oregon 8 D+16
- Illinois (19) D+17
- Delaware (3) D+16
- Washington state (12) D+15

Same margin  for Trump  in NC as FL? How did NE-02 get  so close  all of a sudden? Also, why's VA closer  than  it was  in 2020? And please don't say "Youngkin 2021", I'm begging you ...

I believe MI will swing toward the left a ton, while VA won't trend leftward at all next fall.

Highly doubtful  imho, but  I suppose   they  shall  find out, once  they  get going ...

Those predictions have since been changed.

[BigZuck08]

Those predictions  have since been changed.

Very well  then. To ... what, though, exactly, if  I may  ask? Thank you very much  in advance  for  your indulgence!

As of now, I give Trump the advantage only because of the potential vote splitting that Cornel West and possibly No Labels can cause. West is getting a lot of media attention and Dems tend to be more open to third parties than GOP, thus allowing third parties to take more votes from Dems than GOP. They may take enough votes to swing states like PA, WI, MI, and GA to hand Trump the election.

Also no problem, anytime!

[BigZuck08]

Those predictions  have since been changed.

Very well  then. To ... what, though, exactly, if  I may  ask? Thank you very much  in advance  for  your indulgence!

As of now, I give Trump the advantage only because of the potential vote splitting that Cornel West and possibly No Labels can cause. West is getting a lot of media attention and Dems tend to be more open to third parties than GOP, thus allowing third parties to take more votes from Dems than GOP. They may take enough votes to swing states like PA, WI, MI, and GA to hand Trump the election.

Also no problem, anytime!

Cornel West’s campaign was already getting a lot of attention when you first posted your predictions. Why wasn’t Trump favored then?

Because I haven't heard about him at the time.