If this is a re-alignment election; why?

[cherry mandarin]

If this is a re-alignment election, why?

Because it's about past time. Re-aligning elections are events that tend to happen approximately every generation or so, and as such we're sort of overdue for one right about now.

And yes, the 2024 re-alignment that polls are suggesting is real.

There’s also been a lot of digital ink spilled on reasons why men might move away from Dems en masse.

Depending on which surveys you choose to consult, the gender gap has narrowed either slightly or significantly since 2020, but either way the chasm between the two sides appears to have closed somewhat during this time frame. This continues the trend we saw from polling during this spring's primary race, where Trump performed better among women than men while Haley did better with men than women, despite the candidates' own respective genders. Of course the GE electorate will look far different than that of the GOP primary, but this general rule can still be decently instructive for what we'll see in the fall.

[cherry mandarin]

I think younger voters becoming less D is a real thing.

Also, the screenshot you quoted is a chart of partisan affiliation and party ID, rather than 2024 presidential voting intentions. The trends are a lot clearer when respondents are presented the dual choice between Trump and Biden, rather than simply being asked for their voter registration.

Lastly, the idea of there being a "generation hippie" is vastly overstated. Contrary to popular perception, baby boomers are still a broadly conservative generation, as they always have been. It's simply the stark contrast between them and their silent-generation forerunners that really feeds into the stereotype, as does the vast gulf in cultural attitudes that became apparent in the aftermath of the second world war.

Sure, Generation X may have voted more Republican than Baby Boomers for quite some time now, but their partisan preferences and voting patterns belie and obscure their true opinions on the issues of the day. Their loyalty to the GOP has been far more a function of the national mood during their youth than a true indicator of where their hearts lie on matters of principle.

[cherry mandarin]

I’m relatively certain that it won’t be resolved by either Biden or Trump. If Haley or DeSantis won the Republican primary in 2024, I think we’d be having a much different discussion.

And you think either of them could solve the problem? They would be way in over their heads, as extremely decisive figures without any semblance of a dedicated base filled with rabid supporters.

[cherry mandarin]

No one of who is running (or did run in the primaries) is capable of uniting the nation right now.

FTFY.

[cherry mandarin]

Both could’ve won in a landslide against Biden

I highly doubt that.

and then immediately lose their mandates to circumstance and their inability to distinguish themselves from the old guard.

Just like Biden himself! The same thing could've been said for him heading into the pandemic election of 2020. In fact, come to think of it now, that application would still hold true in an eerily similar fashion.

There is absolutely no reason whatsoever to believe that young people suddenly love Republicans. A right-wing Gen Z is just a pathetic, embarrassing masturbatory fantasy for Republicans.

Of course it'd be hugely unprecedented for Trump to win this cohort outright in November, but at this point I'm pretty confident he'll make at least some gains with them.

[cherry mandarin]

That wouldn't be a realignment.

Considering Biden won the 18-29 age group by a more than 2 to 1 ratio in 2020, it certainly could be. When I talk about a "re-alignment", I'm mainly referring to a substantial number of demographic groups witnessing significantly larger shifts over the course of a single election than the historical norm would suggest. In this era of hyper-partisanship and extreme polarization, that means it doesn't take drastic, thirty-point net swings or whatnot in order for an election to be classified as a "re-alignment" according to this definition.