Why wasn't the "vibecession" a thing when Trump was POTUS? (user search)
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  Why wasn't the "vibecession" a thing when Trump was POTUS? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why wasn't the "vibecession" a thing when Trump was POTUS?  (Read 995 times)
quesaisje
Electric Circus
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« on: March 16, 2024, 06:43:54 PM »

Even if the rate of inflation is lower than it was in 2021 and 2022, basic things like housing and food are still considerably more expensive than they were in 2019.

It says a lot about the user base of this site that a popular answer to this question is to blame freedom of the press. Anyone who spends a few minutes reflecting on what it was like to manage a household budget in 2019 compared to today knows the answer to this question.
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quesaisje
Electric Circus
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Posts: 1,448
United States


« Reply #1 on: March 16, 2024, 09:02:20 PM »
« Edited: March 16, 2024, 09:05:36 PM by Electric Circus »

In 2019, US food inflation ranged from 1.6% to 2.1%, and as of February 2024, it is at 2.2%.
Yes, food prices are marginally higher than they were in 2019,but not nearly enough to justify such a huge difference in the public's perception of the economy at-large, especially since wages, employment rates, and stock prices have all increased significantly more than food prices.

And housing inflation has actually decreased since 2019 (2019: 2.89%, 2024: 2.75%).

Yes, inflation overall is slightly higher than in 2019, but wages, employment rates, stock prices, and just about everything else are significantly higher.

1. Food prices are around 25% higher than they were in 2019. That's not "marginally higher" for a lot of people.

2. Wages have barely kept pace with inflation, and have not kept pace with the cost of shelter in much of the country. Lots of people feel like they're struggling to get by even though it's easier to find work. Also, averages conceal variation. For many households, incomes have not kept pace.

3. Housing prices are rising more slowly because high interest rates have paralyzed the market. Lots of aspiring first-time homebuyers can't afford 7% on a 30-year loan. Plenty of homeowners aren't going to risk moving when that means doubling their rate.



Inflation creates anxiety that sticks with people even after the rate of inflation slows. It takes time for people to get accustomed to a new price level. Many Americans were too young to have experienced anything like that before.

Inflation also creates insecurity even for people whose incomes have grown with it, because most sources of income aren't guaranteed. If my cost of living increases by $20,000 per year, that is $20,000 that I need to earn every year, somehow, for the rest of my life.

I'm not sure what the argument is here. You win people over through empathy and persuasion, not by insisting that their views are invalid. No one is obliged to say that they like this economy just because you're happy with your preferred KPIs.
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quesaisje
Electric Circus
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Posts: 1,448
United States


« Reply #2 on: March 20, 2024, 03:04:04 PM »

What percentage of Americans is 'many'? According to data by the Department of Labor, 5% of Americans have more than one job and this is a relative high compared to recent years due to the inflation, so working two jobs doesn't seem to be a common occurrence.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/11/03/more-americans-working-multiple-jobs-under-inflation/71441008007/

In addition to this, the problem with AOC's comment was that having a second job does not affect the unemployment rate - the unemployed are people who are currently members of the labour force, however do not have a job and are looking for one.

Idk. If you Google it, surveys show anywhere from 34-50% of Americans have a "side hustle." Does DOL count that as a second "job?" Are a significant amount of these cash payments and not reported?

Maybe, but these are not comprehensive surveys of the labour force like DoL stats are. These are usually private companies asking Americans over the age of 18 if they have a 'side hustle' (do we know if these Americans are employed or not, is the term 'side hustle' defined in the survey, etc.? Asking the question in this way may include students and retired people that are not normally employed but maybe earn money doing something on the side).

For stats regarding the labour force, DoL is typically the best way to go.

The problem with this standard is that multiple jobs only rarely means multiple W-2s. I've never seen a solid number on this, but it's a common arrangement in some communities, and I would not expect most federal numbers to have a handle on how much happens outside of the formal labor market. Granted, this usually isn't a sign of acute economic distress. People have lots of reasons for supplementing their primary income.
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