Western countries where progressive politics has bright future

[Flats the Flounder]

I think these things come in waves, honestly. Right now, the political right is having a moment like it did around 10 years ago, but back around 2019-21, the left was actually doing pretty well, scoring wins in the Nordic countries, Germany, Spain, Australia, New Zealand, and the US.

As for where progressive/left-of-center politics seems to be set to imminently do well, I could see Ireland being one. Sinn Fein is actually pretty liberal on social issues, I think their main break from typical social democratic parties in Europe is that they're a bit more Euroskeptic.

I think in a few years, progressive politics will see a bit of a comeback.

[Flats the Flounder]

I think these things come in waves, honestly. Right now, the political right is having a moment like it did around 10 years ago, but back around 2019-21, the left was actually doing pretty well, scoring wins in the Nordic countries, Germany, Spain, Australia, New Zealand, and the US.

As for where progressive/left-of-center politics seems to be set to imminently do well, I could see Ireland being one. Sinn Fein is actually pretty liberal on social issues, I think their main break from typical social democratic parties in Europe is that they're a bit more Euroskeptic.

I think in a few years, progressive politics will see a bit of a comeback.

I think progressives will still win from time to time in Europe but their winning frequency and share of popular vote has been in long term decline.  Sure it is not a straight line and will get rebounds but little sign of turnaround.  I think only reason ever did well was support for welfare state and unlike US, none of right wing parties in Europe talk about gutting welfare state.  Without that issue off the table, Europeans are by and large right leaning thus why left having a tougher time. 

I guess it depends on what you mean by progressive here. I do think you bring up a good point, though. Social welfare was always a primary issue for social democrats in Europe during the 20th century, and largely seems like a settled issue there, so if by progressives you mean center-left social democratic parties, then I'd agree there.

Now I'm gonna get into a pet theory of mine, which is that the primary divide between progressives and conservatives will eventually start to transition from issues of welfare vs. markets to industry vs. environment, especially as climate change gets worse. I could definitely see this happening in European countries with strong welfare systems, and in some countries, it's already happening. The Netherlands' traditonal Labour party has already merged with its biggest green party, and there have been multiple periods in the past several years where the German Greens were the most popular party on the left. I wouldn't be surprised if this trend expands to other countries, too.

[Flats the Flounder]

The world has been getting more right wing for the past 50 years -- the longest period of conservative ascendancy since, at the very least, the industrial revolution. While this may come to an end, I fail to see how social democracy will necessarily "win". The populist right doesn't have the answers. So what? No one does. In the meantime, governments will continue to exist.

By what metric has it actually gotten more right-wing? Certainly not on social issues. You were lucky if you were in a place where it was legal to be LGBT for example in 1974, let alone safe.

[Flats the Flounder]

The world has been getting more right wing for the past 50 years -- the longest period of conservative ascendancy since, at the very least, the industrial revolution. While this may come to an end, I fail to see how social democracy will necessarily "win". The populist right doesn't have the answers. So what? No one does. In the meantime, governments will continue to exist.

By what metric has it actually gotten more right-wing? Certainly not on social issues. You were lucky if you were in a place where it was legal to be LGBT for example in 1974, let alone safe.

Though its still not as "safe" as we like to imagine in a lot of places now.

Sure but I'd definitely rather not go back to 1974, where there were still sodomy laws in 37 states

[Flats the Flounder]

The world has been getting more right wing for the past 50 years -- the longest period of conservative ascendancy since, at the very least, the industrial revolution. While this may come to an end, I fail to see how social democracy will necessarily "win". The populist right doesn't have the answers. So what? No one does. In the meantime, governments will continue to exist.

By what metric has it actually gotten more right-wing? Certainly not on social issues. You were lucky if you were in a place where it was legal to be LGBT for example in 1974, let alone safe.

On economic have definitely moved right.  Maybe not at the height of neo-liberalism like saw in 80s and 90s but generally parties that advocate more activist governments tend to lose more often than not. 

Yeah, you do actually have a good point there. Compared to 50 years ago, we have a much more right-wing economic system. That's not to say that couldn't change though, a poll done in June showed 61% of Americans hold left-wing economic views, a huge jump from even a few years ago: https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/june-2023-political-quadrants/

On social issues, it is varied.  On LGBT rights have moved left no doubt but on race relations and immigration I would say opposite.  That being said I also think when minorities are just that and pose no demographic threat, people more tolerant than if seen as being large enough to influence culture.  So perhaps maybe have moved left as in 50s I think most in West didn't want any non-whites whereas now its most okay with them as long as remain a minority.  Canada is the only Western country I can think of where majority would probably be okay with whites becoming a minority.  Opposition to immigration there now is more over high housing prices not changing demographics asides maybe in Quebec.

Race relations have definitely moved to the left compared to the 70s. We still have a long way to go on this front obviously, but people 50 years ago were still arguing in favor of segregation in the US. Apartheid was rampant in South Africa, and European powers were still fighting to hold on to their colonies.

I also think challenging establishment, academia runs much stronger and not just disagreeing but outright hostility to them.  Being called a Liberal elite 50 years ago wasn't the slur it is today.  Likewise in past you had strong post WWII consensus where all parties largely agreed on major issues and differences were more over details and degree.  Today you have parties doing well and winning that totally want to challenge the consensus.  You can have those on either side, but it is those on right winning, not left.  Sumar, Worker's Party of Belgium, Corbyn, Sanders would be examples on left challenging consensus but all losing.  Sinn Fein if they win and that is big if might be one exception to buck trend. 

Those figures you listed did lose, but I think they also helped push their respective countries to the left. Sanders definitely did, at least. For what it's worth, I think the Western/Eurocentric framing of this question is also a bit limiting. The 2000s saw a huge boom in left-wing support in Latin America, and despite right-wingers also getting elected in some countries since then, the region definitely is still seeing the effects of the pink tide.