North Rhine-Westphalia state election (5/22)

[CO-OWL]

The state really swung against the CDU in the 80s.

Why? Economic decline?

I would say a combination of popular SPD incumbent Johannes Rau (PM from 1978-98), lack of a decent CDU challenger and opposition bonus against the CDU/FDP federal government.
From what I've heard they ran very good election campaigns. The SPD successfully labelled itself THE NRW party, promoting social justice and government help for the declining coal and steel industries in the Ruhr area

From the 80s to the mid-90s the SPD generally did (much) better in state elections than in federal or local ones in NRW.

[CO-OWL]

Why didn't you bring up Ruettger's controversy?

If you refer to Rüttger's alleged remarks about the "superiority of the Catholic faith", IMHO that was much ado about nothing.

[CO-OWL]

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Partly because of the growing universities. IIRC in Münster more than 20% of the population are students. The cities got less Catholic and the urban Catholics became less conservative.

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I think that was mostly due to the FDP actively campaigning for Erststimmen. In Bonn and Münster the SPD candidates won their seats with just 40% of the vote.

[CO-OWL]

Yawn...no movement whatsoever...except that the FDP is lookign worryingly good...do you have a link to poll details or something? I'd like to know some no. of undecideds etc figures.

That's all I found:
http://www.welt.de/data/2005/05/13/718095.html
FGW says only 60% have already decided to vote and for which party. (I don't think turnout will be much higher than that.)
Infas says 16% of the voters are undecided.

The SPD's last hope is the TV debate on Tuesday.

[CO-OWL]

Good link: http://www.election.de/
Then click on "Nordrhein-Westfalen" (light yellow box on the left-hand side)

[CO-OWL]

New poll numbers:

Infratest-dimap (5/15)
CDU 43%
SPD 37%
Greens 7.5%
FDP 7.5%

CDU + FDP = 50.5%
SPD + Greens = 44.5%


Forsa (5/19) (after TV debate)
CDU 43%
SPD 36%
Greens 7%
FDP 7%

CDU + FDP = 50%
SPD + Greens = 43%


Looks great, but the only poll that matters is on Sunday!
If the NRW CDU does not win this time, they should join the Bavarian SPD in the "permanent opposition party club"...

[CO-OWL]

Official results NRW:

CDU: 44.8%    +6.8%  (89 seats - win 89 districts)
SPD: 37.1%    - 5.7%  (74 seats - win 39 districts)
FDP: 6.2%       -3.6%  (12 seats)
Greens: 6.2%  -0.9%  (12 seats - beat FDP by some 900 votes...)

Turnout: 63%  +6.3%


My district (Herford I):

CDU: 43.3%    +6.9%  (CDU gain)
SPD: 40.3%    - 6.3%  
FDP: 5.9%       -2.1%  
Greens: 5.1%  -0.6%

[CO-OWL]

Got a link for all the district results?

If you like an interactive map:
http://www.election.de/
Then click on the small map of NRW.

[CO-OWL]

...the election result itself does not matter much to me. I expected that. Anyways, I offered it in cosmic tradeoff for our promotion beforehands.

So cosmic tradeoff really works? Hmm, Hansa Rostock was relegated...
Does that mean a certain politician from MV will be quite successful?