Texas votes for a Democrat in 2020 or 2024

[Sumner 1868]

The Texas GOP is very skilled at winning over Hispanics (who are already bleeding generationally to the GOP at the national level) so I don't see why people think this is happening.

As for the "swing" in 2016, let's look a little closer:

Bexar County
Obama 2008: 52.23
Obama 2012: 51.46
Clinton 2016: 54.19

Colin County
Obama 2008: 36.66
Obama 2012: 33.41
Clinton 2016: 38.91

Denton County
Obama 2008: 37.47
Obama 2012: 33.35
Clinton 2016: 37.13

Fort Bend
Obama 2008: 48.50
Obama 2012: 46.08
Clinton 2016: 51.39

So she clearly did a bit better in the overhyped suburbs...but still not very well.

[Sumner 1868]

Since when?

It's up for debate, but it's a fact in the 1960s Democrats were carrying 90 percent of the Hispanic vote. Today they hoover around two-thirds.

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I can't find the exact chart (probably due to Google-bombing since the election) but it showed that in 2012 that 70+ Hispanics were about 15% Republican, Boomers a bit more than them, Xers a bit more than Boomers, while the youngest Hispanics were about 31 percent Republican. That's still majority Democratic, but it shows a bad sign for the future. Hispanics are going to be more assimilated whether the far-right likes it or not, and when that happens they'll move onto new bogeymen.

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A bad sign itself. Shouldn't he, after everything, have done abysmally worse?

[Sumner 1868]

The Texas GOP is very skilled at winning over Hispanics (who are already bleeding generationally to the GOP at the national level) so I don't see why people think this is happening.

Since when? And what generation(s)/age groups? Trump's performance with young (18-29) Hispanics was about as poor as Romney.

Indeed, the large generational gap in Hispanic heavy states like Texas and Arizona don't exactly support this. There is evidence that this is happening amongst blacks though.

I couldn't age and race polling in either of those states.