UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Barnes]

Stop turning this thread into a sewer the lot of you.

Hear hear!

[Barnes]

Gerald Coyne, Len McCluskey's opponent to lead Unite, has been suspended from the union just before the leadership votes are to be counted. Can't see this playing out particularly well.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/20/unite-union-gerard-coyne-suspended-west-midlands-len-mccluskey-uk?CMP=twt_gu

[Barnes]

in order for Labour to get a majority of 1 they'd need a uniform swing around the levels that Blair got in 1997

I think it's fair to say that using Scotland ended up bad for Labour

How? Wouldn't a hung parliament most likely lead to a Labour-SNP government?

Forcing a hung parliament shouldn't be hard (let's forget about the polling for a second).

The quirk of our system is that you don't need a Labour-SNP government (e.g SNP having cabinet posts) but you'd rather just say to the SNP that they should support the government on confidence votes+budget+Queens Speech in exchange for some changes.

An interesting change is that a lot of 'unionist' voters are now voting in a bloc in Scotland more so than in 2015 (or so I've read)

So we could have a lot of Labour/Liberals voting for Tories in certain seats, and so on.

Indeed this is how governments are usually formed at Westminster without majorities. The full coalition of 2010 through the results of an election was more of an aberration than the norm.  

[Barnes]

What I always remember about UK elections and this Forum are the annual questions from Americans and others unfamiliar with the results announcement spectacle of candidates lined up on a platform wearing over sized rosettes, and long may that polite confusion remain.

Well I prefer addressing some polite confusion than answering "will UKIP get a majority?"

[Barnes]

The LibDems have just nominated an unrepentant racist at Bradford East.

Is that the same guy who use to be their MP?

The one and the only.

[Barnes]

Opinium;
Con 45 (+7) Lab 26 (-3) LD 11 (+4) UKIP 9 (-5)

Opinium also did approvals for most of the party leaders:

Theresa May: 49% approval/28% disapproval (net +21)
Jeremy Corbyn: 18% approval/53% disapproval (net -35)
Tim Farron: 17% approval/35% disapproval (net -18)
Paul Nuttall: 11% approval/42% disapproval (net -31)

[Barnes]

Theresa May: 49% approval/28% disapproval (net +21)

It's easy to mock firms like Opinium - and right to really - but this is a telling statistic. Those are by no means terrible figures, but they should not be leading to a potential landslide.

I was thinking similarly. May's stratospheric approvals have gone down but being miles ahead of Corbyn puts her in landslide territory by default.

[Barnes]

Dumb question: wonder if any of the regional parties could keep a deposit in any constituency outside their home area. SNP outside of Scotland might have more appeal to some than other non-Tory parties.

So, wonder if this election result will inspire some to become more supportive of IRV systems over FPTP

I think this has been discussed before, and the only remotely possible location is for the SNP in Corby, but even that seems like a stretch for them to retain their deposit.

There was some Irish Nationalist who was elected to represent part of Liverpool in the early 20th century as I recall.

Edit: Yes, it was Liverpool, though T.P. O'Connor was actually first elected in 1885 and held the seat until his death in 1929, having been unopposed for reelection in all elections after 1910.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_Scotland_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

The banner was in many ways simply a vehicle for his continued election and had basically nothing to do with Irish Nationalsim after 1918, but it's a very amusing tidbit of history.

To the original post, I wouldn't really understand the point in doing that even if there was a possibility they could get votes, which is distinctly unrealistic.

[Barnes]

As predicted, Zac Goldsmith is back for Richmond Park--as a Tory again, of all things!

Oh, and the Lib Dems are standing down in Brighton Pavilion to support Lucas, presumably.

[Barnes]

Paul Nuttall will contest a yet to be revealed seat.

[Barnes]

The Labour NEC has denied Simon Danczuk, the controversial MP for Rochdale, preselection for any seat in the country.

[Barnes]

In case anyone missed it, Parliament was automatically dissolved at a minute past midnight today.

[Barnes]

Have to say that I'm deeply uncomfortable - and not just because I worry it might be effective - at May's use of the trappings of State for an election address. This is very much Not Done.

One does wonder what Sir Humphrey would say!

[Barnes]

I'm sure UKIP's financial woes are the main reason for their failure to run a full slate.

[Barnes]

LucidTalk Northern Ireland poll (27-29 Apr)
DUP - 29.4% (+3.7)
SF - 27.7% (+3.2)
UUP - 14.8% (-1.2)
SDLP - 12.4% (-1.5)
All - 10.2% (+1.6)

With a uniform swing, this would see the DUP up 2, SF up 1, the UUP wiped out, and the SDLP down 1.

[Barnes]

LucidTalk Northern Ireland poll (27-29 Apr)
DUP - 29.4% (+3.7)
SF - 27.7% (+3.2)
UUP - 14.8% (-1.2)
SDLP - 12.4% (-1.5)
All - 10.2% (+1.6)

With a uniform swing, this would see the DUP up 2, SF up 1, the UUP wiped out, and the SDLP down 1.

It's Northern Ireland, so there won't be a uniform swing.  (And the accuracy of polling is questionable...)

Truer words have never been typed!

[Barnes]

As far as policies go, this document isn't anywhere close to 1983, but on the other hand, Michael Foot was a far superior leader, so it's tit for tat, I suppose.

[Barnes]

As far as policies go, this document isn't anywhere close to 1983, but on the other hand, Michael Foot was a far superior leader, so it's tit for tat, I suppose.

Wait 1983 was actually more liberal then 2017

Well, the Labour Party is not a liberal party, but if you mean more left-wing, then yes.

[Barnes]

ComRes poll finds people largely support the manifesto pledges but don't like Corbyn.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/poll-shows-people-love-labours-10404216

This, and the massive sizes of his rallies, convinced Foot the polls were off in '83. Another depressing tidbit of Labour history.

It's interesting to see how many people would actually support the implementation and consequences of these policies as opposed to just saying they sound good.

[Barnes]

You'll find that the Prodigal Son, David, got the largest number of votes among both MPs and among the party membership. Ed only won through his support among affiliated supporters; something which was used as rather a bludgeon against him later, of course...

[Barnes]

The thing is, though, those Lib Dem areas are, in many cases, areas which had extended support for the Liberals stretching back to the 19th century. Voting Liberal is really rather generational, just like paying homage to the household gods.

[Barnes]

Odd that the Other Place doesn't even get a passing shot in this manifesto. Which is the first time that's happened since 1987.

 Whatever shall we do without our diresory "Senate of the Regions"?!

[Barnes]

Odd that the Other Place doesn't even get a passing shot in this manifesto. Which is the first time that's happened since 1987.

 Whatever shall we do without our diresory "Senate of the Regions"?!

Ooh, I was pointed in the right direction to find the missing clause.

[Barnes]

And more specifically to Labour, Republicanism was the goal of the party until really the Good Friday Agreement. Which always meant Callaghan relying on both Gerry Fitt and Enoch Powell to win votes was rather dicey.

[Barnes]

"Do you think the long-term policy for Northern Ireland should be for it to remain part of the United Kingdom or to unify with the rest of Ireland?"



Responses from the British Social Attitudes Survey by NatCen.