2017 French Presidential Election

[Barnes]

The fact that Macron is hanging on to a runoff by his fingernail tips just shows how weak the pro EU center-to-center-left is right now.  Considering he has practically no competition for his niche, he should probably be in the thirties, at least.

Macron is running as a complete upstart with no party organization and an overwhelming majority of voters having never heard of him before a couple of months ago. To be honest, in my opinion, there's no reason why he should be doing as well as he is.

Also, the last time a "Centrist pro-EU" candidate made it to the second round (not runoff) was 1981 with Giscard, although the comparison of their economic liberalism are somewhat different.

Considering he has practically no competition for his niche,

i am not sure if the EU topic is the most important point of this election inside of france.

Also, this is correct. The French are much more concerned with sclerotic growth and an "erosion of values," whatever that means.

[Barnes]

Nate Silver says he's worried about pollster herding. Look at how consistent these numbers are:



https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/853998602754158592

However, that's normal, given the usual French polling methods (they use quota sampling).

Exactly. This level of consistency is very common for the presidential election.

[Barnes]

The Orleanist pretender to the French throne has endorsed Fillon. This changes everything!

[Barnes]

The Orleanist pretender to the French throne has endorsed Fillon. This changes everything!

are there more than a 100 people in whole of France that would care about it?

Monarchism has its niche, just like Assileneau's ideas, and its vocal enough to be considered larger than 100.

1793 people in France care about this...

Never forget!

[Barnes]

Tracking polls

OpinionWay - stable
Macron: 23%
Le Pen: 22%
Fillon: 20%
Mélenchon: 19%
Hamon: 8%
Dupont-Aignan: 4%
Poutou: 2%
Lassalle and Asselineau: 1%
Arthaud and Cheminade: 0%

Ifop
Macron: 24% (+0.5)
Le Pen: 22.5% (=)
Fillon: 19.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 18.5% (=)
Hamon: 7% (-0.5)
Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=)
Poutou and Lassalle: 1.5% (=)
Asselineau: 1% (=)
Arthaud: 0.5% (=)
Cheminade: 0% (=)

Turnout indicator for Ifop still rising, now 73%

Encouraging to see the turnout indicator tipping up; harkens back to Windjammer's earlier point that people finally become engaged as the vote approaches.

Personally I think turnout will be in the range of 70 to 75% but should have a stronger increase on 2012 in the second round.