Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Barnes]

Well of course Thurbert Baker and Jim Thurmond would show that's not the case, but they had become entrenched in their positions, I will grant you.

Abrams is a fine candidate but has encountered criticism for forging deals with the Republcian leadership in the General Assembly. Personally, I can't fault her for being willing to negotiate to save the HOPE scholarship from being totally eviscersted as was the original Republican plan several years ago.

Jason Carter is almost certainly not going to run now that Representative Stacey Evans is considering a bid.

[Barnes]

Well of course Thurbert Baker and Jim Thurmond would show that's not the case, but they had become entrenched in their positions, I will grant you.

Abrams is a fine candidate but has encountered criticism for forging deals with the Republcian leadership in the General Assembly. Personally, I can't fault her for being willing to negotiate to save the HOPE scholarship from being totally eviscersted as was the original Republican plan several years ago.

Jason Carter is almost certainly not going to run now that Representative Stacey Evans is considering a bid.

Were not both Baker's and  Thurmond's successes pre-2010? If so, they are (sadly) almost irrelevant now. Voter's polarization by race is substantially higher now then before, and in most cases Democrats can only dream about resurracting old "Blacks+moderate whites" coalition of 1990th-2000th...

Oh I'm simply pointing out that black Democrats have won statewide offices in Georgia many times. The 2010 election was quite devastating for the state Democrats as they held many of the statewide offices below the Governor with incumbents who were in for years and either retired or in Baker and Thurmond's case both ran unsuccessfully for a promotion. The electoral shifts have obviously been the main factor but incumbency would have, in my opinion, at least placed the Democrats at even odds for those races in 2010.

[Barnes]

This flew understandably under the radar to the congressional race, but tomorrow is the runoff for the 32nd Georgia Senate district. This is actually inside of the Ga-6 and was estimated to have switched from a ten point Romney margin to a twenty point Clinton win in 2016. Still, the combined Republican vote was about 66% in April, and a lot of voters didn't realize this would be on a separate date from the congressional runoff.

[Barnes]

Lol, yep you're right, Adam. I misread the article from which I got that info. The 6th District, which is being vacated by Hunter Hill, actually switched from a Romney to Clinton stronghold.

What's really funny is that Triebsch has spent most of last week chaperoning her daughter's school trip to D.C. 

[Barnes]

Not really, no. Abrams has been heavily criticized by some Democrats (at least privately) for cooperating with Ralston, the Speaker of the House, and Nathan Deal.

Evans, meanwhile, is making opposition to the HOPE reforms, which Abrams helped negotiate, a central plank of her platform.

[Barnes]

It it does turn out to be a battles of the Staceys, this will be the first gubernatorial election in Georgia's history where the nominee of either major party is a woman. This will also be the first election since 1990 that a woman will be on the general election ballot.

[Barnes]

It it does turn out to be a battles of the Staceys, this will be the first gubernatorial election in Georgia's history where the nominee of either major party is a woman. This will also be the first election since 1990 that a woman will be on the general election ballot.

Is Cagle likely to win the GOP Nomination?

He is, in many ways, the default candidate, mainly by simply sitting in his role of Lieutenant Governor for twelve years now. He has very few political allies in the Legislature, however, and not much influence within the Senate majority.

That being said, people are only vaguely aware of Kemp, and many probably because of the voter hacking fiasco. I should except the race to add more candidates, but Cagle's withdrawal from the 2010 primary probably endeared him with enough power players to stop a very forceful challenge.

[Barnes]

The Stacey's and Jason Carter were the only Dem candidates I was aware of exploring a run. Are there any other prospective Dem primary challengers?

Not really, to my knowledge, anyway. A few people still bring up Michelle Nunn's name, but I think she's much more interested in running her charity to launch another political bid.

If you want to think of the Two Staceys (official name for this primary, btw) in terms of wings, Evans and Carter are both affiliated with Roy Barnes and take a much more suspicious take on cooperation with Republicans--more orthodox, I suppose.  Abrams is very close with Jon Ossoff and was an early and high-profile surrogate for Clinton in the state during the election, and, as I posted earlier, very effective in working with the Republicans in the General Assembly.

[Barnes]

Stacey Abrams has officially declared her candidacy. Bring on the Battle of the Two Staceys!