Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[ajc0918]

The absentees still look worse than 2019, though it looks like Dane, since it has so many more polling places, might save democrats.

https://twitter.com/B_M_Finnigan/status/1247508356316749824

Looks like WOW is losing more out of this than Dane+MKE (probably due to Dane staying afloat in this whole mess).

Proportionally speaking, WOW was at 53% of Dane+MKE. Currently, WOW is at 60% of Dane+MKE right now. However, Dane has more than 10 times the polling places open today, and curbside voting, which means that we're likely to end up reducing that difference to under 50% by the end of the day.

What margin does Jill Karofsky need to win? Is sub-50% good enough?

[ajc0918]

There's a report on twitter from Green Bay which has two voting locations. Voters in the beginning of the line have waited three hours and a voter just left at 4:40PM and was voter 535.

That does not appear to be good turnout but there is still an hours long line so who knows.

[ajc0918]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1247883118255591428

From Craig Gilbert of the Journal Sentinel: MKE has now returned more absentees than last years SCOWIS race. Same is true in Kenosha, and Waukesha, Walworth, and Dane are close.

Can someone translate this for me?

[ajc0918]

This doesn't mean much but random people who are aggregating county / city turnout numbers on twitter think that Karofsky did what she needed to do. But it's close. Especially because not everyone is reporting turnout figures.  

[ajc0918]

This doesn't mean much but random people who are aggregating county / city turnout numbers on twitter think that Karofsky did what she needed to do. But it's close. Especially because not everyone is reporting turnout figures.  

source?

Keep in mind these are from RANDOM people who are tracking turnout themselves. Who knows how accurate their analysis is.

https://twitter.com/shownshrk/status/1248303479942262789?s=20

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1248243975032471556?s=20

https://twitter.com/mrw71311/status/1248259073004449792?s=20

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1248288725110587392?s=20

[ajc0918]

New figures from Dane County (Madison, WI). For reference Dane County delivered around 152,000 votes in the 2019 supreme court election. The appear to be on track to exceed 200,000 as mail ballots come in.

Edit: It's possible Dane + Milwaukee exceed 400,000 votes which would be around 100,000 more than in the 2019 election. If that happen it would be good for Karofsky.

https://twitter.com/shownshrk/status/1248315829424402432

[ajc0918]

PredictIt markets are moving heavily toward Karofsky.

[ajc0918]

Jill has this.

[ajc0918]

In other news: Lisa Neubauer is now leading in her race for the second court of appeals as well.

[ajc0918]

This race will not be close once Madison and Milwaukee drop.

[ajc0918]

Hard to extrapolate this to November but some of the swings could be ominous. Especially because turnout was high all around.

[ajc0918]

I want to see how high this margin goes when Madison and Dane finally finish their count.

Remember that Waukesha still has a bit left outstanding.

I wonder if Jill will break a 100k vote statewide margin?

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1249852726516867072?s=20

[ajc0918]

Is there a region name for the area with Outagamie, Winnebago, and Brown counties? Karofsky is doing very well there.

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1249857416885342210

Why are the Ds losing the county that has Stevens Point in it?

52-48 with only 30% in. It could flip. Idk where the current results are from within the county.

[ajc0918]

If Karofsky is at 76% in Dane... her Madison proper performance probably like 85% right?

[ajc0918]

Why is southwest WI so left leaning? It's very rural right?

[ajc0918]

Great wins in the judicial races. So now a 4-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court. Is that a hard conservative 4 justice majority? Or is there a more moderate conservative who's willing to break ranks on big, partisan, cases?

One GOP justice is slightly more moderate.

Yes and Kelly was very conservative so while this race doesn't flip control it will impact some cases. For example, I saw a tweet in this thread, saying those opposing the WI voter purge now have a majority.

[ajc0918]

I think it's Hagedorn, the one who barely beat Neubauer last year.

Yes Hagedorn sided with the two liberals on the voter purge suit. Karofsky's win likely means it will be rejected.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/11/voter-purge-conservatives-ask-court-fast-track-wisconsin-case/5021246002/

[ajc0918]

This is over lol

Janet wins by at least 5%+ closer to 10% more likely

[ajc0918]

In SD-8, village of Richfield in Washington County (population 12,000, approx 75-25 Trump) still hasn’t reported any votes. This will probably mean Jodi will lose the lead; that being said, she does have two wards in Ozaukee that could net her ~200 votes yet.

Buckle up.

There's also some Milwaukee County portion left, no?

I think there's enough for Dems to pick up SD8