Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[ajc0918]

If any Florida political veterans can help me out, do dems typically vote after work? ie will GOP margins in certain counties increase? My county (Pinellas) saw a surge of early morning GOP voters. I'm wondering if that'll continue throughout the day or if Dems will chip away at it as the day goes on?

[ajc0918]

If any Florida political veterans can help me out, do dems typically vote after work? ie will GOP margins in certain counties increase? My county (Pinellas) saw a surge of early morning GOP voters. I'm wondering if that'll continue throughout the day or if Dems will chip away at it as the day goes on?

Source?

I'm mainly just wondering if Dems win the after work hours vs the morning hours. GOP is expected to outvote dems here in terms of registration (they almost always do sans 2008). Dems, if they win Pinellas, will win due to NPAs.

https://www.votepinellas.com/Election-Information/Elections/Current-Upcoming-Elections/2018-General-Election/Voter-Turnout

[ajc0918]

Anyone know what this site is because predictit won’t stop spamming it as proof Scott will win https://thefloridasqueeze.com

He's a doom and gloomer, everything he says is either "Dems running away with it" or "ZERO chance for the Dems"

Dems I know feel pretty good right now but things could obviously change.

[ajc0918]

We talked a while back if the D could hold the House in 2020.

If the 11 seat majority is accurate, it becomes very possible. 

There would need to 24 abstentions of Democrats for Pelosi to lose the speakership, which is unlikely.

What might be likely is something along the lines is something along the lines of a Blue Dog/New Democrat Coalition group that might hold the balance of power.  This would only require 11-20 vote shift.     

Unless something changes, I feel good about our chances to take back the House in 2020 as long as Trump/the Republican nominee isn't getting blown out.  Democrats got several fluky wins tonight (SC-1, OK-5, NY-11) and I don't think they will stay this strong in Southern suburbs (GA-6, TX-7, TX-32) forever.

These areas are only getting more diverse though so it bodes well for Dems. The other three I agree with except NY-11, that could stay Dem.

[ajc0918]

What ballots are left in Florida? Provisionals and that's it?

Apparently over 100,000 ballots still uncounted, with a strong Democratic lean on them.

On-the-day absentees. I think it will be around a 10k margin when they are counted. Not enough for a recount to make a difference but hard to be totally certain on the pre-recount figures. Plus provisionals of course.

Keep in mind though that Nikki Fried, the Dem candidate for Ag Commissioner is only down 17,000 votes. There could be enough votes for her.

[ajc0918]

What ballots are left in Florida? Provisionals and that's it?

Apparently over 100,000 ballots still uncounted, with a strong Democratic lean on them.

On-the-day absentees. I think it will be around a 10k margin when they are counted. Not enough for a recount to make a difference but hard to be totally certain on the pre-recount figures. Plus provisionals of course.

Keep in mind though that Nikki Fried, the Dem candidate for Ag Commissioner is only down 17,000 votes. There could be enough votes for her.

Correction, she's down 12,500 votes. There may be enough for her.

[ajc0918]

Per CNN: Bill Nelson officially requesting a recount in his race against Rick Scott.

I think the difference of about 34,000 votes is too wide to turn this. Another one of the countless Florida heartbreakers (president 2000, governors 2010, 2014, 2018). The only one out of the uncalled senate races with a shot is Tester.

The margin has since dropped to 30,000 votes.

[ajc0918]

Update from AZ: "estimated 500K uncounted ballots in Maricopa. Update on uncounted ballots at 10 am".

Half a million?

That’s a typo right

Closer to 480k I think but yes

[ajc0918]

Is there any chance for a victory in FL AG Commissioner? It's the closest of all statewide races.

Yes but it's slim. Broward, Duval, and Palm Beach all have some mail ballots still to count. And Broward also has some EV votes to count. It'll be close but she might be able to pull it off. There are about 34k votes in Broward to count (17k which are VBMs).

[ajc0918]

Democratic Super Lawyer is getting involved in Florida. Looks like he'll have an announcement of some sorts tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1060347112213360640

A path to victory for Nelson exists but it's narrow and likely involves provisional ballots.

[ajc0918]

Could Golden still win in ME-02 with automatic runoff?

[ajc0918]

OMG. Karen Handel going down is amazing. She's also legitimately horrible and extremely bigotted.

RIP Karen

[ajc0918]

My friend in the Nelson camp just said "the numbers are looking better and better for us" but that it'll be really close. Scott camp is nervous because they see the numbers tightening too.

[ajc0918]

Not relevant to most of you but I expect Nikki Fried, Dem candidate for Commissioner of Agriculture, to win once all of the votes are in. She's currently down by 4,000 votes, the closest of any of the statewide races.

[ajc0918]

Honestly the Ga 6th special election looking back on it was easily the worst competetive federal special election for the dems(The utah and texas one were worse but the dems didn't care) The fact they couldn't win a special election in a trump +1 district was kind of embarrassing and it should have been a freebie. I feel like the dems got whiffed and didn't want to try again until this late.

Scalise shooting shifted GA-6 special

[ajc0918]

Democrat took the lead in the Agricultural Commissioner race:

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1060609182544642048

Looks like we’ll at least have 1 statewide office holder in the sunshine state.

How does an unknown Ag Commissioner candidate beat out two high profile races with well-known candidates?!

Unknown to who? Nikki got publicity for her stances on marijuana and on standing up to the NRA. She got a lot of press after multiple banks shut down her campaign accounts due to her stances on medical marijuana. Her opponent was more unknown.

[ajc0918]

Nelson might actually win this ...

Most counties have not even started their provisional vote count yet.

Not to mention, Palm Beach (VBM) and Broward (VBM and EV) are still counting votes. The only countries who have counted provisional ballots are small rural counties.

The deadline to cure ballots is 5PM today and let me tell you, Dems are out in force knocking and calling every provisional ballot to get it fixed. They've organized in every urban county to go door to door in the past 36 hours.

[ajc0918]

Nelson's camp seems more optimistic now than they were yesterday about the gap narrowing. Now that they've entered into a hand recount it's an entire new ballpark in regards to under voting and provisionals.

[ajc0918]

Is there anyone who really thinks that such a big mistake happened? It does not count the opinion of the desperate democrats.

There haven't been any mistakes... the final counting of the vote is just taking place.

[ajc0918]

Remaining votes in Palm Beach. Nelson won Palm Beach 58.4%-41.6%.

https://twitter.com/talanez/status/1060632738112458754

[ajc0918]

Remaining votes in Palm Beach. Nelson won Palm Beach 58.4%-41.6%.

https://twitter.com/talanez/status/1060632738112458754

oof, that doesnt look like enough

This is in addition to Broward which potentially has 25k votes left to count plus the prospect of a 30k under vote issue (if it is actually a tabulation issue)

[ajc0918]

Wait so the 25K error is 100% Nelson voters?

No but the under vote in Broward was so extreme in comparison to the rest of the state that more people votes in cabinet races than for U.S. Senate. There is confusion on why that is since Senate was a marquee race. Nelson would benefit from these voters.

Broward SOE was using new machines so there is thought that there could be some sort of error since the under vote in Broward was huge compared to the rest of the state. Nelson's lawyers don't believe it is due to ballot design.

[ajc0918]

Yeah republicans are gonna steal this seat

Yeah I think so too. Scott will call for an injunction of some sort.

[ajc0918]

A couple notes about the undervote:

Nelson has 10,301 fewer votes in Broward County than Gillum
Scott has 10,647 fewer votes in Broward County than DeSantis

Also, Broward County, as far as I can tell, is not reporting any results on their site for the FL-24 race, but they are reporting results for the uncontested FL-20 race. As far as I can tell, there may not have even been a FL-24 slot on the ballot. CNN reports Hastings with 201,000+ votes in the FL-20 race, but 0 votes for Wilson in the FL-24 race.

wait WHAT

There are 0 votes for Wilson because she wasn't on the ballot. She ran unopposed.

[ajc0918]

Rip McSally