State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[ajc0918]

Nice. Both flipped seats will be hard to hold but still good temporary pick ups, shows Dems are motivated to vote.

[ajc0918]

Taddeo leads Rivas Logan 40-23 per this poll of SD-40.

Do you think Taddeo can win the general? I use to like her but she has continued to lose.

[ajc0918]

Absentee ballots in MO HD-50:

Michela Skelton (D)   195   
Sara Walsh (R)   81

Woohoo!

Is absentee voting not a a regular thing in MO? This seems like very low numbers

[ajc0918]

SD40 win in Florida is a massive boost for morale for Florida Democrats. Nobody really thought she would win and she was outspent handily. South Florida will be a battleground ripe for pick ups in 2018.

[ajc0918]

As a reminder, in the last florida special two weeks ago, the Republican candidate won the first wave of the early vote by high single digits, and continued to lead in the overall tally until the election day votes started coming in. Don't panic until it's actually justified to do so.

The chances of a democratic pick up are minimal. I would be surprised if this race was even within 10 points.

[ajc0918]

Early/absentee votes in Florida's 58th district (election tomorrow)

broken link deleted

From the look of it, the higher turnout areas are all DEM leaning. However, this would be a hard seat to flip given the candidate and his fundraising disadvantage but I know there has been a decent amount of grassroots activity. DEM would need to win election day votes by a good margin I would think to have a chance. And there's a liberal independent "Bernie" type candidate on the ballot which will draw from the DEMs.

[ajc0918]

New poll for the FL HD-72 special election on February 13th.

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/254405-new-hd-72-polling-puts-james-buchanan-margaret-good-virtual-tie

James Buchanan (R): 49
Margaret Good (D): 46

This is a Trump 51-46 district

Good to know where this race stands. Considering Good is running against Vern Buchanan's son, it's good to see this race is close. I'd expect the Buchanan's to throw in some last minute cash to swing the race but Good has grassroots support on her side.

Edit: Just read that good outraised Buchanan almost 2 to 1 in December.

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http://floridapolitics.com/archives/253373-democrat-margaret-good-fundraising-coming-strong-hd-72-special-election-heats

[ajc0918]

D+1! The misery in Missouri continues for the GOP.

[ajc0918]

Final poll of FL-HD-72 shows Good leading Buchanan 48% to 45%. This is a six point swing for Good since January 24th, when Buchanan led her 49% to 46%.

However it'll all come down to turnout as Good is leading those who have already voted 57% to 39% whereas Buchanan is leading among those yet to vote 53% to 38%. It's going to be a close one.

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_HD72_GEN_February11_Z29W.pdf

[ajc0918]

Very excited for the win in HD72! I drove down to Sarasota this weekend from St. Pete to canvass for her and could feel the energy! Florida Democrats have now won three bellweather races (HD-72, SD-40, and St. Pete Mayor's Race) since Trump was elected.