SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

But as the Greens notoriously overpreform in polls  something quite extraordinary would be required for that to happen. (in august 2010 only 2% seperated them from S, but on election day they were 9% behind)

What is the reason for this?

If I was to guess, it'd be young people telling pollsters one thing, then not turning up to vote on the day

That's probably not it, because the Greens tends to over-preform in Exit Polls as well. 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Feminist Initiative is proposing a special tax that only men will have to pay, in order to even out the sallery gap between the genders... FI's leader, Gudrun Schyman, doesn't want to call it a Man Tax though... "That sounds wrong... I prefer the term Equality Tax".

Because nothing quite says equality like having people pay different tax levels based on their gender.

Apperently Schyman thinks this will be a big vote winner. I'm sceptical...
At least S, V, and MP can rejoice that the pink voter leech will have destroyed itself by September 14th.   


 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Yes, really two worlds apart.

Well really there is Skåne inbetween which is something of a mix of the two.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Meh, the budget thing is mostly concern-trolling from the right to be honest. As is the left's fear that the Alliance will all of a sudden join forces with SD to stay in power no matter what. If Reinfeldt wanted to take that route, he wouldn't make a speech enraging SD-core supporters and even some of his own voters a few weeks before the election. Both claims have little to no basis in reality and are purely tactical talking-points.

The Left is clearly trying to scare working-class people who hate the government into thinking that a vote for SD is a vote for the Alliance in order to keep them in the Labour camp. While the right is trying to continue building on the "The Left won't be able to govern together" narrative they've desperately been trying to push with cake commercials and what not.     

The idea that a S+MP government wouldn't be able to pass a budget all presume two things that are far from certain. 

1) That S+MP doesn't make a budget deal with V, similarly to what Persson made with V and MP 1998-2002. After all V has only said they won't join a government that doesn't ban profits in the welfare sector, not that they will never support their budgets.

2) That the Alliance will keep making a joint budget once they're in opposition. Far from certain. They might very well do it the first budget process after the election, but I have a hard time seeing them keep that up for four years.

Of course, I know that close to election people always like to imagine the worst case scenario, but as long as the relationship between S+MP and V doesn't sour completely before October 1st, it's not going to happen.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I don't think anyone genuinely doubts that S, V and MP could make a budget together. The question is what happens if they don't have a majority which is still a feasible scenario. A budget that V is on board with would probably be a hard sell to any of the other parties. This is why S keeps flirting with C/FP.

Indeed, but as long as S/V/MP is bigger than the Alliance they can govern as a minority as long as SD doesn't join an Alliance budget. Finding cross-aisle support for individual policies is also hard but perhaps more doable.

Yeah, that is what it comes down to, and since it's extremely unlikely that SD would all of a sudden do a 180 degree turn and unquestionably vote for an Alliance budget they had no influence on, especially not just a month and a half after the Alliance was just rejected by the voters.   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Is there any other good English-speaking site besides this thread here and thelocal.se to follow election news ?

Not any that I know of.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

OK, guys, stop this. Danish and Swedish media both love to score cheap points through demonizing the other country, which affects our relations negatively. No need to keep that demonization rolling. There are things both countries can learn from each other.

What are you, a Dane?

Nah, more like a Scanian. A real Dane would not have admitted Denmark can learn anything from Sweden.

Never! A true Scanian such as myself would call both Danes and Swedes deluded and moronic. We just want our independence from the both of you.

The obvious answer is that Tayya is Norwegian. There's no point denying it! There's astounding proof of this theory, such as the fact that he didn't make a single forum post on May 17th! Now that can only mean one thing:

 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The Gothenburg government is of course the (or at least one of the) worst in the entire country. But that was true four years ago as well, and if we didn't manage to outs them back then, we won't this time either with the national winds. The fact that voting has shifted so little compared to national trends of course still speaks volumes and is bad enough for the Social Democrats. (Still won't stop their mayor from getting a cushy job in the new administration on the national level.)

What surprises me is how badly FI is polling. Seeing as they polled pretty strong for Stockholm City Council, I would have expected they at least would outdo their national polling support here.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The Gothenburg government is of course the (or at least one of the) worst in the entire country. But that was true four years ago as well, and if we didn't manage to outs them back then, we won't this time either with the national winds. The fact that voting has shifted so little compared to national trends of course still speaks volumes and is bad enough for the Social Democrats. (Still won't stop their mayor from getting a cushy job in the new administration on the national level.)

What surprises me is how badly FI is polling. Seeing as they polled pretty strong for Stockholm City Council, I would have expected they at least would outdo their national polling support here.

I must admit I find the fact that they get more than 1% of the vote amazing, who votes for them?

Pretentious 20-something hipsters who see elections as a chance at making a statement, and not as actually choosing people to govern us for the next four years. They're a fad, and they'll once more disappear into obscurity once they fail to enter parliament in three weeks.

Still, with around 2-3% of the support they should be able to conquer seats at a few City Council besides Schyman's home town of Simrishamn, and Gothenburg should be a prime target, but if they can't muster more than 1,5% in a city that brim with their target audience, they're becoming irrelevant even faster than I'd have expected them to. 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

New Sifo poll:

S: 29,0% (-1,9%) 106 seats
V: 6,1% (-1,4%) 22 seats
MP: 11,0% (+0,7%) 40 seats

M: 22,6% (+0,4%) 82 seats
C: 5,9% (+0,4%) 22 seats
FP: 5,8% (-0,2%) 21 seats
KD: 4,5% (+0,2%) 16 seats

SD: 11,0% (+0,9%) 40 seats
FI: 2,9% (+0,6%) 0 seats

* * * * * * * * *

Alliance - 141 seats
Mushrooms - 163 seats

The left is 7 seats short of an overall majority. HUNG PARLIAMENT!!!

Who'd have ever guessed that Gudrun Schyman would end up as the savior of the right. How long until left-wing people start calling for FI-supporters to abondon the party for tacticaal reasons again... counting down three.. two.. 
 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

New Sifo poll:

S: 29,0% (-1,9%) 106 seats
V: 6,1% (-1,4%) 22 seats
MP: 11,0% (+0,7%) 40 seats

M: 22,6% (+0,4%) 82 seats
C: 5,9% (+0,4%) 22 seats
FP: 5,8% (-0,2%) 21 seats
KD: 4,5% (+0,2%) 16 seats

SD: 11,0% (+0,9%) 40 seats
FI: 2,9% (+0,6%) 0 seats

* * * * * * * * *

Alliance - 141 seats
Mushrooms - 163 seats

The left is 7 seats short of an overall majority. HUNG PARLIAMENT!!!

Who'd have ever guessed that Gudrun Schyman would end up as the savior of the right. How long until left-wing people start calling for FI-supporters to abondon the party for tacticaal reasons again... counting down three.. two.. 
 

Considering the rabidness of their core supporters, some (me) might just not bother calling them out, in order to avoid being scathed. Initiate Operation: Subtlety.

Well considering the response Göran Greider got last time he brought up the subject, I wouldn't blame anyone from abstaining from the task.

But it's intresting to note that the scenario he painted up is manifesting itself in front of our very eyes.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

If those results were to be replicated in the election, what would happen. Would the Alliance stay in power with the support of the Sweden Democrats from outside the government, or might one of the Alliance parties cross the floor to support the centre-left instead? Or might Reinfeldt call another election (he's not very friendly to the Sweden Democrats I believe)?

Political chaos and anarchy if you are to believe the Swedish press.

The current government would be to weak to continue as is. Reinfeldt has had trouble enough these four years governing with two seats short of a majority, governing while being more than 30 seats short of a majority isn't a possible scenario.

Most likely we'll see a left-wing minority government that seeks support across the aisle (Reinfeldt has indicated that he wouldn't vote against Löfvén in a potential confidence vote) or a Social Democratic led government including FP or C.

New elections are basically unheard of in Sweden. Early election has only happened once in last century, and it's nothing any of the parties desire. (At least not this soon after the election)   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So they're that kind of party, let's hope they don't come in.

Yes, I am certainly hoping they don't.

The hate against FI in this thread is just incredible. If there's one thing Europe clearly lacks - or the world for that matter - it's having more parties like FI.

Obviously the fight against inequality is a very important one, but the policies FI is employing doesn't actually do anything to accomplish that goal. Quite the opposite, it creates unnecessary conflict between the genders and cement certain discriminatory tendencies in society.

It's should also be noted that besides a few of the feminist issues, FI is (policy wise) almost an exact replica of V, except it has V's somewhat self-obsessed, but very charismatic, former leader heading it.

My problem with FI, as a right-winger is obviously that they're a extremist Socialist party, whereas left-wingers who dislike them do so because they're a loony fringe party with policies that annihilate centrist voters, while stealing left-wing voters for no other reason than being trendy.

Obviously you are entitled to your own opinion Eric, and as a trendy hip Oslo hipster, I'm sure FI fits you like a hand in a glove, but we're also allowed to dislike them.

Btw, FI is basically the anti-SD party, even though Reinfeldt would very much like to have Moderaterna as the anti-SD party.

Yes, well obviously. Which is another reason people vote for them, without actually knowing anything about their actual policies. I'm personally very much of the opinion however that one extreme doesn't excuse another. Stalin was the most anti-Hitler, didn't make Stalin into a good leader, now did it.

For me they're the most intellectual, clear-sighted people there is, in sharp contrast to many other parts of society.

...

So this is why no one on this forum seems to take you seriously.

I appriciate much of it, I just don't think the ability to sing, play music, paint or write books, give you any greater political insight. I also think that it take a special kind of narcissism to seek the attention of being an artist, and if you're a successful artist you will spend years with few monetary needs, surrounded by yes men and brown noses. Which is never healthy for how ones political views develop (see Tom Clancy and Jan Guillou), no one develop smart thoughts if everyone keep agreeing with you and tell how right you are.

You know, we've had our arguments in the past (especially considering a certain Danish PM that should not be named) but on this I couldn't have said it better myself.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Btw, FI is basically the anti-SD party, even though Reinfeldt would very much like to have Moderaterna as the anti-SD party.

Yes, well obviously. Which is another reason people vote for them, without actually knowing anything about their actual policies. I'm personally very much of the opinion however that one extreme doesn't excuse another. Stalin was the most anti-Hitler, didn't make Stalin into a good leader, now did it.

Churchill was obviously the anti-Hitler. Those not getting that one right obviously don't know much about history. Stalin's policies wasn't anything other than pro-Stalin. That's why he hated all other communists besides himself. That's why he executed so many of his nearest coworkers. Stalin was one of the worst terrorists in the history of humankind, and to claim that Stalin has anything in common with a modern liberal and radical equality party is ludicrous. Stalin would without a doubt have executed Lenin, Marx and Engels too if he got the chance.

1) Communism and Fascism are clearly the two historical antagonists to each other, not Fascism and Conservatism, so don't you come here and try to call me out on my history knowledge.

2) You were clearly missing my point if you thought I were equating FI to Stalin. But you know... since you brought it up, you should probably watch this fun video.    

I might not be to everyone's liking because I'm partisan, but so are at least 90% who write here, you included. I've never taken you very seriously either, as you're obviously a hack for the right wing Alliance.

Oh yes of course... because I obviously never criticize the Alliance on here... and especially not my own party.
 

Also, I wouldn't call myself a conservative either, not sure where you get that impression.

The fact that you disagree with him obviously makes you a Conservative.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Actively considering moving to Canada.

Stephen Harper approves




Anyway, there's still a week and a half to go, so it isn't quite over just yet, but it's looking increasingly unlikely that the centre-left manages to capture a majority next Sunday.

You know considering the circumstances this isn't shaping up to as horrible an election as I suspected it might be. If only FI could end up just bellow 2,5% as well, I would be sort of satisfied.     

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Good news for Team Blue: Today's new Sifo poll shows the bloc gap down to 4.5% thanks to S dropping and FP gaining 2%.

Bad news for Team Blue: The red-greens lead by 11.5% in today's Demoskop polls and by ~9-10% in the latest Ipsos and Novus polls.

There was a YouGov poll today as well, but I don't remember the results - no big changes, anyways.

I don't undertsand this election any longer! Could we please get some constistency in  polling for just a few days.

I'm disappointed that Folkpartiet and Feministiskt Initiativ are that close to Sverigedemokraterna on the chart.

Also, how come Centerpartiet is the second most anti-Sverigedemokraterna party after Miljøpartiet?

Because Centerpartiet is just that awsome!

No but the serious answer is that C has taken a strong liberal position on immigration and other social issues, in complete opposition to the Conservative Sweden Democrats. You have to remeber that the Swedish Centre Party is closer to Venstre than the Norwegian Centre Party.

Folkpartiet are very pro-defense and have a very similar school policy, that's probably why they're falling close to eachother. FI are facists in pink sheep's clothing.  

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Botten Ada, which looks like an attempt to make a Swedish version of fivethirtyeight has the following prediction of the election outcome.

I do believe the prediction becomes more intresting looking at the interval between what they judge the boundries of the possibilities is. (Does that make sense?) 

Left: 6,0%-8,5%
Social Democrats: 28,0%-34,5%
Greens: 7,4%-10,8%

Centre: 4,3%-6,0%
Liberals: 5,3%-7,5%
Moderate: 18,4%-24,6%
Christian Democrats: 4,0%-5,7%

Sweden Democrats: 8,5%-11,6%
Feminist Initiative: 1,3%-3,5%

I do believe that all of the parties, will for certain (with the posible exception of the unreliable SD and FI), fall between these numbers in the end.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Your way of thinking suggests that you will not be affected negatively by chaos. Personally, I predict that I will indeed be affected, so I'd rather not.

Well, as much as the News Papers like to scream about CHAOS, it's not like "chaos" will actually mean there will be any actual chaos, it'll mean more of a gridlock, which at worst means preservation of statues que. Worst case scenario is that Löfvén's government somehow screws up big during the term in some sort of scandal, and Alliance + SD pass a vote of no confidence against them thereby provoking an early election, but that demands quite a bit of screwing up from the left's side.   

So from a centre-right perspective there's really nothing preferable about a left-wing majority as opposed to a hung parliament. A little "chaos" might in fact make the politics a bit more interesting than they've been for the last four years.   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The prospect of Sweden Democrats (or alternatively some weird yuppyish center-rightists) holding the balance of power against a weak left-wing government doesn't strike me as particularly exciting, but that's just me.

If you did find that idea exciting I would worry that someone had either hacked your account, or kidnapped you.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

In instant runoff system they would prefer M over other parties?

In European elections their heartland were rural Götaland and Svealand (suprisingly) not immigrantfull suburbs. I just thought would those people prefer M or C or SAP or even KD (whatever of the less-liberal party is perceived most anti-EU).

In Finland True Finns include former Centre voters (that actually come back and voted SMP in eigthies before that party collapsed), very much SDP in some areas, propably some pro-military KOK voters, but also very many Sleepers.

In 2010, most of their voters were people who would not have turned out for any other party. (According to exit polls)

The ones who simply wouldn't stay home in a runoff would probably distribute quite unevenly. A lot of their support is rural working-class that would go for S over M every day of the week, while others would probably go for one of the burgious parties. It's really hard to say. Hopefully the VALU exit poll will include a shart for second-choice (It has done sometimes in the past)

And the fact that SD is strongest in rural and small town Götaland and Sveland where multiculture consists of a Pizza place is of course well known. Still there are exceptions, SD's strongest precinct in the entire country is the very urban, next-door neighbours to Rosengård, Almgården. But that is sort of a special case.     

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Yeah so this is really happening!

United Minds:

M: 21,0% (+0,1%)
C: 6,5% (+1,9%)
FP: 6,9% (+0,4%)
KD: 5,7%

S: 29,6% (-0,9%)
V: 7,2% (-0,1%)
MP: 7,5% (-1,3%)

SD: 11,1 (-0,3%)
FI: 3,4% (+0,6%)

Alliance: 40,0%
Mushrooms: 44,2%

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

People, lets not get ahead of ourselves. You're all talking like the Alliance were dominating in these polls. Let's not forget that the combined vote share for M+FP+KD+C is still at an all time low. The government had crushed through their floor, and is now climbing up to end up around their catastrophic 1994 result. Sure, if the trend continues unbroken for the last days, it might get interesting, but so far there's really no big change from what polls were showing last week, a hung parliament with a left-wing plurality.
 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

What time (in Stockholm time) does the polls close? Are there websites/webcasts you guys recommend that I want look at to look at the results as they come in ?

I'm not a Sweden expert, but I'd say probably svt.se.

Yep svt.se could work. The election authority's site (in Swedish will publish its result here on election night so it could certainly be worth keeping an eye on.
http://www.val.se/val/val2014/valnatt/R/rike/index.html

Oh and the polls will close at 8 pm Swedish time.

What he said.

SVT will release an exit poll at 8 pm, and start showing reported results around 9 pm, and update as more results come in.

The election authority site will publish every precinct result as soon as they are reporte and update throughout the night as results come in.   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

In last election, the 18-29 age group voted overwhelmingly (by a 10% margin) for the Alliance parties.

No, they didn't. It was the Red-Greens which had a 10% lead among the youth in 2010. Still a big drop in support for the right in that age group, but they were nowhere winning that group four years ago either.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

In last election, the 18-29 age group voted overwhelmingly (by a 10% margin) for the Alliance parties.

No, they didn't. It was the Red-Greens which had a 10% lead among the youth in 2010. Still a big drop in support for the right in that age group, but they were nowhere winning that group four years ago either.

OK, though the article said the Alliance had almost a 10% margin in Ipsos' three last polls before last election.

Yes I read that as well, but the article is incorrect. (not that surprising considering it's DN)

The VALU exit poll from 2010 showed 18-29-year-old went to the left by a 10 point margin. It might be possible the Alliance won youths in 2006, but in 2010 they most certainly didn't.