Ireland 2009

[doktorb]

Libertas really have fouled up all over the place, I cannot find a single result in UK or Ireland which justifies the cost or hype surrounding their campaign.

[doktorb]

Northern Ireland
Seats: 3
Turnout: 43%
Total Valid Poll: 484,572
Quota: 121,144
Incumbents underlined.

	Count 1
Bairbre deBrún (SF)	126,184
Dianne Dodds (DUP)	88,346
Jim Nicholson (UUP)	82,893
Alban Maginness (SDLP)	78,489
Jim Allister (TUV)	66,197
Ian Parsley (Alliance)	26,699
Stephen Agnew (Green)	15,764

Counting began this morning in the North, because one doesn't count votes on the Sabbath there.

deBrún topped the poll, as expected (by everyone except the DUP who spent the entire campaign shouting about how they were the only one's who could stop this happening - as if it really matters).

Agnew and Parsley eliminated on Count 1. (Turns out there isn't a massive dsylexic DUP vote out there.)

Some had suggested the SDLP had a chance at sneaking in between the Unionists to take the second, but clearly that's not on given these numbers.

It'll be deBrún, Dodds and Nicholson.

Hehe - I have just added something similar about Norn Iron in the British thread....

[doktorb]

Even the most insane of transfers won't see Allister elected.... Or else....

[doktorb]

Even the most insane of transfers won't see Allister elected.... Or else....

It should be fairly straight-forward from here.

Nicholson and Maginness should do best from the Alliance/Green transfers.

Then Allister should be eliminated. I suspect the majority going to the UUP and the remainder to the DUP. Nicholson probably therefore to pass Dodds to get the 2nd seat; with Dodds comfortably ahead of Maginness.

From another forum (quoting another forum, I think maybe Slugger's blog)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[doktorb]

"de Brun surplus:

Mick Fealty:  480 to TUV; 2914 DUP; 16325 SDLP; UCU 11392 Allister eliminated... Dodds still well short of the quota.. "

[doktorb]

"de Brun surplus:

Mick Fealty:  480 to TUV; 2914 DUP; 16325 SDLP; UCU 11392 Allister eliminated... Dodds still well short of the quota.. "

Surely that's the Alliance/Green transfers - deBrún's surplus is only 5,040.
Anyway, the SDLP is doing somewhat better than I would've expected if this is the case, but it's nowhere near enough.

Yeah, was gonna come back and amend - seems my Twitter feed wasn't as detailed as it should be !

[doktorb]

Jim Nicholson has been elected second. Now it's down to his surplus (originally from Jim Allister) to decide between the DUP and SDLP.

There are reports of some transfers going SDLP - if they pull this off it will be Lazarus with a quintuple bypass.

[doktorb]

Above quote from another forum