FiveThirtyEight: Rubio first real candidate to enter, Cruz/Paul not serious

[Bull Moose Base]

Paul can become serious, Cruz cannot.

I think it's the opposite. Paul has many problematic deviations from GOP orthodoxy. Cruz doesn't.

As for the 538 piece, it's pretty remarkable to have a Rubio piece and not mention immigration. Cruz's consistent opposition to amnesty gives him something to offer GOP primary voters that the two frontrunners don't. Also, Gingrich doesn't strike me as a relevant precedent for how Cruz would be stopped since Gingrich's electability or lack thereof had little to do with his demise.

[Bull Moose Base]

Unlike Paul or Rubio, the bloc Cruz appeals to is largely the same one Perry and Cain did when they surged to big polling leads 4 years ago. Their losing last time doesn't necessarily mean Cruz will too; he's not vulnerable in the same way they were. His bigger problem is the stronger Walker appeals to the same group.

Right now, the consensus is Bush and Walker are in the top tier by themselves. In the unlikely event Bush fumbles support, Rubio would still have to compete with Walker, the other top-tier candidate, for it.
The more likely scenario is Walker becoming a sole dominant frontrunner. In the more likely event Walker stumbles, a lot of his support remains out of reach for the other top-tier candidate and it's Cruz competing against others who are less conservative than he is.

[Bull Moose Base]

538 isn't wrong. Jonathan Bernstein wrote just yesterday that "no one similar to [Cruz or Paul] has ever come close to a nomination in the modern era."

Paul and Cruz have major differences and where they do, Cruz's views are almost uniformly the more popular among Republicans.

And I don't know how he defines "close to a nomination". Perry had a double-digit national polling lead until his being too liberal on immigration was exposed (not a problem for Cruz) and then "oops" (a gaffe that actually feels less likely to happen to Cruz than to his biggest obstacle to the nomination, Walker). Cain also had similar appeal and a big polling lead until his extramarital affair came out. Not relevant for Cruz. I'd argue Gingrich did come close to the nomination. He won South Carolina and had a comfortable lead in Florida until Romney destroyed him on his ethics problems, which again, doesn't have any relevance for Cruz.

I wouldn't call him top-tier because Walker, who the establishment doesn't mind, is stronger. But past precedent doesn't justify dismissing him. And he's clearly a different animal than Paul.