A year from now, who will already be tipping a 2016 run?

[Bull Moose Base]

Meaning who will act like a presidential candidate/be pushing themselves into the conversation with  schedule, media activity, or language choices etc.?  The way Romney and Pawlenty did in 2009.  Assume an Obama re-election to open up both sides.

I'd peg Martin O'Malley, Mark Warner, Kirsten Gillibrand, Brian Schweitzer and Joe Biden on the D side.  Andrew Cuomo and Hillary Clinton, who will get plenty of speculation without doing anything, strike me as more likely to bide their time.

On the Republican side, I think Santorum, McDonnell, maybe Jindal.  Christie, if he runs for re-election, will presumably be coy until that happens.

[Bull Moose Base]

Christie, if he runs for re-election, will presumably be coy until that happens.

A huge part of the tea lead reading will be about whether Christie does in fact run for reelection.  If he runs for reelection, does he have to try position himself more to the center in order to win, in a way that would preclude a 2016 race for the GOP presidential nomination?  If he doesn't run for reelection, does that mean he's running for president, a la Romney's retirement after one term as MA governor?

If Christie doesn't run, I don't think there's any serious way to interpret it besides a presidential run.  Unless I guess his approval plummets to an unlikely place.  And even if he does run in NJ, yeah, I'd say anything other than straight ahead playing for the center tips interest in a run for president.  Because of the difficult balancing act of a Republican trying to get elected in a Blue State (and maybe against the impressive Cory Booker) while also trying to preserve acceptability to the GOP base for a pres. run, I half-expect Christie won't run again unless he finds himself with strong approvals.  But I also think after the media crush on him this cycle, Christie is probably confident enough in the media and donor interest in him, that he won't feel the need to go to New Hampshire every month of 2013 or similar moves early.  As opposed to someone like Bob McDonnell (unless he's Romney's running mate), who may feel a need to play catch-up or remind people about him.

I also could see if they intend to run, Santorum and Biden, despite have the specific status that on paper or historically would position them as a 2016 frontrunner, making more aggressive hints of a run out of insecurity about the media writing them off, in favor of a trendier alternative.  Biden already has actually.

[Bull Moose Base]

Jindal, McDonnell, O'Malley, and Schweitzer are all term-limited, aren't they?  I guess that means they'll probably run for president, since they'll have nothing else to do.

Just found this from last summer.  Schweitzer doesn't sound like he genuinely lacks interest in running but might be scared off a run by his own gun.

http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/article_89fe08a0-5e1b-5624-916a-f8f7eda57535.html

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[Bull Moose Base]

I doubt Hillary or Biden will run, but if either of them jumps into the race they could probably clear the field (Hillary more so than Biden). They will probably wait to see how the 2016 field takes shape, and if it looks weak either could become a savoir candidate. They can afford to wait until later in the campaign season to jump in, for no other reason than their near universal name rec.

However, a number of candidates will need to enter the field early if they are to ward off Hillary or Biden. O'Malley, Kaine, Cuomo or Warner will need to get out early, and try to claim "front-runner" status. Others, like Hickenlooper, Gillibrand, or Patrick will need to enter fairly early to build up campaign infrastructure and national name recognition. Schweitzer, Feingold, and Warren could conceivably wait until later in the season to jump in, and try to pick off a faltering front runner and claim momentum.

You're right but Billary is smart enough to game it out and, if she wants to run, not wait as long as she can so as to try and clear the field.  On the other hand, she may want to wait longer to see if it's a favorable year for Dems.