2- She'll never make the same mistake she made with Katie Couric again. For one thing, the Palin campaign has done everything they can since then to shut out Katie Couric and CBS-- not because they think Couric is more hostile to them than other media outlets, but because Couric successfully embarassed her. The media has gotten the message: It's okay to be critical of Palin, just don't be too effective at it. Meanwhile, Palin's handlers will be sure to set the ground rules for future interviews and prepare much better.
In a GOP primary, she can get away with largely avoiding non-FOX interviews in a way that she could not in 2008. FOX will push the meme that Palin is coming off sharp and knowledgeable and landing punches against Romney.
Re: Romney. I believe he is intelligent. I haven't seen any evidence he can get himself grassroots support. It's not as easy as it sound.
His flip on abortion + RomneyCare + the pattern of Tea Party-led revolts against frontrunners this year portend trouble for Romney. He can still navigate his way to a win like McCain or like Giuliani, he could be derailed, even by someone other than Palin. I think it's absurd to say he either that he has the nom wrapped up or conversely, can't win. Either way, my money's on a long nomination fight.
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