Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672743555624755200?s=20
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672743562616684545?s=20
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672743569520570371?s=20

The previous Kremlin-Wagner relationship is over

Alas, this relationship is not over. Most likely, the Wagner Group will concentrate all its troops in Belarus and launch an offensive against Kyiv, while the Ukrainians are busy counter-offensive in the South-East. In this way, it will quasi atone for its guilt before Putin in the eyes of the Russian public.

We remains to hope for external obstacles, to which the Russian military is always very sensitive.

An offensive on Kyiv would be suicide, Ukraine well fortified the area since Russia returned and they have a solid army size defending it. On top of that Wagner wouldn’t have enough men as they not only have to take Kyiv but Sumy as well because if they didn’t the troops stationed there would just hit Wagner in the rear

The number of Wagnerites is 50-70 thousand. Plus, they can secretly include Belarusian units in their composition, as supposedly volunteers. Plus, they have the support of the elite units of the Russian army. Plus, they proved to be the most effective part of the Russian troops, so much so that the Ukrainian commanders began to speak of them with respect. I'm not saying they will definitely attack, but brushing off this threat is just blind optimism to the point where it becomes suicidal.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Will Wagner launch a campaign in the north?

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1672960189920624640

Obviously not. Going against the Kyiv defenses would be suicide, particularly with their attrition in Bakhmut and with the MoD cutting off Wagner's best recruiting methods. And speaking of the Ministry of Defense, if they were shorting Wagner on ammunition and weaponry before they're definitely not going to be more generous to them now.

Lol, how stubbornly people believe information coming from a notorious bullsh-generator (Prigozhin) and which has already been refuted by many sources independent of each other.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I mean, Prigozhin himself also isn't ethnic Russian (he is a jew)

Prigozhin's Jewish ancestry is very remote and solely on his father's side. His mother's family is ethnically Russian.

Yes. And there is also this strange thing, where Prigozhin is Bobrov, and someone else has his last name. Obviously it's just a fake passport, but what if...?

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1672676852656226305?t=ojpi-hW0N5zSbi2WRXsWeQ...

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

An interesting paragraph:

"For months now, elements of the FSB security service have been talking with exiled opposition groups, according to a well-placed dissident, who asked not to be named. That in turn has prompted some hopes that the siloviki [“strongman” security officials] and Russian opposition groups can come to some arrangement for a more orderly end to Putinism — with both groups united in the fear of ultranationalists seizing control and waging war even more ferociously and recklessly in Ukraine."

It would be strange if the FSB did not shepherd these groups.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Am curious to see if they end up using these T-55/54 tanks for infantry support as well. They are going to get smoked, if so. Last I read, Russia was using these museum pieces as improvised artillery due to heavy losses of actual artillery systems and high shell expenditure rates.

They also use that as car bombs.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Meanwhile, regardless of the Israeli sideshow, Tatianna Stanovaya, who is a bit of a Russian guru, not to mention having a significantly increased demand from news outlets for her takes, has a new Tweet out.

Unlike many others, she actually chooses to write on Twitter, more in the style of a basic 2 1/2 page double spaced 100/200 level college course, in this case consisting of (5) paragraphs, each of which contain (3)-(4) sentences.

Unfortunately the nature of such a style of Twitter, is that you will likely need to click on the link in order to read the full text.

Paragraph (3) takes us more into the "meat" of the matter:

I don’t expect a purge in the style of Stalin; that's not Putin's approach. His perspective splits individuals into heroes, traitors (who face severe consequences), or lost souls who may be pardoned if they repent in time. Arrests are possible within this framework, but figures like Surovikin are less likely to be targeted. The challenge here is that Putin isn't the same as before, and there are influential figures with their own agendas, like Sergei Shoigu, who may be interested in eliminating internal opposition. So final fate of Surovikin is unclear.

Paragraph (4) enhances the analysis further:

Prigozhin’s mutiny has underscored a potentially newer quality of the regime, which is not entirely new but is now more apparent. If Putin used to control the players, the power dynamics are now shifting. Given Putin's detachment and distorted view of reality, the players are starting to manipulate Putin. While I was always very reluctant to perceive Putin as being manipulated, the effects of his 23-year reign, his ageing, and the pressures of war could be leading to this shift. Prigozhin's struggle to reach the president and Shoigu's attempt to tackle the Wagner issue are the outcomes of Putin's inaction. This mutiny was so shocking that the regime appeared to many as near to collapse, which significantly undermines Putin’s ability to secure control in the eyes of the political class.

Paragraph (5) starts to move a little more towards the future, which is obviously more prone to pitfalls, than a rigorous examination of past historical events, let alone immediate events where the consequences and implications are far from clear:

Lastly, we're now witnessing the initial signs of an anti-elite trend in society. This shouldn't be confused with anti-Putin or anti-war sentiments. People are becoming increasingly frustrated with an inefficient and bloated elite, either scoffing at them or expressing silent indignation. Although this trend may not have immediate political implications, it may pose potentially a significant challenge later.

https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/1674422450585731074?s=20

"Tatyana Stanovaya opens her eyes", chapter one.

Damn, Putin has always been a dependent figure. At least Patrushev stands behind him, and in general, Putin has a symbiosis with the deep state. Respect for Stanovaya, if only for the fact that she was able to understand this at least someday, while most analysts still continue to consider Putin the almighty Beelzebub.

As for anti-elite sentiments in society, its have not faded at all since Soviet times. They are post-Marxists, hatred of the Soviet placards' capitalists is their eternal idea fix.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

If someone want to criticize some country for hindering assistance to Ukraine, there is no better candidate in the world for this than Orban's Hungary.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

If someone want to criticize some country for hindering assistance to Ukraine, there is no better candidate in the world for this than Orban's Hungary.

Hungry doesn’t receive foreign aid from the US.

Israel does and more so than any other country.

I think you are targeting Israel. Israel receives US aid because it is being bombarded with rockets just as constantly as Ukraine. Hungary has peace and tranquility.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Personally, I don't see Putin agreeing to a ceasefire even if he lost all Russian occupied territory that was under Ukrainian control before February 24, 2022.

"In agreeing not to take Crimea by force, Kyiv would then demand that Russia accept whatever security guarantees Ukraine can secure from the West, said Ukrainian officials."

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1674925111596515328?s=20

Putin has agreed to a ceasefire in the past, but it has always been a hoax, Russian troops have continued to fire without change. Another thing is that Putin can really stop the war, but only after he is sure that his mad skinheads will not be able to kill him for it.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Using a limited-supply, precision-strike missile to hit a restaurant full of people is below even what I expected of people taking orders from Putin.

You're lucky you don't watch Russian comments in "ZOV" Telegram channels.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Ramzan Kadyrov is the puppet of the Chinese. Literally.

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1674742616254971905

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Naturally, with the most rough assumption, it is easy and convenient to just smear a confident straight line, but in reality there are no such straight lines of GDP growth, especially over such a large interval.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

The West is afraid of Russian nuclear weapons. Unfortunately, if Putin frames an unprovoked nuclear attack through the ZNPP explosion or through nuclear weapons of Belarus as an alleged act of a terrorist organization absolutely independent from the Kremlin, suchlike the allegedly disbanded Wagner, the West will grasp at this straw, just not to enter into a straight war against Russia.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I don't really want to rag on Poland too much since they have been extremely helpful to Ukraine in both pressing other countries to donate and also donating huge numbers of tanks and other equipment themselves, but they have rather unambiguously been using parts of this war to benefit themselves, even when it hurts Ukraine's war effort (such as in this case).

https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1675512043212816389

Poles are notorious for jacking up prices. They just can't give up their habits.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/putin-invade-moon-20million-rocket-30339472

"Putin set to invade the moon with £20million rocket heading for the Lunar South Pole"

And this sounds like an Iron Sky plot.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1676617671310295041?s=20

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

If true, this runs counter to the vast majority of "informed experts" who see a post mutiny purge of the Russian military as a very bad idea, and more likely to weaken Putin domestically and not strengthen him.

Hell, "The Chef" was able to waltz into Saint Petersburg just the other day and pick up his guns and Millions in cash and gold bars and waltz away with no harm done.

Granted if I were him, I would have had somebody else touch the guns and money with gloves and PPE, so as to not contact some weird chemical poisoning.

The words of Russian politicians easily deceive those who do not know how things are done in Russia. If Putin really wanted to take revenge on Prigeau, Prigeau will not have been able to take his property so easily, but will have died of a "heart attack" as a result of turning into a chop long before the "mutiny". Like Mikhail Lesin, for example. The fact that Prigeau easily does whatever he needs, and that the confiscated buses full of money were also returned to him, shows that in reality there is no conflict between Putin and Prigeau.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

This is a really good article. My hope is that maybe these could blow up some of the mines in the area. It seems like the minefields are really making this counteroffensive slow going because or the huge risk walking through them.

The Ukrainian army has special demining vehicles. The question is their number.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukrainian-president-volodymyr-zelenskyy-mauls-bulgarian-president-rumen-radev-over-opposition-to-arming-ukraine/

"Zelenskyy mauls Bulgarian president over his opposition to arming Ukraine"

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy savaged his Bulgarian counterpart Rumen Radev in a bruising televised exchange in Sofia on Thursday, in which he opened up with both barrels against Radev’s opposition to arming Ukraine.

More making friends and influencing people in action.  

If the President of Bulgaria does not want to give arms, accept it for now and talk about what Bulgaria can do to help Ukraine's war effort that does not cross his red lines.  Beating him up publically and embarrassing him in his own country just does not sound like a smart way to get the most out of the relationship.

I heard this dialogue, Zelensky's speech was actually as soft and respectful as possible. I was amazed at how balanced Zelensky is, because few people could remain calm after hearing the wild nonsense in Putin's language that the President of Bulgaria blurted out. If the president of Bulgaria was outraged just by the fact that he was caught having his tongue in Putin's ass, let him talk to his conscience in private, because the main person in Bulgaria is not him, but the prime minister, and the prime minister of Bulgaria is on excellent terms with Ukraine.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/07/europe/turkey-ukraine-nato-membership-intl/index.html

Turkiye supports Ukraine joining NATO. I love to see this! Honestly I think Turkiye gets a bad rap from the west sometimes in regards to NATO. They’re transactional but stand by the alliance. Hungary is the problematic one

Ukraine in NATO betters the strategic situation for Turkey. If Ukraine has reclaimed Crimea, then it's even better.

I think that Erdogan, being a pan-Turkicist to some degree also has interest in the wellbeing of the Crimean Tatars. Ukraine treats them well and has even paved the way for returning Tatar names to the cities under the decommunization laws if they are liberated. Weakening Russia further can also help Turkiye expand influence to the central Asian Turkic countries as well as to the Turkic regions in the RF which have been mistreated by Russians such as Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, Sakha, as well as the Karachay and Balkar in the north Caucasus.

I think that in general, Türkiye is a much better flagship for the Turkic peoples than the PRC, because the Chinese have always oppressed and continue to oppress the Chinese Turks even more.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

We haven't seen Woody Woodpecker around for awhile, let alone Bakhmut Bob, but Phil is on the skeptical side that UKR would actually fight street by street to retake Bakhmut.

There is much more and obviously a better way to "skin a cat" (Never quite understood that expression in popular vernacular from historical context, but still), as opposed to the mass street by street storming of Bakhmut by Wagners and regular Russians with an estimated 20k of theirs KIA/WIA.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1677389864042373141?s=20

Given that the Russians are fighting on the principle of "Carthago delenda est", Bakhmut will really become a trap for them, because they destroyed the buildings in which they could hide.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Because the Russians used cluster bombs against peaceful cities and towns. Cluster bombs are still a problem, as unexploded shells becomes as dangerous to residents as mines, but it's not hard to guess that this problem reaches the scale of a war crime if these shells are scattered among apartment buildings.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Another interesting fact is that in Ukraine and Russia the use of phosphorus munitions is considered a war crime, although in fact its are not prohibited. And I saw footage of how Russia, despite this perception, used its against Azovstal and Bakhmut.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Gen. Milley says Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if Russia decides to invade Ukraine
February 5, 2022 8:37pm EST
FOX NEWS

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

For anybody confused about what "Storm-Z" is, it's basically the Russian military equivalent of draining Russian prisons to through human waves into the front lines, which was a technique they ripped off from Wagner.

These are basically the current offensive "shock troops" of the glorious Russian military.

Read them, hear them and weep. This is clearly not a case where you "reap what you sow", considering a lot of Russian convicts are actually in the gulags for relatively minor crimes such as small scale drug dealing or petty theft.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1678367921989353472?s=20

Convicts from Storm Z units are asking the Kremlin Ripper to stop sending them into "massacres", appealing to his human feelings I suppose, which is ironic given that he gave a go for convicts to be utilised on the frontlines.

They say they're being purposefully "murdered" with own artillery shelling. Their company lost 75% of its personnel.

Those with wounds are allowed two days to heal before sending them back.

The convicts say they came to "fight fascism", but turns out that it is their command who are fascists.

@wartranslated

https://twitter.com/Rezerv8/status/1672891612328869888
A group of mercenaries from PMC "Storm Z", who joined Wagner during the "riot", recorded a video in which they expressed their disappointment with Prigeau and they called him шерстюга. Шерсть (wool) means in Fenia of a person who goes against the Thieves' law, betrays his people and arranges chaos.

In a theory, this would lead to the fact that all the Thieves would turn against Prigeau and, after the Thieves' court, he shall most likely be killed. But knowing how things work in the Russian World, it's possible to say with certainty that this PMC will be punished instead of Prigeau.

QED.