The Solid South was really bad for Southern presidential politics

[Mechaman]

What makes you think Wilson couldnt have won based in Virginia? He was perceived as a Southerner during the campaign. Being from NJ didnt change that.

He would have had to spend  fighting Underwood for southern support, and would probably have been enough weaker in the north (having been President of Princeton and Governor of NJ gave him a broader appeal) for Champ Clark to win the nomination.

Had he been nominated, it probably wouldn't have mattered in November. He would get the core Democratic vote, which in 1912 is all he would have needed.

Emphasis:

[Mechaman]

Emphasis:

Not sure I uinderstand what the map signifies.

If it's supposed to be a situation where the Republicans managed to stay united in 1912, then it can't happen without massive changes well before Wilson becomes a candidate. If the fact of his running from Virginia rather than NJ  has not changed anything on the Republican side (and there's no obvious reason why it should have) the electoral map of 1912 won't look anything like that, and in fact probably won't differ much from OTL's, save that one or two New England States might go to Taft instead of Wilson.  

Sorry, should've clarified earlier.

This was a map of the election of Wilson vs. every possible Taft/Roosevelt vote.  And yes, I know the map would look different from this, as Wilson would have to change his campaign style.

I was agreeing with you about his campaign in 1912.  He only needed to appeal to the Democratic base.  If it weren't for Roosevelt running he would've had to run a bit more of a wide appeal race (abelt with some help from Bryan).  That is what the map was emphasizing.

Whether or not Wilson would've won Maryland, West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, and Nevada is beside the point.

[Mechaman]

Emphasis:

Not sure I uinderstand what the map signifies.

If it's supposed to be a situation where the Republicans managed to stay united in 1912, then it can't happen without massive changes well before Wilson becomes a candidate. If the fact of his running from Virginia rather than NJ  has not changed anything on the Republican side (and there's no obvious reason why it should have) the electoral map of 1912 won't look anything like that, and in fact probably won't differ much from OTL's, save that one or two New England States might go to Taft instead of Wilson.  

Sorry, should've clarified earlier.

This was a map of the election minus Roosevelt.  And yes, I know the map would look different from this, as Wilson would have to change his campaign style.

I was agreeing with you about his campaign in 1912.  He only needed to appeal to the Democratic base.  If it weren't for Roosevelt running he would've had to run a bit more of a wide appeal race (abelt with some help from Bryan).  That is what the map was emphasizing.

Whether or not Wilson would've won Maryland, West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, and Nevada is beside the point.

I knew this map would be problematic and a bunch of detail obsessed posters would go apesh*t over the fact that I was too mathematical enough and didn't put "what if" thinkery into it.

LOok, again at the bolded.  I do acknowledge, for the second time, that the map would look different.  I do.  I've said that multiple times already.

The fact that Wilson's pv was a little over 40% should be an indication of how much of his vote were typical Democratic voters.  THAT WAS MY POINT, NOT HEY HEY THIS IS HOW THE ELECTION WOULD LOOK LIKE IF ROOSEVELT DIDN'T RUN!

This map shows the states where Wilson beat both Roosevelt and Taft COMBINED.  In other words, how much the situation of 1912 benefitted him.

This isn't by any means a "what-if" map, but rather a statement of the Democratic base circa 1912.

I've done hypotheticals for 1912 ALL THE FREAKING TIME and I have a good idea of how it would turn out.  THIS ISN'T ONE OF THOSE MAPS!

Okay?