With the polarization we have experienced over the last few cycles, I expect a significant dealignment in 2016, especially if someone like Brian Schweitzer is the D Nominee.
The red state/blue state divide will probably remain intact, but I think the Republican will improve a lot in the blue states while the Democratic will improve in the red states -like actually winning a county in Oklahoma!
If a guy like Brian Schweitzer got the Democratic nominee, you can bet your ass a lot more than one county in Oklahoma would swing Democratic. Sure, he wouldn't win the state, but I could easily see a Schweitzer like Democrat getting about 42% of the popular vote and winning a majority of counties in "Little Dixie".
I mean, Schweitzer is probably more pro-gun than any likely GOP nominee in 2016......
