What percent of the vote would Obama have sans the financial crisis?

[Mechaman]

I think he would have prevailed with a 3-4 margin. He would have lost IN and NC, probably FL and maybe OH.

^^^^^^
This.

Without a financial crisis I don't see usually Republican states like Indiana and North Carolina going near Obama.  However public perception of Bush not being that high I could still see Obama winning Ohio.  Florida would be a tossup.  States like Virginia, Nevada, and Colorado would've still voted Dem due to the demographics of the Obama Coalition.

[Mechaman]

… 52.68%.

If Obama was bound to do that good (considering as you keep pointing out that he won 52.87% of the popular vote IRL) without a financial crisis why the hell would he do only .2% better if there was one?

A last minute gaffe by an opponent might give one .2% more of the popular vote come election date.  A financial crisis that happened a month before election?  A bit more I think.

For the record I see Obama winning around 50.8-51.2% of the vote without a crisis.