Obama/Romney starts here

[5280]

50% = safe, 30% lean, 0% = toss up

[5280]

This is a race involving an unpopular incumbent (his approval rating is ten points or more lower than Carter's in January 1980), and the Republican candidate has nothing to do with George W. Bush or Washington this time (much like the 1980 race and Republican ticket had nothing to do with Nixon), so it is way too early to say much of anything other than the following:

Obama - 37
Romney - 170
Up in the Air - 331

In other words, Romney only needs 100 out of 331 (or, put another way, an electoral batting average of .302 versus Obama's required electoral batting average of .704)...

That's not giving Obama not enough credit for your map, but then again the Democrats on the forum give Obama too much credit based on their maps.

[5280]

If Romney nominated Martinez for VP, then expect CO to be lean Romney, along with Nevada and Florida. NM would be toss-up.

[5280]

Your map is too generous for Obama, given that is based on if elections were held today.  Factors to look at, unemployed hovering around 8-10% from now until November 2012, the crisis in Europe with their debt, Iran's nuclear weapons, and gas prices could be $4-$5 a gallon this summer.   Along with Obama axing the Keystone pipeline permit.