Calculating presidential election trends by midterm performance

[WalterWhite]

Has anyone tried this? For my home state of Georgia, I calculated the PVI of the two 2022 marquee races (Gov and Sen) individually relative to the national result, and then averaged the two. (I used the Senate result in the general election for consistency)

National Senate Result: R +.1
Georgia Senate Result: D + .9
Georgia Sen PVI: D+1

National Gov Result: D +.24
Georgia Gov Result: R + 7.5
Georgia Gov PVI: R + 7.74

Average of GA Gov and GA Sen PVI: R+3.37

In the 2020 election, Georgia was 4.27 to the right of the national popular vote, so the 2022 midterms results would suggest a modest leftward swing.



What do you guys think of this as a way to estimate state trends between presidential elections?

I would account for incumbency bias. Warnock (D) is an incumbent. Based on Oklahoma Senate results in 2022, incumbents did 5.7% better than non-incumbents. For Georgia specifically, I would subtract 5.7% from the Democratic margin to get a more accurate indication of where Georgia leans.

[WalterWhite]

Has anyone tried this? For my home state of Georgia, I calculated the PVI of the two 2022 marquee races (Gov and Sen) individually relative to the national result, and then averaged the two. (I used the Senate result in the general election for consistency)

National Senate Result: R +.1
Georgia Senate Result: D + .9
Georgia Sen PVI: D+1

National Gov Result: D +.24
Georgia Gov Result: R + 7.5
Georgia Gov PVI: R + 7.74

Average of GA Gov and GA Sen PVI: R+3.37

In the 2020 election, Georgia was 4.27 to the right of the national popular vote, so the 2022 midterms results would suggest a modest leftward swing.



What do you guys think of this as a way to estimate state trends between presidential elections?

I would account for incumbency bias. Warnock (D) is an incumbent. Based on Oklahoma Senate results in 2022, incumbents did 5.7% better than non-incumbents. For Georgia specifically, I would subtract 5.7% from the Democratic margin to get a more accurate indication of where Georgia leans.

Should you do the same for incumbent governors?

I would just use Senate election results, not gubernatorial election results. Senate elections are much more influenced by partisanship than gubernatorial elections are.

[WalterWhite]

Has anyone tried this? For my home state of Georgia, I calculated the PVI of the two 2022 marquee races (Gov and Sen) individually relative to the national result, and then averaged the two. (I used the Senate result in the general election for consistency)

National Senate Result: R +.1
Georgia Senate Result: D + .9
Georgia Sen PVI: D+1

National Gov Result: D +.24
Georgia Gov Result: R + 7.5
Georgia Gov PVI: R + 7.74

Average of GA Gov and GA Sen PVI: R+3.37

In the 2020 election, Georgia was 4.27 to the right of the national popular vote, so the 2022 midterms results would suggest a modest leftward swing.



What do you guys think of this as a way to estimate state trends between presidential elections?

I would account for incumbency bias. Warnock (D) is an incumbent. Based on Oklahoma Senate results in 2022, incumbents did 5.7% better than non-incumbents. For Georgia specifically, I would subtract 5.7% from the Democratic margin to get a more accurate indication of where Georgia leans.

Should you do the same for incumbent governors?

I would just use Senate election results, not gubernatorial election results. Senate elections are much more influenced by partisanship than gubernatorial elections are.

Agreed on that point, but I don’t think you can accurately and fairly factor in incumbency when determining partisanship. That Oklahoma number is basically an assumption that shouldn’t be extrapolated to other races.

Kinda seems like you’re just trying to minimize Warnock’s win last year but not Kemp’s

I forgot to mention I would have also accounted for the fact that 2022 was an R+2.8% environment. To calculate Georgia's PVI based on Senate races, I would have taken Warnock's win (D+2.8%), subtracted the incumbency advantage (D+5.7%), and subtracted the NPV (R+2.8%). This gives an R+0.1% PVI for Georgia.