ASSUMING A D+3.2 NATIONAL ENVIRONMENT FOR POTUS:
- Alaska (3): Trump +10.3
- Iowa (6): Trump +5.0
- Ohio (17): Trump +4.7
- Maine 2nd CD (1): Trump +6.6
- Texas (40): Trump +1.9
- Florida (30): Trump +4.7
- North Carolina (16): Biden +0.1
- Georgia (16): Biden +0.8
- Arizona (11): Biden +2.1
- Wisconsin (10): Biden +5.0
- Pennsylvania (19): Biden +5.4
- Nevada (6): Biden +1.1
- Michigan (15): Biden +5.1
- Nebraska 2nd CD (1): Biden +5.7
- Minnesota (10): Biden +9.2
- New Hampshire (4): Biden +7.8
- Maine (2 at-large EVs): Biden +8.8
- Virginia (13): Biden +9.6
- New Mexico (5): Biden +11.0
- Colorado (10): Biden +13.6
- New Jersey (14): Biden +15.5
- Oregon (8 ): Biden +15.0
- Illinois (19): Biden +15.7
- Delaware (3): Biden +18.5
- Washington state (12): Biden +16.4
Where is Trump gaining?
California, New York, Illinois, Washington, Oregon, and Florida