Could a Republican make Vermont and/or the Black Belt competitive?

[WalterWhite]

In this current iteration of the Republican Party, no

However, Democrats should not take these regions for granted. One of the biggest demographic divides in American politics is the urban-rural divide; urban areas vote Democratic, and rural areas vote Republican. However, Democrats are still dominant in some rural areas across the United States.

Vermont/Western Massachusetts is a part of the country that, demographically speaking, SHOULD be Republican territory; this part of the country is mostly rural. However, Democrats dominate here; Democrats have won western MA ever since 1988 and Vermont since 1992. The Black Belt is another part of the country that, despite being heavily rural, votes overwhelmingly Democratic.

Obviously, there are reasons these areas vote the way they do. Vermont and Western MA are very liberal, and the Black Belt has a high African-American population; these groups generally speaking vote Democratic in presidential elections.

However, in the past, other rural regions of the country were thought of as being similarly Democratic. As recently as 2000, rural Southwest Pennsylvania was a Democratic stronghold; now it is a Republican stronghold. Southern West Virginia was also considered a Democratic stronghold at that time; now the opposite is true. Rural Eastern Iowa was considered Democratic territory until 2012; now these rural counties vote overwhelmingly Republican. Until 2020, the Rio Grande Valley in Texas was considered a Democratic stronghold; Trump flipped Zapata County for the first time in about 100 years and made Duval and Starr Counties competitive. These regions had their reasons for voting Democratic: the counties in Pennsylvania and West Virginia had large numbers of blue-collar workers; the counties in Iowa had large numbers of farmers; the counties in Texas had large numbers of Hispanics. However, despite these groups generally voting Democratic, the increase in Republican support amongst rural voters brought these counties into the GOP column.

Who is to say that Vermont and the Black Belt are not on the chopping block for the Republican Party? There might be a Republican candidate who does so strongly amongst rural voters that they win/reduce the margin in these regions. In the current iteration of the GOP, there is not. However, who is to say that such a candidate will not come along in the future?

[WalterWhite]

Republicans will eventually appeal to black voters (particularly rural black voters) based upon a shared cultural conservatism when racial appeals will no longer avail them as their white base in the state gradually shrinks.  And logically, Mississippi will be the first state in which that will happen which I think should be later this decade as the baby boomers exit the stage...  

The GOP would also have to shift its economic message for that, though. African-Americans started voting for the Democrats BECAUSE OF the New Deal.