Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[WalterWhite]

With only a few minutes until the polls close in Wisconsin, results for the state's Supreme Court election will be coming shortly. With a lack of polling regarding the race, it has been difficult to make a determination as to which candidate, Janet Protasiewicz (liberal) or Daniel Kelly (conservative), is the favorite.

The primary suggested a race that was slightly in favor for the liberal Janet Protasiewicz (because liberal candidates got more votes than conservative candidates); but this is a general election, meaning significantly higher turnout, and this is still an anti-Biden national environment, meaning conservatives have an edge nationwide.

Who will win? Will it be the liberal Janet Protasiewicz or the conservative Daniel Kelly? That is what the results tonight will show. HERE WE GO!

[WalterWhite]

It is officially 9:00 PM EDT, so the polls have closed everywhere in Wisconsin. We should expect returns very shortly!

[WalterWhite]

Part of me wishes there were 0% turnout so that all the political pundits could be trolled. 

[WalterWhite]

Quick question: Would this make you vote for or against Janet Protasiewicz?

[WalterWhite]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1643419675273953280?s=20

That sounds like good news for Janet Protasiewicz. To have 90% of the turnout of the Senate election in an off-year in a heavily Democratic-leaning county sounds good for Janet Protasiewicz.

[WalterWhite]

Woah.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1643420556543557633?s=20

For reference, this county voted for Ron Johnson by 25% in 2022.

[WalterWhite]

These are horrifically bad results of Kelly in Waukesha.

From what PART of the county are these votes coming?

[WalterWhite]

Please keep in mind that Wisconsin Supreme Court Elections often have wide margins. In 2020, for instance, the liberal Jill Karofsky defeated the conservative Daniel Kelly by 10.5%.

[WalterWhite]

I want the Bush coalition back . The coalition where we didn’t need to win WI/MI/PA to get to 270 .

LOL that's long gone. VA, NM, NV, and CO are not coming back

What makes you say Nevada is a lost cause for Republicans? It only voted for Biden by 2%, and it only voted for Masto by 1%.

[WalterWhite]

What will the final margin be? Right now Jodi is leading by 16%.

[WalterWhite]

By the way, Protasiewicz won Kenosha by 8. Looks like the ghosts of 2020 have finally been dispelled there.

It seems like it is still voting to the right of Wisconsin as a whole, though.

[WalterWhite]

Also, the biggest misconception/lie about the 2016 election is that Trump was the only Republican who could have won the Rust Belt/Upper Midwest states. This rewriting of history (to which the media contributed in a shameless manner) only exacerbated the devotion to Trump as a political figure and made Republicans double down on their worst elements, missing the forest (Trump's consistently absymal favorability ratings) for the trees (fabricated propaganda about Trump's "unique strengths" as a candidate).

The truth is that Republicans never needed Trump to win the 2016 election. In fact, he was one of the very few Republicans capable of losing it (and nearly did).

But Trump WAS the only Republican who could turn New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia from competitive states into solidly Democratic states.

[WalterWhite]

This is not a particularly impressive performance for Wisconsin Democrats. The WISC in 2020 was won by a similar margin by Wisconsin Democrats.

[WalterWhite]

This is not a particularly impressive performance for Wisconsin Democrats. The WISC in 2020 was won by a similar margin by Wisconsin Democrats.

This one was held at the same time as the Democratic Presidential primary iirc, and technically in a Trump "off"year. This one is during a Biden off-year. I think it's pretty impressive.

I suppose. 2020's election was held in a D+3% national environment, but this one was held in an R+3% national environment. Wisconsin Democrats improved their margin by 1%. Overall, that is a 7% swing in favor of Wisconsin Democrats compared to the national environment.

[WalterWhite]

I keep saying this that when Johnson isn't on the ballot RS underpolls that's why they got lucky because it's a midterm that Johnson won he is Doomed in 28 in a Prez cycle Tammy Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson in 2012 that proves my point

Johnson beat Feingold in 2016 even though it was a presidential year, and Feingold was favored to win.