2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Vepres]

Corzine narrowing gap:

Christie: 51%
Corzine: 42%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1362

However, Christie is still above 50%, and that's more important.

[Vepres]

You have no idea clue about the power of presence.  If people are out campaigning for a canidate they create interest  and make people think positively about the campaign.  Its an easily noticeable social dynamic.     

I've run and managed political campaigns before.  I know how useless college labor generally is.

But do you know how useless college generally is?

Except, of course, you won't have the knowledge to get a decent job

[Vepres]

Here's a rather crude, but accurate way to assess the New Jersy Gubenatorial election.

Imagine the voters as a rather plain girl who is going to a dance on Friday night with her girl friends.

She makes a bet for more money than she can afford that she will make it with a guy that night.

Only three guys show any significant interest in her.

One has money, a beard, and several types of VD.

A second is fat, dull and plain himself.

A third is a poor little nerd who lives with his mommy and rides a bike.

She really doesn't want any of them, but cannot afford to lose the bet.

So, guess who she (reluctantly) goes to bed with?

The fat, dull, plain guy, duh!

[Vepres]

Interesting analysis of the recent trends

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2009/10/state-of-race-new-jersey-101309.html

[Vepres]

Why are all Christie supporters always saying that Daggett is so not at 13% when every poll has him in that general area?

The theory is that a lot of Daggett support is just coming from people on the phone who want to register their disapproval with Corzine and Christie but voting for Daggett is the only method they're given. Come election time these voters may vote for another another minor candidate or just simply stay home, thus severely diluting Daggett's eventual total.

Additionally, if an independent doesn't seem to have a chance of winning, his numbers will probably drop near election day, and he'll under perform at the polls because people don't want to vote for somebody who doesn't have a chance.

[Vepres]

I'll just throw my 2 cents in here:

Corzine appears to be surging. If one looks at pollster.com, you can see a clear dive in support for Christie and a slight uptick for Corzine. Now, if this continues, Corzine will pull an upset victory with a victory margin of 3 to 5 points. However, Daggett, the wild card in this race, may decide who wins. If he continues to surge through election day, Corzine will win, if he begins to stagnate and drop, Christie wins.

Now, I am by no means an expert on New Jersey politics, but I would think that Daggett's support comes from the New York suburbs, which in an election like this, hurts the Republican. However, as election day nears, voters will look a Corzine and say, "do we really want him to run the state another four years?" This will cause Daggett to under perform on election day, I suspect he'll only get 5-7% max. These voters will come from the Philadelphia and NY suburbs, particularly from the former.

They will be white, non-union, middle-class workers, who would be dissatisfied with Corzine enough to vote for Christie, even if they are Democrats.

I say Christie wins by 3-5%, most of which comes from Daggett supports voting against Corzine. I suspect Christie will have a strong performance in the southern portion of the state.

Just my 2 cents.

[Vepres]

You beat me by a second, Vepres!

The universe is on my side!

[Vepres]

Yeah, undecideds tend to have an anti-incumbent bent.

[Vepres]

pollster average

The pollster.com average shows Christie and Corzine to be tied:
Corzine: 39.9%
Christie: 39.8%
Daggett: 15.3%

[Vepres]

RCP average has it at Corzine +0.2. Very exciting race to say the least.

[Vepres]

My gut feeling is that Daggett will lose at least 2% of his support to Christie, probably far more. The undecideds will probably break for Christie as well considering undecideds usually have an anti-incumbent bias.

[Vepres]

Christie is bound to be an incredibly unpopular governor, I'd imagine.

I doubt he could do worse than Corzine

I was right in predicting Daggett would bleed lots of votes to Christie on election day

[Vepres]

The national GOP should take a page from his book.