BPS Latino voters in AZ, CA, NV - Biden +20, +22, +15

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

My gut feeling (not backed up by any data) is that this is consistent with Biden winning AZ but losing NV.

According to exit polls from 2020, Biden won Arizona Latinos by 24 points. If he's "only" leading with them by 20 this time, he needs to make a sizable improvement with white voters. If he doesn't, he's not winning Arizona.

I think Biden will improve quite a lot with white suburbanites in Arizona.
I do think he'll probably win Arizona but lose Nevada.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

Uh no it doesn't???

There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

Uh no it doesn't???

There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.

Duh, yes it does. Rarely doesn't anyone lingering in the 30s perform much better against a candidate who is over 50%. California statewide polling is a good example of this.

Undecideds do not all go one way lmao.
Otherwise I could say "look Biden is only at 44% in Michigan, he's gonna lose it by double digits!"

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

Uh no it doesn't???

There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.

Duh, yes it does. Rarely doesn't anyone lingering in the 30s perform much better against a candidate who is over 50%. California statewide polling is a good example of this.

Undecideds do not all go one way lmao.
Otherwise I could say "look Biden is only at 44% in Michigan, he's gonna lose it by double digits!"

You can’t debate people who have lost touch with reality. And most people on Atlas have lost touch with reality. They are stuck in their bubble.

I'm one of the few people here who actually got the 2022 midterm election right and never bought into those predictions of Republicans winning 40+ seats in the House. You probably don't even think Trump lost in 2020 so who really is out of touch with reality?

What was your prediction for the Wisconsin margin in 2020?
That would prove whether you just always predict democrats overperform or if you actually are good at predictions.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

Uh no it doesn't???

There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.

Duh, yes it does. Rarely doesn't anyone lingering in the 30s perform much better against a candidate who is over 50%. California statewide polling is a good example of this.

Undecideds do not all go one way lmao.
Otherwise I could say "look Biden is only at 44% in Michigan, he's gonna lose it by double digits!"

In some cases they do break heavily toward one candidate. Stuck in the low 30s the best Trump could do is probably scrape 40%. But of course you all think he's winning California because Biden hasn't cracked 60% in any polling there so talking to Trump supporters is like talking to a brick wall. DC is on the table for you people.

You do realize my point also goes against people wo think Biden will lose California.
My argument is that undecideds never break all one way, something that is common sense.