Post your BOLD takes for the 2022 midterms

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

- Perdue wins
- Colorado is really close even with Hanks as the nominee
- Oz wins PA by over 5%

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

- Much larger Republican majority in House than expected, over 260 seats.
- Biden announces after the midterms he is not going to run in 2024.
- The Senate is not as great for Republicans as they thought it was going to be as several Democratic senators hold on.

These are some really bold takes, very interesting.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Democrats will do far better than expected.

-Limiting the House losses to 25 seats or less (I'm least confident on this)
-They will break even, possibly gaining a governorship or two
-They will break even or possibly gain a Senate seat or two; the map isn't that friendly to Republicans based upon the seats up this year.

Trump and the GOP inward split that he's creating is going to haunt the party in November.  He's goingt to drag some candidates down.

We'll see

You will be very disappointed.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

-Republicans flip at least one Biden +15 or higher seat
-Said seat is a predominately suburban seat due to 2016-20 trends that favored the Democrats stalling and slightly reversing.

I’m just curious more as to why the general sentiment seems to be affluent white suburban areas will have the biggest rightwards shift when this is one of the groups where Biden’s approvals haven’t been as trashy as other groups.

I agree. I think most of the reasons for the red wave this year aren't Biden voters voting Republican (that is a big reason but not the main reason), but Republican turnout being record-high while Democratic turnout is record-low.
That means I think some Biden seats that might flip are seats where many presume there is a "floor" for Democrats above 50% but a high Republican floor nevertheless. Ofc people will be astounded at these wins but it can be easily explained by turnout differences. Seats like GA-02 and some of the gerrymandered Illinois seats have potential to flip for this reason.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

-Republicans flip at least one Biden +15 or higher seat
-Said seat is a predominately suburban seat due to 2016-20 trends that favored the Democrats stalling and slightly reversing.

I’m just curious more as to why the general sentiment seems to be affluent white suburban areas will have the biggest rightwards shift when this is one of the groups where Biden’s approvals haven’t been as trashy as other groups.

I agree. I think most of the reasons for the red wave this year aren't Biden voters voting Republican (that is a big reason but not the main reason), but Republican turnout being record-high while Democratic turnout is record-low.
That means I think some Biden seats that might flip are seats where many presume there is a "floor" for Democrats above 50% but a high Republican floor nevertheless. Ofc people will be astounded at these wins but it can be easily explained by turnout differences. Seats like GA-02 and some of the gerrymandered Illinois seats have potential to flip for this reason.

As a Dem, I’m more worried about seats such as the Hisapnic Central Valley seats, TX-28, TX-34, NM-02 and 3, and black belt seats where turnout could really make the difference. A lot of these more homogeneous suburban seats are still of concern but if lesser concern as turnout differentials should be less lopsided.

I agree. I mentioned the seats I did because they have high Republican floors (rural Illinois, rural Georgia) and have a theoretically high dem floor that can fall apart with low turnout (black belt voters in Georgia, Chicago suburbs). Most D+10-20 seats with a large amount of minority voters fall under this category.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Nina Turner wins OH-11 primary upsetting Shontel brown
Republicans lose a governorship in a solid R state due to a stupid statement by a candidate.
Republicans win a Senate seat that isnt even in play (Lets say like Illinois or Washington)

I think this is realistic apart from maybe the 2nd (unless maybe the guy in Kansas does something dumb?). Shontel Brown lost a lot of her best areas in the primary and gained areas that would be more favorable to Nina. It is to be seen though whether the lack of attention on the race helps Turner or Brown, last time the attention probably helped Brown because of all the out-of-state dark money coming in. I would expect Turner to have a good grassroots/ground game, but the extent of that might make the difference.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

- Biden's approval rating continues to decline until November
- John Boozman is forced into a runoff after failing to make 50% in his Senate primary

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

- John Boozman is forced into a runoff after failing to make 50% in his Senate primary

Any polling to that effect? Bold but I could understand why that might happen (unless he's more visible in the state than nationally).

There's been no polling so far, which is a shame.
He has two challengers. One is Jan Morgan, who got 30% against incumbent Governor Asa Hutchinson in 2018 and is hugely popular with the MAGA base and grassroots. The other is Superbowl-playing football star Jake Bequette, who is being funded by billionaire donors and is flooding the state with ads statewide to the point where he is getting way more searches than Boozman according to Google Trends. Boozman is not a particularly well-known or liked Senator, even among his state, so it's not like he has a base of "Boozman supporters". I think he's perhaps even more likely than Murkowski to get primaried out, even though no one's paying attention to the race.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

- Much larger Republican majority in House than expected, over 260 seats.
- Biden announces after the midterms he is not going to run in 2024.
- The Senate is not as great for Republicans as they thought it was going to be as several Democratic senators hold on.

Dems couldn't even do this in 2018 with a better battlefield. Even if this year is a red wave, the fact that there are less battleground seats will limit GOP's # of seats to be gained.

Eh I wouldn't say that. What usually happens with gerrymandering is there ends up being a lot of seats that are *just* out of reach (around 12-20% towards either party) to prioritize partisan efficiency. In a really big wave, that ends up leaving most of these packed seats as potential flips, even if in anything other than a tsunami they would be safe.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Democrats will do far better than expected.

-Limiting the House losses to 25 seats or less (I'm least confident on this)
-They will break even, possibly gaining a governorship or two
-They will break even or possibly gain a Senate seat or two; the map isn't that friendly to Republicans based upon the seats up this year.

Trump and the GOP inward split that he's creating is going to haunt the party in November.  He's goingt to drag some candidates down.

We'll see

You will be very disappointed.

His take is sane, and you still criticize him. I suppose that means I can point out that Oz won't win PA by more than five points with Shapiro on the ballot?

The GOP net losing senate seats in this environment is not sane.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Again, look at the gubernatorial and senatorial maps this year and ask yourselves where the big GOP gains are going to come from. I just don't see it.

Senate: NV, GA, AZ, NH, potentially WA or CO
Gubernatorial: PA, WI, MI, NV, KS, OR, ME, MN, NM, possibly CT or RI

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Democrats will do far better than expected.

-Limiting the House losses to 25 seats or less (I'm least confident on this)
-They will break even, possibly gaining a governorship or two
-They will break even or possibly gain a Senate seat or two; the map isn't that friendly to Republicans based upon the seats up this year.

Trump and the GOP inward split that he's creating is going to haunt the party in November.  He's goingt to drag some candidates down.

We'll see

You will be very disappointed.

Rich coming from a guy whose 'predictions' are more like wishcasting (CO will not be 'very close,' given that it was Biden+13, is trending leftwards fast, and that the GOP candidate is an extremist even by the GOP's standards).
There's a very GOP bias in your predictions and your reactions to other predictions - you're willing to accept 'hot takes' that the GOP will do massively well in 2022, including quite a few ludicrous 'predictions' that you and others have made, but if someone offers a hot take that seems like it'll help the Democrats, you're suddenly not so open-minded and very much on the offensive. I feel like you'd more readily accept the 'predictions' of a doomer like SnowLabrador than someone who predicts Democrats will do decently in 2022. When there's a very bold and unlikely claim of 260+ seats for the GOP, you simply consider it 'interesting.' On the other hand, when a less bold claim is made that the Democrats'll do good in 2022, your reaction is that they'll be 'very disappointed.' No - it is you who will be disappointed when Oz doesn't win by even 3 points (if he wins at all), when Bennet wins in CO by over 6 points, and when Perdue loses the nomination.

lol we'll see in November